Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Big Baby hurts hand, out for...

... "a while". Or 6-8 weeks. Or possibly the whole goddamn season.

The Celtics aren't confirming anything yet, but allegedly, Glen Davis got hurt in a fight with an ex-teammate from LSU. Big Baby claims it was self-defense. Whatever. Too many details are unavailable right now to get into questions about Baby's character or life decisions.

The injury brings with it a fair amount of uncertainty, too much uncertainty on the eve of the regular season. A ton of important issues are implicated.

1. The lineup. Davis was the fourth man in a five-man big rotation. Shelden Williams will step into a role that is much larger than the one contemplated for him when he was signed in the offseason. But while the player they called "The Landlord" at Duke for his control of the paint may be better defensively than Davis, he's not the offensive threat Big Baby is. If he gets all of Baby's minutes, we're in trouble. At the same, it'd be nice if we could avoid playing Kevin Garnett more minutes than planned as he returns from knee surgery. That would mean even larger roles for Kendrick Perkins and Rasheed Wallace, which they can handle, although foul trouble is always a concern for Perk. To the extent that Doc Rivers was planning on going big up front at times with Perk/KG/'sheed, that'll likely have to wait.

Brian Scalabrine, when healthy, will get some minutes at the four. It's at least possible that Doc will go small with Marquis Daniels or J.R. Giddens at the four, but I can't really see that working.

2. The roster. The Celtics' roster already contains the maximum 15 players, so in order to add a player, it'd have to be through a trade. Scalabrine and Tony Allen, as expiring contracts who make minimal contributions on the floor, are the most attractive options to move; one could make the case that they are still on the Celtics roster almost solely as trade pieces to acquire depth later on in the year. One or both (or Giddens) could theoretically be moved for big man help now.

There are a couple of problems with this, however. One, any team that took on Scal and/or Tony in exchange for a useful player would be doing so at the expense of their product this year, something teams are reluctant to do this early in the season for fear of alienating their fan base. Second, the Celtics front office might want to hang onto these assets for later in the season, when more players may be available and the team's needs for the stretch run are more apparent.

3. Home court advantage. On the other hand, the team may want to move quickly to preserve any shot it has of being the top seed in the East.

I was going to write a separate post on this, but it's appropriate here. The Orlando Magic, with their depth, are best-positioned to end the regular season with the best record in the conference. That doesn't necessarily make them the favorite to return to the Finals; playoff series are typically decided by the five players on the floor at the beginning and end of games, and Boston's better 1 through 6. But Orlando's depth makes them the team best equipped to handle the off nights and nagging injuries that are inevitable in an 82-game season.

However, the Magic will be without their starting small forward, Rashard Lewis, for the first ten games of this season thanks to a suspension. Orlando's schedule isn't exactly a gauntlet during that stretch, but if they do slip up some, it'd be nice to be able to take advantage of it. Losing early games might put Boston in a hole that is too deep to get out of.

* * *

I keep telling myself not to panic or get too worked up about this. We played a big chunk of last year without Kevin Garnett, and played well. Surely we can deal with the loss -- however long it may be -- of Davis.

At the same time, it's not the way we wanted to start the season, and we're now another frontcourt injury short from really being in trouble. As long as Davis is out, even just one missed game from Perkins or KG or Wallace -- possible, likely even, given their injury histories -- could be close to an automatic L.

Moreover, it's just unsettling to start the season this way.

* * *
VIEWING ALERT: First game of the new season. Celtics at Cavaliers, 7:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

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