Saturday, October 31, 2009

TMJF: Cavs 104, Wolves 87

From the opening tip on Friday night, Jonny Flynn was a totally different player than we saw Wednesday.

Minnesota's rookie point guard, tentative for the first three quarters of his NBA debut against New Jersey, wasted no time in making his mark against Cleveland. On his team's first possession, Flynn took a dribble hand-off from Al Jefferson and, moving to his right, froze Shaquille O'Neal with a hesitation dribble before scooting to the basket for a layup. Flynn had seven of the Wolves' first nine points, adding a pair of free throws after being fouled by O'Neal on a drive and a stationary three-pointer from the top of the key. All told, Flynn led the Wolves with 17 points on 6-of-10 shooting, including a couple of tough running bank shots and a very tricky fadeaway.

Flynn did have five turnovers, but two came with the game well out of reach. My biggest complaint with Flynn so far offensively is that he's holding the ball too long before making his move to the basket; when he does decide to create his own shot, he takes so long that there isn't time for a Plan B.

Henry Abbott over at TrueHoop had this to say about Flynn after Wednesday: "But something to keep an eye on as he develops ... he did little to dispel the notion that he loves to pound the air out of the ball, finishing with just two assists." Abbott was otherwise complimentary towards Flynn, but one can imagine that he was similarly unimpressed with Flynn's three assists against the Cavs.

I defended Flynn in the comments of that TrueHoop post (I'm "TheHighPlainsDrifter") by saying that the offense, so far, doesn't seem to be affording Flynn a lot of opportunities for assists. Or anyone, for that matter; Abbott pointed out that Flynn's two assists tied for a team-high against New Jersey, and the same is true of the three he handed out against Cleveland. Flynn pushed the ball a bit more tonight, but the wings he's playing with -- Damien Wilkins and Corey Brewer -- are not good spot-up shooters, and Jefferson doesn't run the floor as well as his backup, Ryan Hollins. Cleveland's a fine defensive team, too, which certainly makes assists hard to come by.

Defensively, Flynn has much farther to go. Cleveland doesn't run the screen and roll with Mo Williams as often as New Jersey runs it with Devin Harris and so Flynn wasn't exposed on that play, but he lost Williams a number of times on screens and rotations. Given, however, that the entire team was struggling to defend -- they made the previously offensively-inept Cavs look like the Harlem Globetrotters at times -- it's hard to say if Flynn was ultimately at fault for those defensive errors.

The program guide for my digital cable system listed this game as "meeting of former Celtics teammates" -- referring to Cleveland's Delonte West (out due to personal issues) and Jefferson. Lebron James is, apparently, an afterthought. I found this amusing, so I checked a few others: Bulls-Celtics was promoted as a meeting of former Kansas Jayhawks (Kirk Hinrich and Paul Pierce), while Knicks-Bobcats was billed as a "battle of Chandlers" (Wilson and Tyson, no relation). I wonder how much Time Warner pays its NBA content writer. I could use a job.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Boston 118, Chicago 90

Has Boston improved since the playoffs, or has Chicago regressed?

[recap] [box score]

That's a totally unfair question, and just a cute way of asking whether the Celtics are as good as the score suggests, or the Bulls are as bad as the score suggests. And the answer, as it invariably is in these situations, is: A bit of both.

A 28-point shredding of a team that had just soundly beaten San Antonio sure looks good, but there are a few things about that that are deceiving. The Bulls' victory over the Spurs wasn't as impressive as it looked, as the Spurs played poorly, no doubt tired from their opening night victory over New Orleans the night before. And Chicago came to Boston for the second leg of their own home-and-away back-to-back, the victory over the Spurs coming Thursday night. And Derrick Rose is battling an ankle injury that kept him out of the final seven preseason games and has coach Vinny Del Negro trying to limit him to around 30 minutes per game to start the year.

At the same time, boy, did the Celtics look good. After a so-so first quarter in which the Celtics found themselves in a bit of foul trouble, the bench gave us space to start the second quarter, and the starting unit hammered the coffin shut by early in the third.

When the Celtics shoot well and defend well -- and they did both against the Bulls -- they may be the most entertaining team in the league to watch, at least at home. Their momentum builds with every steal or long rebound off a missed jumper, and the team is off to the races: The ball quickly finds its way into Rajon Rondo's hands, and the big men run the floor, clearing space for Ray Allen and Paul Pierce to spot up behind the three-point line. Rondo's decision-making itsn't always impeccable, but he makes the right choice far more often than not, and tonight, that choice was to pitch it to the wing for the three. When Paul or Ray tees one up in this situation, you just know it's going in, and the crowd does too, its hum getting louder until erupting as ball meets net.

Other elite teams don't have the same combination the Celtics do. The Lakers certainly have the offensive firepower, but they don't defend as well and lack a Rondo-like distributor to push the ball up the floor; the Spurs prefer to play at a much slower pace; the Cavaliers' Lebron James adds an explosive, acrobatic element that the Cs don't have, but he doesn't have the supporting cast. Orlando comes closest, but Jameer Nelson doesn't have the same speed and knack for setting his teammates up that Rondo does.

This isn't to say that Boston is better than all these clubs, although they certainly have been the most impressive team so far in this very, very young season. And you don't win any championship rings by being the most entertaining team. But stretches like the one the Celtics went on from 11:14 to 6:50 of the third quarter are what make a long regular season worth watching night in and night out. In the course of extending a 15-point halftime lead to 27, Boston scored on eight of nine possessions, with Rondo assisting on all but one of the baskets (a three-pointer by Pierce on which he took one dribble to let a defender go by after receiving a pass from Rondo). Soon thereafter, I got a Gmail chat message from a friend who's a Lakers fan: "Your team is good."

