Monday, February 28, 2011

Boston 107, Utah 102

Deron Williams or no Deron Williams -- he was traded to New Jersey right before the deadline for Devin Harris and Derrick Favors -- beating the Jazz in Utah is always good.


Feeling like some bullets tonight:
  • The biggest shot of the night came from Ray Allen, who hit a 23-foot fadeaway over Andrei Kirilenko to put Boston up 103-99 with 53 seconds left. But the second-biggest shot came from Rajon Rondo, who hit a pullup 15-footer on the next Boston possession, answering an Al Jefferson bucket. Sure, there was no Jazz defender in sight, but that's the point. If he hits a few more of those in crunch time, teams might re-think their defensive strategy. Sagging off of him would almost certainly still be the correct play, but there aren't too many NBA coaches who are going to be comfortable letting an All-Star point guard shoot wide-open jumpers inside the three-point arc with a playoff game or series on the line. And that, in turn, will open things up for the rest of the Celtics.
  • I have to assume that part of the reason Danny Ainge was willing to trade Kendrick Perkins is that Glen Davis had been playing the crunch-time minutes at the power forward position, with Kevin Garnett sliding over to center. But Davis has been so bad offensively lately -- missing open jumpers, taking impossible shots in the post, committing turnovers -- that he isn't an upgrade over Perk at that end, at least not right now. All the chatter lately has been about Nenad Krstic and Jeff Green and the (hopefully) eventual return to health of Shaquille O'Neal, but the real key come playoff time is who is on the floor at the end of the game. And right now Davis is a liability on both ends; offensively for the reasons just mentioned, defensive if for no other reason that he forces Garnett to guard the opposing team's 5.
  • "The opposing team's 5" tonight was old friend Al Jefferson, jettisoned to Minnesota in the Kevin Garnett deal, then shipped to Utah this past offseason to make room for ... Darko Milicic. (Really.) Big Al J had a monster game, with 28 points and 19 rebounds, drawing fourth-quarter doubles that created open three-point looks, which -- thankfully for the Cs -- his teammates couldn't knock down. I love watching Al play well. He's really become the focus of the offense in Utah, and it's good to see him in a situation where he can succeed.
  • Boston isn't going to run into Jefferson and the Jazz in the playoffs, but they could very well see Orlando's Dwight Howard and the Lakers' Andrew Bynum. And watching Jefferson go to work on Boston tonight was cause for concern. Shaq and Krstic can't guard elite centers. Jermaine O'Neal might be able to, but his health is no sure thing. Garnett can do it for stretches, but it's hard to imagine it working for a full series, at least not without serious adverse effects to Garnett's offense. A recurring theme among the things I don't like about the Perkins trade will be how Danny and Doc have really gambled on not having to deal with those two teams during the playoffs.
  • Speaking of The Trade That Shall Live In Infamy, Krstic impressed me, again. He's got a nice little offensive game and is much more active on the boards that I thought he'd be. He's not very good defensively, but considering I wasn't expecting anything out of him when we got him, he's been a pleasant surprise.
  • Green, on the other hand, struggled, again. He's obviously (and understandably) still very uncomfortable in his new surroundings, but he put up a couple bad- to atrocious-looking shots -- jump hooks jumpers, stuff that should come naturally and not be affected due to lack of familiarity with the offense. Defensively, he had a nice block (his second in two games) but he also was taken to school by Kirilenko. Again, there's time, but it's only about a month.
  • Delonte West didn't play after spraining his ankle in a light workout on Sunday. (Can the guy please get a break?) Rookie Avery Bradley came in and did a nice job backing up Rondo, including a made jumper and a nice and-one drawing contact from Favors on a drive (he missed the free throw). Six shots in six minutes is probably a few too many for a guy who struggles with his J, but it was a good performance.
Back home Wednesday night against Phoenix. The next national TV game is Sunday afternoon against Milwaukee, and if you don't have League Pass, it's one you'll want to catch. Boston doesn't play on national TV again until the end of the month.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Boston 99, Los Angeles Clippers 92

[recap] [box score]

Boston won in LA against the Clippers for the first time in three seasons, in large part due to a terrific defensive effort in the second half. Of course, that's not something to crow too much about, given that the Clippers are a) the Clippers, and b) without either part of their starting backcourt. So I'm going to limit my discussion of this game to the first impression of the new guys.

I should stress first impression, because it'd be unfair to judge them based on one game 48 hours after being traded.

Jeff Green looked lost, which is understandable, given the circumstances. Most of his touches on offense came in the post, as Doc tried to get him comfortable despite his unfamiliarity with Boston's sets. He didn't do too much to impress me down there, but again, it's one game. His ability to operate down there will come in handy, and it's better than him shooting threes at a 30 percent clip, but it's imperative that he get integrated into the offense quickly. Between him and Glen Davis, the ball stopped an awful lot. Green's effectiveness for the rest of the year will depend on how quickly he can get comfortable, so that Boston doesn't have to run specific plays for him.

Nenad Krstic made the bigger impression. He had nine points and six rebounds, with all of his boards coming on the offensive end. He was much more active and agile then I thought he'd be, and though he did all of his scoring around the rim, I know he's got range out to 15 feet or so. He had a nice-looking turnaround J from the baseline from about ten feet that didn't drop, but it's a shot I'm comfortable with him taking.

I remember liking Krstic early in his career, when he averaged 10 points and 5.4 boards per game as a rookie in New Jersey, then 13.5 and 6.4 in his sophomore campaign. His third year got off to a great start; he scored in double figures in all but three of the Nets' first 26 games in 2006-07, averaging better than 16 points along the way. But he tore his ACL against the Lakers that year, and he only played a combined 91 games the next two seasons. He did get manage 76 games last season with the Thunder, posting averages of 8.4 points and five rebounds per game.

The point is, maybe Krstic isn't just a throw-in. He's still youngish (he's had that same thinning hair since he's been in the league), his injury problems may be behind him, and he's much more skilled offensively than Kendrick Perkins was. His rebounding and especially his defense are going to be an issue, particularly against teams like Orlando and Chicago and the Lakers, but he's an offensive upgrade. So, while the expected payoff of the trade was that the Celtics could go small at crunch time, Krstic's presence means that they can go big, too, without having to worry about Shaquille O'Neal's free throw shooting.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Goodbye, Perk

Last night, a make-shift Boston Celtics team went scoreless in the final six minutes, ceding the final 16 points in an 89-75 loss to the revamped Denver Nuggets.

Why make-shift? Boston only had nine active players, including D-League call-up Chris Johnson, who scored six points and blocked three shots after being signed to a ten-day contract earlier in the day. And why were the Celtics so depleted? Thursday was the league's trade deadline, and the Celtics were unexpectedly active. The carnage:
  • Marquis Daniels, who reportedly was going to miss the rest of the season, was sent to Sacramento, along with cash considerations, for a protected second-round pick in 2017.
  • Semih Erden and Luke Harangody were shipped to Cleveland for a second-round pick in 2013.
  • Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson were traded to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic.
Giving Celtics GM Danny Ainge the benefit of the doubt (something I'm having a hard time doing right now) requires that we recognize that the picture is not yet complete. A bunch of guys are about to have their contracts bought out by their teams, and some of them may show up in Boston. That possibility explains away the trade of Erden and Harangody, promising rookies who were each worth at least a second-rounder themselves.

But this post is not about Erden and Harangody. It's not about Troy Murphy or Rip Hamilton or anybody else who may become a Celtic in the coming days. And be warned: It's not entirely about basketball, either.

***

We'll start with basketball, though, because when all is said and done, there's still a season to be played, a championship to be won, redemption to be earned. Green is the big piece coming to Boston. He's a three who's played the whole of his four-year career out of position as a four, because the Thunder already have a pretty good small forward. I liked him a lot when he was at Georgetown, because of his terrific passing in John Thompson's Princeton offense. I'm less bullish on him as a pro, not so much due to what I've seen (I don't watch OKC very much), but from what I've read and heard from people whose basketball opinions I trust. SI.com's Zach Lowe:
Green is not as good as most folks believe he is ... [He] grabs a lower percentage of defensive rebounds than [Paul] Pierce, and [his] presence on the court has consistently turned the Thunder into a porous defensive team.
My buddy Colin:
Jeff Green 100% sucks.
To be fair, not everyone shares these views. As Lowe himself points out, respected veteran writers Peter May, Ian Thomsen, and Bob Ryan all have higher opinions of Green. But the defensive and rebounding numbers don't lie. His scoring average in OKC (15.2 this season, 14.2 in three-plus career seasons) does lie, however, at least a little bit: He's shooting just 43.7 percent from the floor and around 30 percent from three-point land for the season, despite playing with supremely talented offensive players Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

Of course, the system in which you play means something. So it's possible that Green won't be a defensive liability in Boston, and that his offensive efficiency will improve in his new environment. I have more confidence in the latter than in the former; the Thunder have been a good defensive outfit with Green off the floor, but Boston's got some pretty good offensive players of their own and from what I've seen OKC does a fair amount of standing around shooting jumpers.

Krstic is okay; a decent shooter for his size, but below average on defense and on the glass.

***

The stated rationale for the trade is that with Daniels out (and possibly even if Daniels were healthy), the Celtics desperately needed wing help. In addition to now having someone to spell Pierce, Doc Rivers pointed out that the addition of Green allows him to go "go small" the way he did in the championship year, with Green taking the place of James Posey.

That's true, but the key to that lineup in 2007-08 was James Posey's defense. Offensively, Posey did little more than stretch the floor with his three-point shooting. Green has a more diverse offensive game, but his three-ball is suspect. But more importantly, there's little evidence that Green can have anywhere near the defensive impact that Posey had.

Relatedly, ESPN's John Hollinger and others have theorized that this move was made with the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs in mind, which is noteworthy for the reverse implication that it means that Boston is no longer concerned with the Orlando Magic or Los Angeles Lakers. The Heat and Spurs are perimeter-oriented, and the thought is that Kevin Garnett can handle Chris Bosh and Tim Duncan in a small lineup that would allow Boston to match up better 1 through 4.

Whether that's true, it's not as if having an elite defensive center like Perkins is a liability. And what happens if Boston does have to deal with Orlando and Dwight Howard, or the Lakers -- the two-time defending champions, after all, with Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum inside -- wake up in the playoffs? And, for that matter, what about Chicago's formidable tandem of Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah?

We don't know who is going to be bought out just yet, but we do know the rumors, and the rumors say that there are a lot more wing players about to become available than there are true centers. I've got to think we'd have been better off with adding a wing that way (or via trade -- we really couldn't get anybody for Semih and some draft pick?) and keeping Perk.

Ainge also defended the trade thusly:
The numbers show that he's been better with our starters. We beat all the good teams in the league while Kendrick was out, and that gives you a little more comfort.

I'm not sure exactly what numbers he's talking about, but I have the following problems with this argument:
  • The regular season and the playoffs are different animals. Doc and Danny should know this. Beating Miami and Chicago and the Spurs in October, December, or January is a hell of a lot different than being them in best-of-seven series' in May and June.
  • We beat the Lakers, Heat, and Magic with Perkins in the lineup.
  • We won a championship with Perk in 2007-08, and probably lost one in 2009-10 because we didn't have him for Games 6 and 7.
  • Whatever comfort Danny takes in how the team has played with Shaq should be tempered by the fact that Shaq's availability is hardly a sure thing. Right now, he's sitting out with injuries more or less related to being nearly 39 and in his 20th NBA season. He's not hurt so much as he's hurting. And the odometer isn't running backwards. If Danny and Doc have taken his availability for granted, then they've made a grave mistake.
  • Some of Danny's comments seem to suggest that at least some of the motivation was that Shaq is better with the starters than he is with the second unit. I have my doubts about the truth of that statement, as Shaq's inability to play help defense without fouling is exacerbated when he's on the floor against the opposition's elite scorers, but even if it's true, trading your starting center is a weird way to solve the problem of your backup center being ill-suited to being a backup center.
***

This isn't a move for the long-term, either. It's true that Boston was likely to lose Perkins to free agency in the offseason. He had previously turned down Boston's offer of a contract extension worth $22 million over four years, which is basically the limit of what Boston could offer him under current rules. He was likely to be overvalued in the offseason, and someone else was going to pay him more than we could.