Yes, it is. Maybe not quite as good as they look right now, but good.

Quick bullets:
  • Rondo's statline: two points, eight boards, 16 assists. Nine of those dimes came in the third quarter. There's one other guy currently in the league who has influenced a game the degree that Rondo did tonight while only taking two shots, and he's third on the list of all-time assist leaders. (And his current team just smacked the Lakers at Staples).
  • I get on Doc Rivers for not managing minutes, so to be equitable, I should praise him for limiting the time on the floor for Rondo (30 minutes), Ray (23), Pierce (31), Garnett (25), and Perkins (19).
  • Ten points, ten boards, and two blocked shots in a second consecutive strong game from Shelden Williams. If he keeps this up, he just may command minutes even when Glen Davis returns from injury. Williams is more willing than Big Baby to do the kind of things power forwards are supposed to do.
  • KG hasn't shaken all the rust off, but after missing one earlier in the game, he finally connected with Rondo for an alley-oop in the the third quarter. A welcome sight for those worried that Garnett's lost all of his explosiveness. He may never be the same he was pre-injury, but with every game, he's looking more and more agile.
  • Lester Hudson made one of two free throws and hit a jumper late (which I missed, as I had flipped over to catch the end of Sacramento at New Orleans), but was stil too tentative on offense. I know he's trying to prove he can back up Rondo at point guard, but he's a scorer, and we aren't going to be able to evaluate him as one if he doesn't play like himself when he's on the court. On one typical sequence, Hudson rubbed his man off a high screen on the left wing and rather than take advantage of the open space by firing a jumper or going to the basket, he threw the ball to Marquis Daniels just a few feet away. This was a completely useless pass, as Daniels was just a few feet away and not particularly open, and he's not a dangerous outside shooter. There aren't many games for Hudson to show what he can do before he goes down to the D-League, and he needs to use these minutes more productively.
  • However, Hudson looked better and more comfortable than J.R. Giddens, who still hasn't shown me that he belongs on an NBA court.

NEXT GAME: vs. New Orleans on Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern. The game's on NBATV, which means it won't be available on any League Pass free preview.

Viewing Alert

Chicago comes to Boston tonight at 8 pm Eastern to renew last year's incredible first-round playoff series. You can see the game on ESPN.

These Bulls are different than the Bulls the Celtics saw in the playoffs, with the main difference that Ben Gordon has gone to Detroit and Luol Deng has returned from injury. While Chicago will miss Gordon's scoring, I think it's addition by subtraction for Chicago: His presence was stunting the growth of Derrick Rose, the second-year man out of Memphis who might just be the best point guard in the league in a few years.

Rose vs. Rondo was the marquee matchup in the playoffs, and it's the key matchup tonight. Rose is by his nature a pass-first point guard, but he's too good to be passive offensively, and now that Gordon's gone, the Bulls need him to assert himself on that end. Rondo will have his hands full, though it will help that Kevin Garnett is around; KG is one more man Rondo can funnel Rose to. Rose wasn't able to stop Rondo in the spring, so Rondo should be aggressive offensively to make Rose work and possibly get him into foul trouble.

Other things to watch:
  • Garnett and the Celtics need to decide whether they want to let Tyrus Thomas shoot 15-footers, something he's more than willing to do. The team is best defensively when Garnett slumps off the opposing team's four, but Thomas showed in the playoffs last year and last night against San Antonio in Chicago's season opener that he can make that shot.
  • Both Thomas and Joakim Noah like to go for spectacular blocked shots, so Celtics' weak-side players should be ready to crash the offensive glass.
  • Back-to-backs don't get much tougher than vs. San Antonio and at Boston. Chicago's win last night looks impressive, but after watching and thinking about the game, I thought the Spurs looked flat (perhaps feeling the effects of their own back to back). The Bulls should be a good test, but also shouldn't be a match for us.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

TMJF: Ricky Who?

Okay, so there probably aren't many Timberwolves fans who are asking that today. But after Jonny Flynn scored 11 of his 18 points in the final seven minutes to help Minnesota back from a 16-point deficit in a 95-93 win, they surely feel a bit better about Ricky Rubio spending the next couple of years in Spain.

Flynn was fairly pedestrian through the first three quarters on both ends of the floor. Offensively, he occasionally displayed his lightning-quick first step, but most of the time he was content to dribble up the floor and throw the ball to the wing to start the offense. Defensively, he was having trouble with Devin Harris, getting lost on the screen and roll.

The final minutes were a different story, however, as the Wolves turned more frantic, which fits Flynn's style better. He started taking the ball to the cup and getting to the line. He also played Harris, a tough cover because of his height and the fact that he's got a few inches on Flynn, much better, forcing him into two tough shots late (though Harris made the last one to tie the game at 93).

Most importantly, his NBA debut showed his heart, his competitiveness, and his leadership. How many rookie point guards in the history of the NBA have taken the potential game-winning shot in their first pro game? How many would be trusted with the responsibility?

Some other quick notes:

  • The only jumpers I remember seeing Flynn take (including one on the last possession) came on dribble-handoff type plays, where he then took another dribble before shooting. I don't recall seeing him do this at Syracuse, and it didn't look good tonight. I think he can hit the deep ball if his feet are set. He should save his jumpers for those situations, and take the ball to the hole otherwise.
  • Damien Wilkins made the game-winner rebounding Flynn's miss and his stat line isn't horrific, but he was pretty terrible. So was Corey Brewer, who was every bit the offensive nightmare I thought he'd be when he came into the league. There aren't too many NBA teams where these guys crack the rotation, much less start. Rookie Wayne Ellington should start at one of the wing spots sooner rather than later.
  • I don't know much about the triangle offense that coach Kurt Rambis has installed in Minnesota, but I do know the guy on the wing is important. When that guy is Wilkins or Brewer, the systems seems a lot less dangerous. With Kevin Love out, Flynn and Ramon Sessions are the team's most dangerous offensive threats other than Al Jefferson. Those two seemed reduced to the role of throwing the ball to the wing throughout most of the game. That just doesn't seem like a good way to maximize your personnel.