But Green doesn't necessarily fit into Boston's long-term plans, either. Green has always been a favorite of Doc's and Danny's, but his contract extension talks with the Thunder broke down in October and he'll be a restricted free agent after this season. Assuming some team will want to give Green starter's money, the Celtics will have to give Green something similar to what they offered Perk if they want to keep him, and at the expense of re-signing someone like Glen Davis. It's a high price to pay for someone who plays Paul Pierce's position. And while Green may provide more sign-and-trade options than Perkins would have, there's also less chance that Green takes a discount to re-sign with Boston, whereas Perk at least theoretically could have changed his mind.

Also, while Boston did receive a first-round pick in the trade, it's the Clippers', and it's top-ten protected through 2016. The Clips are on the way up, but the franchise has a history of mismanagement and it may be a long time before we see any payoff from that pick. We've spent so much to win as many championships as possible in this window. I don't care, and neither should anyone else, who we might get with that first a few years from now.

***

That leads us to a discussion of the collateral damage from the trade. From a pure basketball standpoint, it puts home court advantage in the East in real jeopardy. Boston's depleted roster lost to the Nuggets Thursday night, but Chicago's loss to Toronto on Wednesday and subsequent defeat of Miami preserves the status quo atop the East. For now. Boston has two more games on this road trip without Shaq, meaning that they must play the Clippers and Jazz with Krstic as their only center. Hopefully Shaq will be back after that, but who knows. Additionally, Boston will be shorthanded until the buyouts happen. And then those players, along with Green and Krstic, will have to be integrated into our system. (Let me point out, to those who think Green will provide a nice offensive boost, that Doc couldn't get Robinson integrated into the offense last year, and while some of this has to do with Robinson's negative basketball IQ, I'm not at all convinced that Green is going to blend in well any time soon.)

Secondly, this rips the heart out of so many of Boston's key players. Pierce, KG, Allen, and Rondo may be Boston's Big Four to the rest of the basketball world, but those aren't terms they use internally. Perk and Rondo were extremely close friends. Garnett spoke of it being like losing a family member, not a teammate. This was probably the closest starting five in the NBA, and now its gone.

Boston's vets, as professionals, will no doubt regroup and give it their all the rest of the way. Green and Krstic are teammates now, and no one is going to hold the loss of Perkins against them. But even so, there's very little chance that either will truly succeed this year. The prevailing attitude of almost every Boston fan I know was that the Celtics were going to win the title. Whether that was a reasonable expectation, as it now stands, if Boston fails in that goal, in everyone's mind it will be because of this trade.

***

Many times over the past few seasons, the tiny microphone Rivers wears during nationally-televised games has picked up him urging his charges to trust each other. That trust, which won Boston a ring and got them an injury or two away from perhaps two more, was built up over the course of an intense 2007-08 campaign. Upon what basis can the veteran Celtics be reasonably expected to trust Green and Krstic? And should they trust Doc and Danny that this move is in their best interest, after they more or less stabbed their friend Perk in the back?

Because that, truly, is what they did. After Perk signed a hometown-discounted exception four seasons ago, after Ubuntu and "Boston is a brotherhood" and "We not me,"after all the talk about Boston's starting lineup having never lost a playoff series together and them coming back for one more shot at a title, they traded Perk out of the blue.

Here's the brutal irony. Perkins, as you know, tore his ACL in Game 6 of the Finals last year. He had surgery in early July. The very optimistic target for his return to the floor was after the All-Star Break this year.

But that wasn't good enough for Perkins. He worked his ass off rehabbing his knee and came back even earlier than that original optimistic target, making his season debut on January 25 against Cleveland. His reward for all the hard work? Being traded away from his brothers at the deadline. Had Perk not worked so hard and returned after a more reasonable amount of time, Oklahoma City never would have had enough confidence in his health to pull the trigger on this trade. Perk's loyalty to the franchise paved the way for the franchise to betray him.

I've long understood, or thought I had, that basketball is a business. There's been a lot of hand-wringing recently over how LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony, among others, have manipulated which team they play for. I never liked it, either -- I guess I was latching onto whatever ideals I held about how professional sports should work. But this trade is a poignant example of why they do. If the Boston Celtics can break up this core, this way, in the middle of this season, then I'm not sure that loyalty from a team to a player does exist. And if there's no loyalty there, then I see no reason to hold the players to a higher standard.

***

I'm a relatively recent Perkins convert. Even during the championship run, his offensive ineptitude and occasional on-court petulance drove me crazy, to the point were I distinctly remember typing in an email or instant message to someone during that season: "If Kendrick Perkins were in front of me right now, I would punch him in the face."

But he improved and matured, and I started watching more closely and digesting more and more information about the team once I started writing this blog. And I came to appreciate not only his hard work and terrific defense, but his deceptively bright personality, his loyalty, and his value as a teammate.

It's taken me a day of reflection and four hours of typing to write this post. I've been fluctuating among hopeful optimism that I'm wrong, anger, and acute sadness. I still love the Celtics, individually and as a whole, even though my perception of the tradition of the franchise has been tarnished somewhat. I still love this year's team. I just love it a little bit less than I did yesterday morning.

Goodbye and good luck, Perk. We'll miss you.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Trade Deadline Blues

Bottom line: Kendrick Perkins, Nate Robinson, Marquis Daniels, Semih Erden, and Luke Harangody are out. In are Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic, a couple of draft picks, and a whole lot of questions regarding who Danny Ainge plans to bring in once buyouts start happening.

I'll post substantively tomorrow. For now, this pretty much sums up how I feel.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Boston 115, Golden State 93

We'll get to the game in a minute. First, a few words about Bill Walton.


The former Celtic filled in as color commentator alongside play-by-play man Mike Gorman for Tuesday night's broadcast. (Tommy Heinsohn doesn't often make the West Coast swings these days.)

I've done a complete 360 in my opinion of Walton, the broadcaster. (I've always appreciated Walton, the player, though I've only been able live his career through listening to others talk about him, because I was just a little too young to remember him.) Like many, I grew tired of Walton's boorish exaggerations ("John Stockton is one of the true marvels, not just of basketball, or in America, but in the history of Western Civilization!") and forced catchphrases ("Throw it down, big fella, throw it down!"). Over time, however, I came to appreciate him. He's still over the top, but he knows he's over the top. I don't want to use the term "schtick" because Walton's enthusiasm is genuine, but he certainly has a modus operandi.

One of his tendencies is to poke fun at middling NBA players, either by insulting them outright ("The only way Danny Schayes is getting into the Hall of Fame is if he pays the admission fee") or by so exaggerating their abilities that you know his tongue is planted firmly in his cheek ("If Eric Piatkowski continues playing at this level, he's going to replace Jerry West on the NBA logo.")* Tonight's target? Warriors starting center Andris Biedrins, who has fallen off a cliff -- he went from averaging 12 points and 11 rebounds two seasons ago to five and eight last year -- despite not yet turning 25. In the first quarter alone, Walton dropped the following gems:
  • After Biedrins fouled Kevin Garnett: "You don't want fouls on Biedrins, if you're Boston. You want him in the game."
  • A few moments later: "What does this Biedrins fellow do?"
  • After Biedrins bricked a pair of free throws when Delonte West, who had missed the last 39 games with a broken wrist, entered the game for the first time: "Biedrins is the one who looks like he has a broken wrist."
  • And finally, after Biedrins missed a layup: "He's playing scared. He's playing ... like his feet hurt."
No, I don't know what the last one means, either. And yes, it's probably unnecessarily mean to pick on Biedrins. But it's Walton, and we, as Celtics fans, can forgive him. His undying loyalty to the franchise probably colors my opinion of him.

Walton's playing career, of course, was abbreviated due to injury, and it appeared that his broadcasting career would similarly be cut short thanks to a debilitating back condition. Walton has taken a lot of time off from the microphone in recent years. I'm not sure if he's planning on making the rest of the trip with the Celtics or whether this was a one-shot deal because the Cs were in his native California -- and I won't be able to tell (the Celtics play on TNT on Thursday and at the Clippers on Saturday, which means I get the local broadcast here in LA instead of the Boston telecast on League Pass). But it's good to see him healthy enough to put on the headset, even if only for a few hours.

Bullets:
  • Walton and the numerous Celtics fans in attendance at Oakland's Oracle arena were treated to a vintage Rajon Rondo performance. 19/6/15 with two steals, and one of those nights where it just feels like he can get wherever he wants, whenever he wants.
  • Kendrick Perkins banged knees with someone in the third quarter and didn't return. It doesn't seem serious, and it's the left knee, which is not the one he ripped up in the Finals last year. Something to watch, but probably nothing to worry about long-term. The short term is a different story; Boston has to keep winning to stay ahead of Miami in the race for home-court advantage in the East, so even a brief Perkins absence -- especially with Shaq still out -- could be disproportionately costly.
  • This was Boston's first win in Golden State in seven years, which is fairly remarkable considering that the Warriors have made the playoffs once in the previous six seasons and compiled a combined record of 213 wins and 279 losses over that time (they are 26-30 this year).
  • One thing that makes playing the Warriors so difficult is that they have some really talented offensive players. After a poor defensive showing in a first half in which they surrendered 60 points, the Celtics held Golden State to just 33 second-half points.
  • Another thing that is difficult about playing the Warriors is their style. They have no conscience whatsoever, and opposing players can get caught up in the hoist-the-first-halfway-decent-shot-you-get mentality. Nate Robinson fell victim to this a couple of times, though at this point it might be safe to just assume that Nate will always do the wrong thing.
  • Fortunately, Golden State is really quite bad defensively (they are second in the league in steals, but that's due in large part to the pace of the game -- more possessions for the other team means more steals, and they do encourage more risk-taking on the part of the opposition's offense). Their deficiencies on that end allowed Boston to win handily despite a 14-point deficit at the free throw line.
Next game is at Denver on Thursday, at 10:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT. In their first game without Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups** -- and with the quartet of players from the Knicks not yet in uniform -- the Nuggets hung 120 points on Memphis Tuesday night in a comfortable win. It's still too early to say what the new-look Nuggets are going to be like, but my money's on a continued emphasis on running (Ty Lawson is better-suited to an uptempo game than Billups) and the three-point shot. Wilson Chandler, acquired from the Knicks, brings a little bit of a defensive mindset that was lacking in every key Denver player other than Arron Afflalo, so there might be some minor improvements there. But probably not enough to worry about, though I might well be underestimating the "We're out to show everyone that we don't need 'melo" factor.

*All the past Walton quotes come from this Web page, which has a great compilation of his hits.

** Thoughts on the Carmelo Anthony trade:

1) There was a time when I was pretty sick of all the trade talk, but by the time the deal was close to being done, I found the whole thing very interesting. It was really a staring contest between Anthony, the Nuggets, and the Nets, with the Knicks sort of lingering around the outside. The Nets had extended the Nuggets a Godfather offer: Very-good-but-not-great point guard Devin Harris, promising rookie big Derrick Favors, the third overall pick in last summer's draft, and an incredible four first-round picks. It was a better deal than the itself attractive package the Knicks were offering, which was breakout PG Raymond Felton, Chandler, sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari, and bruising Timofey Mozgov, plus a first and two seconds, but it came with a caveat: New Jersey wouldn't pull the trigger unless Anthony signed an extension.