Boston 92, Charlotte 59

Looks like the Bobcats might need some work.

[recap] [box score]

Some statistical indicators of how bad Charlotte was: Gerald Wallace led them in scoring with ten points; they had ten- and thirteen-point quarters; Rajon Rondo out-assisted the entire team 11-10 despite playing just 30 minutes (and being just one guy); Wallace, their best player, was a -33.

Something about the look on the face of Charlotte coach Larry Brown -- known as much for bouncing around as for his excellent basketball mind -- made me think he wasn't going to be the coach there by the end of the season unless things changed. He looked utterly fed up with second-year backup point guard D.J. Augustin, and disgusted by the play and attitude of new center Tyson Chandler.

More bullet points (this should be brief):

  • Doc was pretty good about managing most of the starters' minutes, with one glaring exception: Ray Allen played 38 minutes despite the game being out of hand midway through the third quarter. Don't forget, Ray played 42 minutes last night against Cleveland. Paul Pierce and Marquis Daniels were in a bit of foul trouble and Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine were out with injuries, so perhaps Doc felt he had little choice. Or perhaps Doc was using a game well in hand to experiment with different lineups. Still, I don't like the idea of running our 34-year-old shooting guard into the ground this early in the season.
  • After two games of Shelden Williams, I'm comfortable in saying that he's going to be far more effective than Mikki Moore was. Twelve points and nine boards in an extended role tonight, though most of his scoring came from the free throw line, where he was eight-for-eleven. He has pretty awful hands, but he works hard and showed a decent amount of court awareness.
  • Really nice game on both ends from Kendrick Perkins, though I wish he hadn't gotten caught up in jawing with Chandler, which resulted in a technical foul. He and Garnett defended the rim as though they were personally insulted that a Bobcat would dare try to score. That kind of defensive swagger is what helped us win a championship two years ago, and is what will help us win again this year.
  • Mike and Tommy were on the guys for shooting too many three-pointers, but they made a bunch of them and they were almost all good looks. We have enough good deep shooters that if the shot is there, they should take it.
  • J.R. Giddens was unspectacular in eight minutes, grabbing three rebounds and one steal. His most memorable sequence was airmailing a three-pointer from the corner, then over-aggressively trying to block a jumper on the other end and committing a foul.
  • Lester Hudson played about nine and a half minutes and did nothing spectacular. Hudson is a scorer auditioning for minutes at point guard, and so he naturally isn't going to impress; he's trying to show that he can handle the ball, initiate the offense, and get others involved, while his strengh is putting the ball in the hole. You can tell he knows what he's doing on the court, but I'm not sure we're going to see the real Lester Hudson this year.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Boston 95, Cleveland 89

A rocky start. An excellent first half. A great beginning to the third quarter. A bit of a lull. A bit more of a lull. And then just enough plays to take it home.

[recap] [box score]

The first half was surprisingly smooth given that it was the inaugural 24 minutes. After the break, however, the game took a noticeable turn for the worse, a combination of offensive stagnation, sloppy play and carelessness with the ball, and good defense. But the Celtics got it done down the stretch, stemming the tide just when they needed to, as they've done so often the past couple of seasons.

A game this choppy doesn't deserve one of my elegant, flowing narratives (cough). How 'bout some bullet points?

  • I'm happy overall with what I saw out of Kevin Garnett. He played 33 minutes overall (a few more than I and the coaching staff would have liked) and didn't seem like he was limping or anything like that. I noticed in the first half that he wasn't as quick to loose balls and rebounds as I'm used to seeing. The only bad sign we saw in the second half was a missed dunk on a break, however. I think it's probably him just getting his legs back.
  • I wasn't quite as happy with what I saw from Rasheed Wallace, even though he hit three of six three-pointers and finished with 12 points. His play was fine; he just didn't look very good. TNT announcer Doug Collins said that 'sheed was out of shape, maybe 10 pounds above ideal weight. I didn't necessarily notice that, but I did notice that Wallace got almost no lift on his jumpers and on his way up for rebounds. I haven't seen much of him the last few years, so I can only hope that this is just him working into game shape and we won't see him play so ... geriatrically for long.
  • Doc Rivers' substitution patterns were markedly different tonight than we're used to seeing. Wallace checked in for Kendrick Perkins with about five minutes remaining in the first quarter, with Marquis Daniels spelling Ray Allen a minute later. Garnett sat for Shelden Williams with 2:31 to go in the period, and Eddie House came in for Rajon Rondo with just over a minute left. It was pretty common for the starting five, save Garnett or Perkins, to play the whole first quarter last year, with one of Pierce or Allen starting the second stanza as well to provide offense for the second team. There had been a lot of talk in the offseason about having a true second unit, but in this game Doc seemed more focused on gradually transitioning to the second string from the first and back again (Allen started the second for Paul Pierce and played the entire quarter, while the rest of the starters came back at the six- and four-and-a-half-minute marks). Whether this was Doc experimenting or dealing with a depleted bench -- remember, Glen Davis, Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen, and Bill Walker missed this one with injuries -- or a new philosophy remains to be seen.
  • Doc used a similar substitution pattern in the second half, but he had the starters back in earlier, with 8:03 remaining. However, our offense was stagnant and Doc replaced Perkins with Wallace with 4:16 to go to spread the floor and force the Cavs to guard every position. Who gets the frontcourt minutes in crunch time alongside KG will be something to watch all season.
  • Marquis Daniels is a career 23.7 percent three-point shooter. I mention this for the benefit of RwH readers who are largely unfamiliar with Daniels and who may have heard the TNT announcing team of Kevin Harlan and Doug Collins imply that Daniels was dangerous from behind the arc. Daniels hit a triple early in the fourth quarter, and Collins mentioned that the lineup on the floor at the time -- with Allen, House, Wallace, and Daniels -- was a good three-point shooting lineup (which it is, but not because of Daniels). Seconds later, Harlan mentioned how Daniels is the kind of player Doc likes, because he can defend and make the three-pointer. C'mon, fellas. Do your homework.
  • Daniels, by the way, played very well on both ends of the court. Nothing spectacular, but very solid.
  • Even with Shaquille O'Neal around, Cleveland is a one-man band offensively. There's so much standing around in that offense, it's ridiculous. Rarely do they have more than one thing going on at a time.