Once the Knicks -- Anthony's preferred destination -- upped their offer to include Gallinari, it was good enough for the Nuggets to take, which effectively gave no teeth to New Jersey's insistence that Anthony sign an extension prior to a deal going through. Anthony could more or less insist he be shipped to New York under those circumstances by refusing to sign a contract extension, which I'm guessing he did (because I believe Denver would rather have taken Jersey's offer).

Of course, the Nets could have called Anthony's bluff. 'Melo didn't have a no-trade clause or something similar that they were trying to get him to waive; he was just using the extension as a tool to get what he wanted. New Jersey could have rolled the dice by doing the deal anyway, forcing 'Melo to decide between signing an extension with a depleted Nets squad and losing tens of millions of dollars in free agency.

Here's the thing. 'Melo signed an extension worth three years and $65 million. Because of rules that allow teams to pay their own free agents more, that's more than he would have made in the first three years of a new contract with the Knicks in free agency (my calculations have it at around $6 million more, but my understanding of this part of the CBA is severely lacking).

But that's the current CBA, which expires this summer. It's a near-certainty that the new agreement will restrict player salaries below what they currently are, and thus the difference between signing an extension and waiting for free agency could easily climb into the tens of millions of dollars. So the Nets could simply have called Anthony's bluff and agreed to the trade, banking on Anthony not wanting to give up that much money. The same holds true for the Nuggets; Anthony said he wouldn't sign an extension, but if Denver wasn't getting value for him, it might have been a good strategy to simply hang on to him and hope he'd stick around for the money. It's a lot of money to give up.

Instead, the Nets and Nuggets blinked and the Knicks and Anthony got what they wanted.

2. Or, at least, what they think they wanted. Anthony has non-basketball reasons for wanting to play in New York, and I can't criticize those. And I can't say that I think it's a bad move, necessarily, for the Knicks. But I do think it's hardly a sure thing that the Knicks will be materially better for it, both now and in the future.

For starters, I think there are serious deficiencies with a Anthony-Amare' Stoudemire core. There's no commitment to defense in either of those players, and head coach Mike D'Antoni is famously focused on offense. Even if we assume that Boston will be out of the picture after this year and that Orlando has irrevocably screwed up its team with its trades this year, the Knicks are still going to have to deal with Miami and Chicago for the next several years. Both are outstanding defensive teams that aren't slouches on the offensive end, either. You can't beat either of them in a seven-game series simply by being very good on offense, and at best, that's all the Knicks will be: very good on offense. Additionally, the pairs and trios of stars that have worked of late have worked because of complementary skill sets: The Big Three in Boston, for example, work because they fit together (Garnett on the inside, Paul Pierce as a slasher, Ray Allen as a shooter), because of Rondo, and because Garnett can affect a game so profoundly without doing much offensively; LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh have worked in Miami because of defense and James' uncanny passing ability. A couple of guys who need the ball a ton -- paired with a point guard, Billups, who isn't a traditional playmaker and might not be a great fit, at his age, for D'Antoni's offense -- don't really fit together all that well.

Secondly, if we think of these teams as engaging in some sort of arms race, the Knicks are already one star behind Miami. The new CBA might even make it all but impossible to build a core consisting of three studs the way the Heat have. But even if it doesn't -- even if, say, Chris Paul or Deron Williams makes it to New York the offseason after this one to take Billups' place -- they'll be a full two years behind in chemistry. And the way things are currently set up, with the draft and various salary cap exceptions, you can add a player or two per year to your core. That is, the Heat, having already assembled their "Big Three," can start adding role players to join Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem this offseason. The Knicks will have to make do with surprising rookie Landry Fields alongside Anthony and Stoudemire, saving their cap room until they can get another stud, and then adding free agents in the seasons following. So they'll be another player behind Miami because of that, too.

This all assumes that the model the Heat have followed is a successful one. Time will tell on that, though it certainly can be argued that competing with James/Wade/Bosh is too tall a task for Anthony/Stoudemire/whomever.

3. Again, I'm not saying it was a bad deal for the Knicks. They'd placated their fan base for two years by explaining that they were clearing cap room for a big move last year, and having missed out on James, they needed to do something. And they might not have wanted Anthony to go to the Nets, who are scheduled to move to Brooklyn in a couple of years. (I think this is overstated, though, as is the argument that Anthony will drum up interest in the team. That's a decent argument for most NBA franchises, but not the Knicks, one of the league's most popular outfits. They've got no problems selling tickets and merch at MSG.) But I don't think it gets tem any closer to contending for a title, this year or beyond.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Thoughts in Between the Lakers and the Heat

First of all, congratulations to Ray Allen on becoming the all-time three-point king. Prior to his arrival in Boston, my exposure to Ray was more or less limited to his days at UConn. It wasn't until he came over from Seattle in 2007-08 that I truly appreciated what a beautiful shooter he is. Despite that, I'd be lying if I said I didn't get a little emotional watching the Boston crowd salute him during the break after the first quarter. He helped us win at least one championship. He's one of us now.

Anyway, moving on, the Celtics lost to the Lakers on Thursday. Give credit to LA for playing a smart game, especially Kobe Bryant. In essence, they played the way I and so many others have repeatedly said they need to play in order to beat the Celtics: focus on their advantage in the post. What was especially impressive was how patient the Lakers were, not panicking as Boston built a 15-point lead. Bryant didn't try to do too much; he had faith in his teammates as they closed to within striking distance at halftime. Kobe came alive in the third quarter as the Lakers took the lead (and retook it after Boston briefly surged back ahead). But LA was able to extend the lead in the fourth quarter even with Kobe on the bench.

More than anything, I see Thursday's loss as making Danny Ainge think even harder about going out and getting another small forward before the trade deadline, with Marquis Daniels' return this season uncertain. Scott Foster hit Allen with his fourth foul on a dubious call midway through the third, and Doc Rivers' only real option on the bench was Von Wafer. Wafer's offense has really come around lately and he's worked harder on defense than I previously thought him capable of, but he's not going to be able to hang with Kobe. And while Delonte West may be able to help with that specific matchup, he won't be able to help with, say, LeBron James. And someone other than Paul Pierce is going to have to guard James for stretches should the Celtics meet the Heat in the playoffs.

What that move might be, I don't know. I don't know who's available, and I don't know what we're willing to offer. We don't have many attractive expiring contracts, and our rookies don't make enough money to bring in any significant salary. But both Doc and Danny suggested in the days after Daniels' injury that a move might need to be made, and Thursday night couldn't have done anything but strengthen that opinion.

The temptation, by the way, is to blame injuries on Thursday's loss. Boston started the game with just ten men in uniform, and in the second quarter, Nate Robinson joined West, Daniels, Jermaine O'Neal, Shaquille O'Neal, and Semih Erden on the list of unavailable players, victim of a bruised knee. But as a Celtics fan pointed out on a Laker message board after the game, Boston's starters played plenty of minutes, substantially the amount of minutes you might expect with a full complement of bench players. And the second unit actually did alright -- the game was lost with our starters on the floor.

I do think that simplifies things a bit, and not having a real backup for Allen is a problem that would be solved in this instance if either Daniels or West was healthy. But Boston's starters didn't play well enough for fans to complain that a healthy bench would have made a difference. It might on any one particular night, but it won't for a whole playoff series. If I was going to make an excuse, I'd point to the illness that kept Pierce out of practice on Wednesday. He didn't look to be close to 100% in the game.

As Sports Illustrated's Zach Lowe (a former Celtics Hub writer) pointed out, the Lakers were successful defensively by sagging Kobe off of Rajon Rondo, daring Rondo to beat them with jumpers while Kobe disrupted passing and driving lanes. (Read that Lowe article if you're interested in the Xs and Os.) LA has defended Boston like this for several years now, with varying degrees of success. (A flashback to the 07-08 Finals provides a good example. The Lakers used it to jump out to their huge lead in Game 4; Boston's historic comeback came with Eddie House on the floor. Rondo was similarly in effective in Boston's Game 5 loss, playing just 14:32, but was masterful in the Game 6 clincher in Boston.)

Clearly, there are offensive adjustments that can be made (and have been made in the past). For starters, Rondo can be more aggressive. Boston can bring its offense out higher, leaving more room underneath for Rondo to maneuver on penetration. Rondo can attack the defense from somewhere other than the top of the key, forcing the Lakers to pay more attention to him (if, say, he starts closer to the basket). And I'm sure Doc has plenty of other ideas.

But I'm not sure we'll see such adjustments any time soon, even if another team picks up this strategy. The lack of adjustment in the Lakers game suggests to me that perhaps Doc doesn't want to tip his hand. The Lakers' defensive strategy isn't new. Surely, he has a plan for it. But I can see how he wouldn't want to reveal that plan until necessary -- until the games count, in May and June.

Lowe also mentions the possibility that Miami, Boston's opponent on Sunday, also has the personnel to employ such a strategy, while a team like Orlando does not. Thinking about the Heat though, I'm not so sure. Matching up position-by-position across the perimeter, it would be Rondo-Mario Chalmers, Allen-Dwyane Wade, Pierce-James. Los Angeles executes the strategy by switching Derek Fisher -- a strong, crafty veteran -- on Allen, with Kobe playing free agent. While I think Wade can be effective in the Kobe role, I'm skeptical that Chalmers (or Carlos Arroyo) can handle Ray the way Fisher can.

The other option, and the think the one Lowe had in mind, is to have James sag off Rondo with Mike Miller checking Pierce (and Wade staying on Allen). Miller was unavailable during the teams' first two meetings, but with James and Wade, the Heat don't need a true point guard. I'm honestly not sure of Miller's defensive abilities, but thing that weighs in Boston's favor here is that unlike Allen, whose game is largely based on running off a maze of screens, Pierce is plenty comfortable with the ball in his hands. Therefore, Boston could iso Pierce on any part of the floor that it wanted, keeping the extra defender as far away from him as possible. Pierce excels at the pull-up jumper, too, which is perfect for this kind of situation, because he can get off a good shot before the help gets there. The one thing he needs to be careful of is his tendency to turn his back; that's just asking for James to swoop in for a steal and dunk.

Something to watch for, anyway. And you better be watching. Sunday, 1 p.m. Eastern, ABC. First place in the East is on the line.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Charlotte 94, Boston 89

Excuses, anyone?

[recap] [box score]

The most obvious excuse for the loss is that Monday's contest was a classic "trap" game, the day after a big game with Orlando, with the Lakers and Heat on the horizon. Throw in the fact that this was a road game on the second night of a back-to-back -- CelticsBlog reports that the Cs are now 2-7 in such situations this season -- and yeah, we should have seen it coming.

Another possible excuse is that five Boston bench players -- fully one-third of the roster -- were out with injuries. Sure, we've gotten used to life without Delonte West and Jermaine O'Neal, but this was the first game since Marquis Daniels' freak neck injury, and the team was missing a couple other centers, too (Shaquille O'Neal and Semih Erden -- by the way, is there another NBA team that has four centers?). We can't expect to win games at the same rate we were winning -- even against the Bobcats -- with such limited personnel. Right?

The thing is, Boston's bench was okay tonight. Not great; just okay, and admittedly, we'll need better than "okay" from the second unit now and in the playoffs if we're going to reach our goals of another chip. But it was the Celtics starters that lost this game, not the bench. What's even more interesting is that Boston's starting five -- a group that includes four Eastern Conference All-Stars -- was outplayed down the stretch by Charlotte's reserves.