I don't want to say this was a statement game, because we didn't play well enough for it to be a statement. But it's our first win in Cleveland since 2004, and a road win is a big leg up in the head-to-head should we need it for playoff tiebreakers.

***

NEXT GAME: Boston's back in action Wednesday night at home against Charlotte in the opener for the Bobcats. A potential letdown game if played at a different point in the season, but there's no such thing as a letdown game in your home opener. Especially when it's KG's return to the parquet.

VIEWING ALERT: The game against Charlotte isn't on national TV, but NBA League Pass is running its free preview through November 3rd. If your cable company doesn't offer League Pass, try League Pass Broadband's free preview. The game's at 7:30 Eastern.

TMJF: Minnesota hosts New Jersey in the opener for both teams tomorrow night, but Jonny Flynn might not play. He's missed two practices in a row with an illness. If he does go, he'll have his hands full with Nets point guard Devin Harris, one of the league's bright young stars at the position. Harris is super-quick and has a few inches on Flynn. If it materializes, it's a tough assignment for an NBA debut.

While I'm talking about Flynn, though, I do want to make a few additional comments to the ones I made the other week. While I expect great things from him long-term and think he'll have a strong rookie season, I do expect him to experience some ups and downs. Any point guard who is immediately handed the keys to an NBA team will have encounter some bumps in the road, particularly if he's as reliant on Damien Wilkins and Corey Brewer as Flynn has to be. Flynn will have his share of high-turnover games and nights where his shot isn't falling. His size will leave him vulnerable against certain point guards. His work ethic, competitive nature, and ability to get to the free throw line should be insurance against any truly disastrous games, but I didn't want my glowing comments from before to be read that I think Flynn's just going to hit the ground running and never look back.

What I'm Keeping An Eye On Tonight Against the Cavs

1. Kevin Garnett's gait. Obviously.

2. Doc Rivers' big-man rotation. This was a curiosity at the start of the training camp, but it has become a question mark due to Glen Davis' injury (the latest reports say that Davis is confirming that he'll be on the shelf for six to eight weeks). I talked to a friend this morning and he calmed me down a little bit, pointing out that we have three very good post players who should play the great majority of the minutes available at the power forward and center positions.

An even distribution of those minutes would be 32 per man, a little on the high side for Garnett given his mileage and the fact that he's coming off the knee injury, but something that Kendrick Perkins and Rasheed Wallace should be able to handle. Of course, to achieve such an even distribution and to keep two of them on the court at the same time while giving everyone ample rest, Doc would have to do something like play them in six-minute shifts. Doc's preference the last couple years has been to remove Perkins or Garnett with around two minutes left in the first quarter, then sit the other at the start of the second. I'm sure that a similar plan was in place before Davis' injury. It'll be interesting to see how Doc adjusts, and whether Shelden Williams plays a major part or just fills in.

3. How the Celtics Defend Shaq. The Diesel doesn't really scare me (Perkins can definitely handle him), but a common tactic against O'Neal throughout his career has been to send him to the free throw line rather than give him the thunderous jams he gets by virtue of his size. As thin as the Celtics are up front with Davis and Scalabrine out, however, Perkins can't afford to spend those fouls. It will be interesting to see whether we concede some of those easy buckets to O'Neal, and whether Cleveland relies on him a bit more heavily because of it.

Big Baby hurts hand, out for...

... "a while". Or 6-8 weeks. Or possibly the whole goddamn season.

The Celtics aren't confirming anything yet, but allegedly, Glen Davis got hurt in a fight with an ex-teammate from LSU. Big Baby claims it was self-defense. Whatever. Too many details are unavailable right now to get into questions about Baby's character or life decisions.

The injury brings with it a fair amount of uncertainty, too much uncertainty on the eve of the regular season. A ton of important issues are implicated.

1. The lineup. Davis was the fourth man in a five-man big rotation. Shelden Williams will step into a role that is much larger than the one contemplated for him when he was signed in the offseason. But while the player they called "The Landlord" at Duke for his control of the paint may be better defensively than Davis, he's not the offensive threat Big Baby is. If he gets all of Baby's minutes, we're in trouble. At the same, it'd be nice if we could avoid playing Kevin Garnett more minutes than planned as he returns from knee surgery. That would mean even larger roles for Kendrick Perkins and Rasheed Wallace, which they can handle, although foul trouble is always a concern for Perk. To the extent that Doc Rivers was planning on going big up front at times with Perk/KG/'sheed, that'll likely have to wait.