Gerald Wallace was the only Charlotte starter to play meaningful minutes in the fourth quarter. Running the point was 6-7 Shaun Livingston, whose size made him a much tougher matchup than the man he backs up, D.J. Augustin. Livingston finished with 18 points. At the shooting guard spot, Gerald Henderson -- yes, the son of that Gerald Henderson -- replaced Stephen Jackson (abruptly ejected in the second quarter for protesting too much) and used his size and fresh legs to repeatedly burn Ray Allen on his way to 15 points on a variety of pull-ups and drives to the basket. Eduardo Najera came in for Boris Diaw (who was having one of those inconsistent, nearly invisible nights that make him Boris Diaw) and in addition to providing his trademark toughness, hit a huge three-pointer that pushed the lead from three to six in the closing minutes. And Nazr Mohammed manned the pivot in place of Kwame Brown. Mohammed didn't do a whole lot, but one of the things he didn't do was shoot one-for-nine, which Brown did do. At one point in the second half, Brown airballed an unconsted ten-foot jumper, missing left by at least a foot; at another point, he managed to leave a one-foot jump hook short. It's called addition by subtraction. (To his credit, Brown did grab 12 rebounds -- though this isn't much of an accomplishment for someone 6-11 who played in a basketball game in which 91 shots were missed.)

So, you know, all credit to the Bobcats. They responded well to the Jackson ejection, even though Captain Jack had carried the scoring load in the first quarter. Henderson and Livingston were mighty impressive. And credit coach Paul Silas, too. Under Silas, the Bobcats have gone 13-10 after a 9-19 start doomed the fate of Larry Brown. I like Silas, in part because he's a former Celtic (albeit a former Celtic I'm not old enough to have seen play), but mostly (and relatedly) because he's a fairly random basketball person that my mother recognizes when she sees him on TV. It's always unexpected when Mom pulls out an "Is that Paul Silas?"

From Boston's perspective, they lost this game because they weren't aggressive on offense. Rajon Rondo looked to be picking up where he left off against Orlando, scoring ten points in the first period, but then didn't score again. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen settled for too many jump shots. For whatever reason, it was a lazy offensive performance.

At any rate, the Celtics should be well-rested by the time the Lakers take to the parquet on Thursday, though they'll still be undermanned. (Of the sidelined Celtics, Erden is the only one about whom I have not heard anything that suggests that he won't be available on Thursday (or Sunday against the Heat, for that matter.) It's safe to say that the Lakers will be fired up and looking for a measure of revenge for Boston's win at their barn last month. Yes, Boston will need a stronger performance from its bench for that game. But it will also need a better, more focused performance from the starters, as well.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Boston 91, Orlando 80

[recap] [box score]

Precious little time to blog about this game, as my Internet cut out right around kickoff time yesterday and I couldn't get it restored until this morning (with a lot on my plate today).

Bullets:
  • Marquis Daniels' freak injury -- a bruised spinal cord -- is going to have him out at least a month and quite possibly longer. Daniels' personal long-term health is of course the most important concern and in that regard the news is good -- given how long he stayed on the court, it could have been a lot worse. On the court, his absence means that four of Boston's top reserves -- him, both O'Neals, and Delonte West, will likely be out of the lineup this week when Miami and the Lakers come to Boston. Thankfully, Von Wafer has played a lot better of late -- maybe he can fill some of the void Daniels leaves. Expect to see more of Luke Harangody than we have of late. The other big question will be how much Doc is willing to play Paul Pierce and Ray Allen in some of these "big" games. The Heat are bearing down on us for home-court advantage in the East.
  • Rajon Rondo was spectacular, playing as aggressively as we've seen him all year. It was the kind of game we need from him offensively against the strong defensive teams in the league. Opponents have their hands full with Pierce, Allen, and Garnett, and are willing to let Rondo beat them if he can. There'll be plenty of opportunities for Rondo to take over games like this in the playoffs, and we'll need him to do it from time to time if we're going to win a title.
  • I don't know what to make of Orlando these days, though I'm leaning heavily -- as I have been since the December trades that shook up their roster -- towards worrying less and less about them. Gilbert Arenas, plucked from Washington for Rashard Lewis, has been a disaster. He didn't score on Sunday. The other new key additions, Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson, have been decent, though inconsistent, and not a huge upgrade over Vince Carter. And the loss of Marcin Gortat, as I've said here before, gives the Magic zero reliable big man depth behind Dwight Howard -- whose petulant elbow to Kendrick Perkins' sternum on Sunday led to his 14th technical foul on the season, just two away from suspension. Getting back Brandon Bass, who is having an excellent year, will help some, but it's still a three-man rotation at the 4/5 spots (Howard, Bass, and Ryan Anderson). It's enough to win a game or two, but a whole series against a team like Boston? I don't think so.
  • Boston's at Charlotte tonight, then has the Lakers on Thursday (on TNT) and the Heat on Sunday (ABC).

Friday, February 4, 2011

Dallas 101, Boston 97

Friday's game was one of those where I was legitimately surprised that the Celtics couldn't finish the job.


It's not even that we played that well; we didn't. Our defense was terrible in the first half, as was our offensive execution over the game's final two minutes. But it just seemed -- hmm, how do I say this without taking credit away from the Mavs? -- it just seemed like we were making far more plays down the stretch than they were. Yeah, we didn't score for the final 2:42, but we came up with a bunch of great stops defensively, whereas it seemed like we were just missing shots on our end, rather than being stopped.

Anyway, I can't be too mad at the key play, a Jason Kidd three that put Dallas up two with just seconds left. The Mavs ran Jason Terry off a Dirk Nowitzki screen, with Action Dirk rolling to the basket. Boston's defense was in place; Nowitzki was free to catch the ball, but he would have had a contested shot. Terry's pass was low and Nowitzki booted it. The ball was loose just long enough for Ray Allen to react to it, leaving Kidd open in the process. Dirk recovered quickly enough to beat everyone to the ball, kicked it to Kidd, who patiently waited for Allen to fly by before knocking down the game-winner.