Brian Scalabrine, when healthy, will get some minutes at the four. It's at least possible that Doc will go small with Marquis Daniels or J.R. Giddens at the four, but I can't really see that working.

2. The roster. The Celtics' roster already contains the maximum 15 players, so in order to add a player, it'd have to be through a trade. Scalabrine and Tony Allen, as expiring contracts who make minimal contributions on the floor, are the most attractive options to move; one could make the case that they are still on the Celtics roster almost solely as trade pieces to acquire depth later on in the year. One or both (or Giddens) could theoretically be moved for big man help now.

There are a couple of problems with this, however. One, any team that took on Scal and/or Tony in exchange for a useful player would be doing so at the expense of their product this year, something teams are reluctant to do this early in the season for fear of alienating their fan base. Second, the Celtics front office might want to hang onto these assets for later in the season, when more players may be available and the team's needs for the stretch run are more apparent.

3. Home court advantage. On the other hand, the team may want to move quickly to preserve any shot it has of being the top seed in the East.

I was going to write a separate post on this, but it's appropriate here. The Orlando Magic, with their depth, are best-positioned to end the regular season with the best record in the conference. That doesn't necessarily make them the favorite to return to the Finals; playoff series are typically decided by the five players on the floor at the beginning and end of games, and Boston's better 1 through 6. But Orlando's depth makes them the team best equipped to handle the off nights and nagging injuries that are inevitable in an 82-game season.

However, the Magic will be without their starting small forward, Rashard Lewis, for the first ten games of this season thanks to a suspension. Orlando's schedule isn't exactly a gauntlet during that stretch, but if they do slip up some, it'd be nice to be able to take advantage of it. Losing early games might put Boston in a hole that is too deep to get out of.

* * *

I keep telling myself not to panic or get too worked up about this. We played a big chunk of last year without Kevin Garnett, and played well. Surely we can deal with the loss -- however long it may be -- of Davis.

At the same time, it's not the way we wanted to start the season, and we're now another frontcourt injury short from really being in trouble. As long as Davis is out, even just one missed game from Perkins or KG or Wallace -- possible, likely even, given their injury histories -- could be close to an automatic L.

Moreover, it's just unsettling to start the season this way.

* * *
VIEWING ALERT: First game of the new season. Celtics at Cavaliers, 7:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Fearless Season Win Total Prediction

Ball Don't Lie says 56-26. Rasheed Wallace says a record-setting 73 wins is in reach. And Rhymes With Hondo says somewhere in between.

BDL's prediction is about as low as I've seen, but I've also read a lot of stuff that says that 60 wins is a stretch. And while I give Rasheed's comments as much weight as such blustering deserves, I do find it a bit peculiar that people are so reluctant to believe that Boston can at least match last year's win total of 62.

There are a few arguments I've seen and heard for why the Celtics will be hard-pressed to match last year's mark. I think most of them are garbage of varying degrees. Let's tackle them one at a time.

1. KG's health. Look, no Celtics fan isn't apprehensive about the stability of Garnett's surgically repaired knee. I'm a big Celtics fan, so I'm very worried about it. But in terms of regular-season record, can we really predict that KG is going to miss more than a quarter of the season due to the knee? Because that's what happened last year; he hurt the knee on February 19 against Utah and missed 22 of the team's last 26 games (and then all of the playoffs). I'm not saying I think Garnett's going to play the full 82; just that if predicting regular season records is to be a meaningful exercise (which it probably isn't), you can't expect KG to miss more time than he did last year.

Moreover, we're better equipped to handle any Garnett injury this year. Wallace can fill in for him and Boston won't miss a beat defensively, where KG's absence was felt most. 'Sheed is also more than capable of filling in offensively.

In addition, the injury forced other Celtics to step up their games, something that was very clear in the performances of Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins in the playoffs. Rondo was electrifying in the seven-game series against the Bulls, and while it took Perk a while to get comfortable without his frontcourt mate, he eventually responded to the opportunity in a big way -- he was arguably our best player in the playoffs.

Whether Garnett misses games or it's just that he's not his old self, the team's in better shape to pick up the slack than it was last year. We've added new personnel; the old personnel is more ready to step up; the team now has gotten used to playing without KG; and the guys are mentally prepared to be without him on the court. Should Garnett miss the kind of time he missed last year, it seems perfectly reasonable to expect Boston to at least match their regular season record of 16-6 without him after the knee injury. That stretch included wins vs. Cleveland and at Denver.

2. The Celtics won't match their scorching start from 2008-2009. Given that the 27-2 start to last season was an NBA record and the 19-game winning streak that got them there was a franchise mark, I'll concede that it's not likely Boston will match it this year. (Although I heard someone on TNT the other day say that with 17 of their first 21 games at home, the defending champion Lakers could go undefeated for the season's first month and a half). What this argument overlooks is that the Celtics then promptly dropped seven of their next nine, an uncommonly cold streak for a team of that caliber. As rare and unexpected as Boston's torrid start was, the immediate aftermath was also a surprise.

It's all about frame of reference. If you say the Celtics started 27-2, then yeah, that seems unattainable. If you say the Celtics started 29-9, it's not nearly as daunting.

3. The rest of the league got better. I don't buy this argument for two reasons. First, we got better, too. Not only that, our better is better than the other guys' better. Only a handful of teams can boast additions as good or better than Wallace and Marquis Daniels. And hey, we were better than most of them to begin with.

Second, there are always teams that are supposed to be better than there actually are (many more of these than surprisingly good teams). Two years ago, Chicago was supposed to be better than they were; last year, Toronto was a big disappointment. So you can tell me that the Raptors and the Wizards are going to be better than they were, but I'll believe it when I see it. And again, we improved, too, and we were better than them to begin with.

* * *

I'm not predicting the world here. We'll lose our usual share of games to teams that have no business beating us, the inevitable letdowns that come over the course of an 82-game season. And we'll certainly have our work cut out for us against the other elite teams in the league. But last year we lost to Indiana, New York, Milwaukee, and Charlotte, split four games with Cleveland and two with San Antonio, dropped a home date with Orlando, and got swept in the home-and-home with the Lakers. All that, and we still went 62-20. Again, I'm having a hard time understanding why 62 wins, give or take one or two, isn't the floor.

Anything between 60 and (sorry 'sheed) 66 seems likely. I'll go last year two better and say 64-18.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Celtics Wrap Up Preseason

Two games to update you on. The first is a 108-103 loss to the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday.

The second was a 96-82 triumph in a preview of the season opener last night, against the Cavs in Cleveland. Check the box score: KG and Ray sat this one out and Pierce only played 13 minutes, while LeBron played 28. This one had the edge of a regular season game, with Pierce reportedly asking in despite Doc's plan to sit him, and some pushing and shoving between Shelden Williams and Mo Williams (no relation, presumably) late in the first half.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

RwH on BDL

So, as many of you know, I'm involved in a kickass fantasy basketball league and I lived in Las Vegas this summer.

What do these two things have to do with each other?

This. (Scroll down about halfway, 'til you get to the picture of a bunch of people in Oden-head t-shirts. I'm in the back row, second from the left, between the tall guy and the guy who looks like the PC dude. For an explanation of the LOLcat-ism "Needs Moar Wolves," go here or here.)

Some explanation is probably necessary at this point. With one exception that is probably pretty obvious, the people in that picture are in my fantasy basketball league. The picture was taken at NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, which for the past two years has been something of a get-together for some of us. At this point, I'll allow my friend in the hat to take over:

I saw the shirt for $4.99 in the Adidas outlet store about a month prior to Summer League. I bought one, thinking the hilarious Oden head with big cheesy grin was the perfect shirt to wear to Summer League. The shirt was a hit, so [the woman pictured] decided to go scoop up a bunch more. She went to the outlet, bought like 8 more of them and we handed them out to the crew. So I picked out the shirt, but she executed the rest.

We were pretty loud and the NBA photographer asked to take our pic. It never got posted on NBA.com so I feared it was lost forever. Thankfully, it lives!

"We were pretty loud" is something of an overstatement: we're the "mock cheering section" referenced in the last paragraph of this recap of a day of Summer League games.

Anyway, not sure how the Ball Don't Lie guys got the picture, unless it made it on NBA.com and we never found it.

While I'm posting silly Summer League-related things, I actually was very reluctant to wear the Oden-head shirt, because I was already wearing a sweet shirt of my own: A Jonny Flynn Black Mass Reverends draft day t-shirt. The Revs are the name of my fantasy team, and I had just taken Flynn with the fifth pick overall in my rookie draft. I commissioned a good friend to make me a logo, and she did an awesome job. I had the shirt made, and later in the week our Commissioner got a photo with Flynn and the shirt.

Man, this season really needs to start.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Preseason Game #6: Boston 101, Toronto 82

[recap] [box score]

This recap from Celtics Hub was the only interesting item related to the game that showed up in my Google reader this afternoon. Looks like Kevin Garnett had his best game of the preseason and Ray Allen had a strong day as well.

Can't wait for the season to start.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Preseason Game #5: Boston 106, Toronto 90

[recap] [box score]

Highlights courtesy of Celtics Life.

CelticsBlog recap.

Overly-excited analysis from Celtics Hub.

My thoughts on what I've read today:

-Kevin Garnett had a couple of dunks on lob passes, which has everyone excited. I feel a little funny celebrating every time KG does something and doesn't get hurt -- that kind of attitude doesn't exactly instill confidence -- but Garnett does keep looking better and better in the highlights I see. That can't be anything other than a good sign.

-I'm going to take the liberty of chalking up Marquis Daniels' lackluster performance (zero points on 0-for-6 shooting in 16 minutes) to being the aftereffect of whatever stomach bug caused him to miss the second half against New Jersey on Tuesday.

-Rasheed Wallace didn't play, but I haven't heard that it's because the ankle injury he suffered Tuesday was serious. It's likely Doc was planning on resting 'sheed against Toronto anyway, though I'm sure the tweaked ankle made that decision.

-It's nice to see Lester Hudson contribute a strong game (12 points in 13:30 of court time), but I don't see him as anything more than a fixture of the Maine Red Claws' starting lineup in the D-League this season. And, frankly, I'm not sure I want to. Hudson is a scoring guard on offense who has to defend point guards because of his size -- the same player description that applies to Eddie House (though their methods of scoring are different). I suppose if Hudson beats out House fair and square that's one thing, but that seems a remote possibility right now. If Hudson gets decent minutes with the big club during the regular season, one of three unpleasant possibilities is overwhelmingly likely: Doc is sitting House too much; the Marquis Daniels at point guard experiment isn't working; or someone's hurt.

I'm looking forward to what Hudson brings to the table, but unless he's ready to come in and contribute at House's level, I'd rather not see him. We've got a championship to win.

Ex-Celtic Puts the "Slam" in Poetry Slam

I'm not a Twitterer (erererererer), at least not yet. But I am an avid follower of NBA blogs, and the folks over at The Baseline have a daily collection of the best tweets from NBA-related accounts.