Allen was pretty magnificent tonight, actually, coming alive offensively in the third quarter. He also contributed a huge block of Tyson Chandler in the fourth, and battled Chandler for the rebound on a Dallas miss that ended up out of bounds to Boston. These were all things I was prepared to write about in more detail had the Celtics won. Instead, because the Cs lost, I'm forced to question the quick three-pointer Allen took under a minute to go. It would have iced the game and frankly I'm perfectly fine with him taking that look, but I'm sure some will question the shot selection.

Kendrick Perkins started tonight in place of Shaquille O'Neal, who is out with some sort of Achilles injury and probably won't play Sunday against Orlando, either. Perk was great, with 13 points and 12 boards, including a couple of tip-ins and another bucket in the fourth. He looks terrific out there, and I think it's safe to say we have our starting center back. Just in time, too; in addition to Shaq's latest malady, word came after tonight's game that Jermaine O'Neal had knee surgery and is expected back in six to eight weeks -- in other words, expected back in time to mess up the rotation. More likely, because Doc Rivers is sensitive to these things, he'll be back in time to be available in absolute emergencies. But I'm not expecting anything out of JON the rest of the year.

Kevin Garnett started really hot and then missed something like nine of his last ten shots, including a long jumper that went in and out on the possession before the Kidd dagger. He also got hit with a technical foul for pushing J.J. Barea, which isn't that big of a deal. However, during the minor fracas with Barea, he also pushed away the arm of official Eric Lewis, drawing a reprimand of sorts from ESPN play-by-play man Mike Breen.

I doubt very much it's something the league is worried about, and therefore I don't bring it up in the context of it possibly costing him some money or even a game. KG did the same thing when Steve Javie was trying to keep him away from Channing Frye in the dustup in Phoenix last week. I mention it only to draw attention to what I thought looked like unprofessional conduct from Lewis: It sure looked to me like Lewis pushed KG back after Garnett swatted his arm away.

Generally speaking, I think it's a bad idea to put your hands on someone who is fired up. This is an accepted practice in breaking up NBA scuffles, however, so I'm not going to criticize Lewis for that. And if the rule is a player, KG in this case, can't swat an official's arm away, than I guess I have to live with that, too. But part of the officials' job is to keep a cool head when tempers flare, the same way, say, players aren't supposed to run into the stands when someone throws a beer at them. Lewis obviously didn't go after KG, but he reacted poorly. After KG pushed Lewis' arm away and Lewis responded by shoving KG's arm, Lewis then gestured with his thumb while talking with fellow official Bob Delaney -- at Garnett, perhaps, or perhaps suggesting that Garnett be shown the exit. It was as if Lewis was saying to Delaney: "You deal with him." That's not an acceptable mindset for an NBA official to have, and Lewis' actions were inappropriate.

As for Dallas, they're a pretty strong team. They're dealing with the loss of their starting small forward, Caron Butler, as well as a nagging ankle injury to Nowitzki that caused him to miss nine games earlier in the season. (It speaks to how talented Nowitzki is offensively that he scored 29 points against one of the league's best defenses while being far less than 100 percent healthy.) They've got DeShawn Stevenson in their starting lineup, which is okay as long as he doesn't finish games, and he nearly cost coach Rick Carlisle the win Friday night before Carlisle took him out. They also have a ton of scoring punch off the bench, with Shawn Marion, Barea, and Jason Terry, and they may get Rodrigue Beaubois back in time to contribute down the stretch. They're certainly deeper than the Lakers and Spurs, but I'm not sure they have the horses to beat those teams in a seven-game series. I wouldn't overlook them, though.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Boston 95, Sacramento 90

Ray Allen does a lot of things I wish I could do. After last night, you can add tearing into Boston's second unit to that list.

[recap] [box score]

The Celtics starters had played a sloppy but effective first quarter, turning the ball over too much but keeping the clamps on the Kings for a 27-20 lead at the end of the period. The second unit promptly squandered that lead, and Boston went into the locker room down down by nine. Among the biggest transgressions: Surrendering 13 points to backup forward Donte' Greene in the quarter; Nate Robinson blowing the simplest play in basketball by not giving the ball back to Marquis Daniels on a two-on-one break, charging into Pooh Jeter instead; and Glen Davis getting blocked by DeMarcus Cousins, retrieving the ball, then trying a fadeaway 10-footer in traffic that was blocked by Omar Casspi. I certainly would have had a few choice words for the guys myself after that type of performance.

Actually, I have no idea what, exactly, set Ray off, but something did, and it kept Boston from dropping an obvious "trap" game at the end of a road trip. Robinson struggled with his offense in the second half, but was huge on defense, diving for loose balls and accumulating five steals. He played well enough to earn the nod over Rajon Rondo in crunch time, Doc Rivers electing continuity rather than bringing Rondo back in the fourth quarter as the Celtics put the game away. And Davis responded with ten points in the period.

Lest Allen's rare appearance as a vocal leader outshine his play, I should point out that he backed up his words with another outstanding game. He's been dialed in all year, now shooting nearly 51 percent from the floor overall and nearly 46 percent from behind the arc. Watching him play, Allen looks more like he's got shooting down to a science than anyone I've ever seen, and it's most noticeable when he puts the ball on the floor and then takes a pullup in the lane. Allen hangs on the air on these shots, calibrating himself and seemingly calculating the exact arc and power his shot needs. He's been the most fun Celtic to watch this season, and given that two of his teammates are having perhaps career years and a third has resurrected a career that seemed headed downward due to a knee injury, that's saying something.

Rondo had a strong game, too, going into attack mode early and supplementing Allen's scoring in the first half. Kendrick Perkins was solid inside off the bench, and I imagine it won't be terribly long before Doc Rivers installs him as the starter. After the All-Star break, perhaps?