Yesterday, this one popped up:

"Rainy day for a leaf must feel like thanksgiving-eyes 2 big for your stomach/food stuffed in your face/to much to absorb/weighted down/sleep. ... Just saw a rain drop use a leaf as a diving board/or was the a leaf breaking it's fall...whatever the result it was a moment of connection."

The perpetrat--, er, author of this verse? Rick Fox, my least favorite Celtic of my lifetime (though another full season of Tony Allen may well change that).

I was going to compare these lines to some of those of noted bad poet and Orlando Magic victory cigar J.J. Redick, but my literary criticism skills are rusty, and the only reason I even took notice here was to make fun of Fox -- a pursuit I am sure many of my fellow Celtics fans can appreciate and perhaps join in.

Mock away.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Preseason Game #4: Boston 91, New Jersey 88

[recap] [box score]

(I haven't had a chance to check all the Celtics blogs for reactions to the game, but we play Toronto tonight and in the interest of keeping up to date, I'm posting my thoughts, anyway. Celtics Life has some highlights.

Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen all sat this one out, and Boston still pulled out a victory. Credit some of that to the fact that the Nets' Devin Harris and Yi Jianlian missed the second half with injuries, after grabbing a 60-47 halftime lead. But give a lot of credit, also, to the Celtics, in particular Rajon Rondo and Rasheed Wallace.

Rondo fell one rebound shy of a triple double, notching 18 points and 13 assists in the process. Personally, I'm not overly interested in his preseason performance -- as I'm generally not interested in any established player before the games start to count, unless, like KG, they are coming back from injury -- but at the very least, this will keep Celtics bloggers from writing posts wondering where Rondo's aggressiveness has gone.

With the Big Three on the pine, Wallace got a start and showed just how valuable he's going to be this year, either as the leader of the second team or as another weapon playing alongside much of the first unit. Twenty points and nine boards for 'sheed, including a very healthy three-of-seven from deep. Marquis Daniels, as a slasher, is going to love playing with Wallace and Eddie House (14 points, two-of-four from three-point range on Tuesday).


Wallace did leave the game in the second half with an ankle injury that doesn't appear to be serious. And Daniels sat out after halftime after a relatively ineffective first half. Reports are that he was battling some sort of bug.


The only other notable thing in the box score is J.R. Giddens' line of seven points and 13 rebounds. While this is undoubtedly Giddens' greatest moment as a Celtic, there's reason to temper one's excitement. For starters, he played 33 minutes last night. In the NBA, minutes tends to equal production, and that's particularly true for a guy whose job is on the line and who should therefore be busting his ass out there grabbing rebounds. Second, I still think Bill Walker is the better player and would be the one given the chance to crack the rotation had he not torn cartilage in his knee earlier in cap. We probably won't ever know, but I believe that Walker was going to be given the chance to take minutes from Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine as the tenth guy in the rotation, whereas I don't think the team is seriously considering Giddens for that role. While I think last night means that Giddens isn't in danger of losing his roster spot to Michael Sweetney, I'm not at all sure he fits into the club's long-term plans. I can't find it now, but a few weeks ago, there was a post on CelticsBlog that suggested that the team might not even pick up Giddens' option for next year, making him a free agent after the season -- and more important, an expiring contract to use in a trade.


What's ironic, actually, is that the guy who should be the answer to the question "Who is our second wing guy off the bench?" was wearing the home whites Tuesday night. Chris Douglas-Roberts is in the middle of a terrific preseason and is locked in a very tight battle with Courtney Lee for New Jersey's starting two guard spot (though with Jarvis Hayes being the only obstacle at the three, it's conceivable that Nets coach Lawrence Frank could go small and start them both alongside Devin Harris in a three-guard offense). CDR seems to have the slight edge over Lee and did nothing to change that last night with 19 points on six-for-eight shooting, though Lee also started and led the team in scoring with an efficient 21 points.


Boston could have Douglas-Roberts in the 2008 Draft, but instead chose Giddens with the last pick of the first round. The pick made little sense at the time: they play the same position, but CDR is two inches taller; Giddens was a McDonald's high school All-American, but CDR was first-team All-America in college; Giddens was essentially kicked off the team at Kansas and suspended at New Mexico, while CDR -- despite the fact that he played for John Calipari at Memphis -- does not, to my knowledge, have any character issues. We were lucky that Douglas-Roberts fell so far that we could have taken him 30th (he was eventually selected 40th by the Nets) and yet we decided to give guaranteed money to a guy who was smaller, less proven, and something of a knucklehead.


That's not entirely fair, of course, as they are different players (Giddens reportedly has more of a jumper and is a better defender) and a lot of people were wrong about Douglas-Roberts (who isn't the smoothest player around). But I, for one, have always regretted that we didn't take CDR, and I think this is the year that everyone else will, too.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Preseason Game #3: Boston 100, New Jersey 93

[recap] [box score]

By all accounts -- accounts to which I will link below -- this was the most encouraging outing of the preseason for Kevin Garnett as he returns from knee surgery. Marquis Daniels also reportedly had a strong performance, and you can see from the box score as well as I can that Paul Pierce and Eddie House were in mid-season form.

Other than KG's return and the integration of Rashed Wallace and Daniels into the rotation, the only somewhat interesting ongoing story to arise in this preseason is whether Mike Sweetney will beat out J.R. Giddens (or anyone else, but Giddens is probably on the thinnest ice) for the 15th and final roster spot. Given that both of them played exactly one minute, forty-three seconds against the Nets, I've decided that it's not terribly important.

Here are some links:

CelticsBlog game notes
CelticsBlog: Second unit played well
Celtics Circuit bullets
Rajon Rondo: Come Fly With Me
Other highlights

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Preseason Game #2: Boston 96, New York 82

[recap] [box score]

RwH is again relying on the eyes of others on this one, as it's pretty difficult to watch preseason Celtics games in Los Angeles.

Pretty much a unilaterally positive reaction to this one. This surprisingly-entertaining running diary over at Celtics Town mentions Kevin Garnett limping a bit early in the game, but doesn't make further mention of it as the night wore on. CelticsBlog makes no mention of KG hobbling around, but does recap perhaps the first "scare" of Garnett's return from knee surgery:
There was a point late in the second quarter when Garnett got tangled up with Knicks forward Jared Jeffries, but Garnett shook it off, hit his free throws, and continued to play on. "Kevin got stuck in a terrible spot, and I think that actually really helped Kevin. You can have strong knees and be in that spot and get injured. All the guy's weight was on Kevin and Kevin is in a bad spot, it just felt like all of a sudden Kevin was like 'Wow, I'm really healthy.'"
I'm not entirely sure who that quote is from, but I assume it's Doc.

Celtics Hub and Celtics Circuit have good bullet point recaps of the game as well.

One thing that sticks out at me from the box score is that Rasheed Wallace took nine threes. It's not that he hit just three of them -- that's not a bad percentage, and 4-for-9 is a very strong day from behind the arc -- but nine just seems like a lot. Everything I've read today is effusive in its praise of Wallace, however, so I'll defer to the opinions of those who watched the game. But it's something to keep an eye on. Wallace is undoubtedly the second unit's biggest offensive threat and I know he likes to play outside, but I'm hoping he'll post up a bit more than he's accustomed to. Otherwise, the second unit -- with the similarly pivot-averse Glen Davis, plus Eddie House and possibly Brian Scalabrine -- may become too reliant on the triple.

My buddy Joel, who lives in North Jersey and watched the game, said the team actually did go to Wallace in the post a few times, so that's a good sign. It may be that I'm just looking for something to write, and this is nothing to worry about.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Preseason Opener: Houston 96, Boston 90

[recap] [box score]

This game was actually played on Tuesday night, but there seems little point to me trying to glean something from a meaningless game from just a box score, when there are others out there who watched said meaningless game with their own eyes. Hence, I've waited a little while to collect impressions from fellow Celtics bloggers who live in the Boston area and could catch the game on TV:

-KG contributed six points and five rebounds in 13 minutes, and said the knee felt good.

-Highlights of KG looking like he's well on the way to a full recovery.

-Brief thoughts on the game from CelticsBlog and Celtics Hub.

The next preseason game is Friday against the Knicks. Other than Garnett's recovery, there really isn't much of interest going on in Celtics camp, particularly now that Bill Walker - the one guy with a chance to crack the rotation - is out with a torn meniscus. It's encouraging to know that Marquis Daniels and Rasheed Wallace look good, but we knew those guys would get burn. Frankly, the team is pretty much set. Lester Hudson could channel Chris Paul for the entire preseason and it probably wouldn't keep him from spending most of the season in Maine with the Red Claws. And Mike Sweetney could lead the team in scoring -- as he did against the Rockets -- in every preseason game and still get cut.

So I don't expect to do too much analysis in the preseason, since I can't watch the games, unless something major happens. I will post, after every preseason game, a roundup of reactions from the game, and comment on anything that strikes me.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

The Biggest Disappointment Since We Lost To Orlando

I imagine that several of you are wondering why I haven't posted anything about the Celtics practice that I saw on Saturday, thanks to the NBA's Real Training Camp feature.

I didn't write anything because, well ... oh, forget it. I can't say it better than Zach Lowe at CelticsHub did. The NBA completely missed its audience on this one. It served more as a watered-down 2008-09 recap and 2009-10 season preview -- something that die-hard Celtics fans who spent part of a Saturday night watching practice didn't need -- than an actual look at practice.

About the only interesting thing I saw was when the guys were running through offensive sets five on zero, and Doc Rivers chided rookie guard Lester Hudson for going through the motions a bit. Hudson cut to the basket without keeping his eye on the ball, and Doc asked him if he would've seen a pass coming. They ran it again and Hudson got it right. It was interesting to see coaches in the NBA get on the world's best players for the same things high school coaches ride their charges for.

Oh, and Rasheed Wallace apparently practices in ankle-length, baggy gray sweatpants, with the pockets turned out.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Viewing Alert: Celtics Practice On The Web, NBATV

http://www.nba.com/realtrainingcamp/

Go to the above link at 7 p.m. Eastern this Saturday, and you'll be able to watch Celtics practice live as part of nba.com's Real Training Camp coverage. It will also be broadcast on NBATV at midnight Eastern, and should be archived online for later viewing.

I haven't seen either of the two broadcasts that have already been completed -- the Nuggest and the Lakers -- but I plan on tuning in, probably on NBATV. I'll likely have a thought or two to post afterwards.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Knee Injury Grounds Billy Sky

Second-year forward Bill Walker will reportedly miss six to eight weeks after tearing the meniscus in his right knee.

This isn't a terribly serious knee injury, so the fact that Walker has a history of knee problems shouldn't be too concerning. However, it does seriously hamper Walker's chances of cracking the rotation this year. Whether that was ever in Doc's plans is anybody's guess, but many fans -- myself included -- would like to see that happen. So while this is by no means a devastating loss, it is disappointing.

After rumors that he might miss the preseason, Tony Allen has been practicing some, and if he stays healthy, he stands to get minutes on the wing that don't go to Marquis Daniels and (perhaps) Brian Scalabrine. But just how many minutes that might be is very much an open question.