Thoughts in Between the Lakers and the Heat

First of all, congratulations to Ray Allen on becoming the all-time three-point king. Prior to his arrival in Boston, my exposure to Ray was more or less limited to his days at UConn. It wasn't until he came over from Seattle in 2007-08 that I truly appreciated what a beautiful shooter he is. Despite that, I'd be lying if I said I didn't get a little emotional watching the Boston crowd salute him during the break after the first quarter. He helped us win at least one championship. He's one of us now.

Anyway, moving on, the Celtics lost to the Lakers on Thursday. Give credit to LA for playing a smart game, especially Kobe Bryant. In essence, they played the way I and so many others have repeatedly said they need to play in order to beat the Celtics: focus on their advantage in the post. What was especially impressive was how patient the Lakers were, not panicking as Boston built a 15-point lead. Bryant didn't try to do too much; he had faith in his teammates as they closed to within striking distance at halftime. Kobe came alive in the third quarter as the Lakers took the lead (and retook it after Boston briefly surged back ahead). But LA was able to extend the lead in the fourth quarter even with Kobe on the bench.

More than anything, I see Thursday's loss as making Danny Ainge think even harder about going out and getting another small forward before the trade deadline, with Marquis Daniels' return this season uncertain. Scott Foster hit Allen with his fourth foul on a dubious call midway through the third, and Doc Rivers' only real option on the bench was Von Wafer. Wafer's offense has really come around lately and he's worked harder on defense than I previously thought him capable of, but he's not going to be able to hang with Kobe. And while Delonte West may be able to help with that specific matchup, he won't be able to help with, say, LeBron James. And someone other than Paul Pierce is going to have to guard James for stretches should the Celtics meet the Heat in the playoffs.

What that move might be, I don't know. I don't know who's available, and I don't know what we're willing to offer. We don't have many attractive expiring contracts, and our rookies don't make enough money to bring in any significant salary. But both Doc and Danny suggested in the days after Daniels' injury that a move might need to be made, and Thursday night couldn't have done anything but strengthen that opinion.

The temptation, by the way, is to blame injuries on Thursday's loss. Boston started the game with just ten men in uniform, and in the second quarter, Nate Robinson joined West, Daniels, Jermaine O'Neal, Shaquille O'Neal, and Semih Erden on the list of unavailable players, victim of a bruised knee. But as a Celtics fan pointed out on a Laker message board after the game, Boston's starters played plenty of minutes, substantially the amount of minutes you might expect with a full complement of bench players. And the second unit actually did alright -- the game was lost with our starters on the floor.

I do think that simplifies things a bit, and not having a real backup for Allen is a problem that would be solved in this instance if either Daniels or West was healthy. But Boston's starters didn't play well enough for fans to complain that a healthy bench would have made a difference. It might on any one particular night, but it won't for a whole playoff series. If I was going to make an excuse, I'd point to the illness that kept Pierce out of practice on Wednesday. He didn't look to be close to 100% in the game.

As Sports Illustrated's Zach Lowe (a former Celtics Hub writer) pointed out, the Lakers were successful defensively by sagging Kobe off of Rajon Rondo, daring Rondo to beat them with jumpers while Kobe disrupted passing and driving lanes. (Read that Lowe article if you're interested in the Xs and Os.) LA has defended Boston like this for several years now, with varying degrees of success. (A flashback to the 07-08 Finals provides a good example. The Lakers used it to jump out to their huge lead in Game 4; Boston's historic comeback came with Eddie House on the floor. Rondo was similarly in effective in Boston's Game 5 loss, playing just 14:32, but was masterful in the Game 6 clincher in Boston.)

Clearly, there are offensive adjustments that can be made (and have been made in the past). For starters, Rondo can be more aggressive. Boston can bring its offense out higher, leaving more room underneath for Rondo to maneuver on penetration. Rondo can attack the defense from somewhere other than the top of the key, forcing the Lakers to pay more attention to him (if, say, he starts closer to the basket). And I'm sure Doc has plenty of other ideas.

But I'm not sure we'll see such adjustments any time soon, even if another team picks up this strategy. The lack of adjustment in the Lakers game suggests to me that perhaps Doc doesn't want to tip his hand. The Lakers' defensive strategy isn't new. Surely, he has a plan for it. But I can see how he wouldn't want to reveal that plan until necessary -- until the games count, in May and June.

Lowe also mentions the possibility that Miami, Boston's opponent on Sunday, also has the personnel to employ such a strategy, while a team like Orlando does not. Thinking about the Heat though, I'm not so sure. Matching up position-by-position across the perimeter, it would be Rondo-Mario Chalmers, Allen-Dwyane Wade, Pierce-James. Los Angeles executes the strategy by switching Derek Fisher -- a strong, crafty veteran -- on Allen, with Kobe playing free agent. While I think Wade can be effective in the Kobe role, I'm skeptical that Chalmers (or Carlos Arroyo) can handle Ray the way Fisher can.

The other option, and the think the one Lowe had in mind, is to have James sag off Rondo with Mike Miller checking Pierce (and Wade staying on Allen). Miller was unavailable during the teams' first two meetings, but with James and Wade, the Heat don't need a true point guard. I'm honestly not sure of Miller's defensive abilities, but thing that weighs in Boston's favor here is that unlike Allen, whose game is largely based on running off a maze of screens, Pierce is plenty comfortable with the ball in his hands. Therefore, Boston could iso Pierce on any part of the floor that it wanted, keeping the extra defender as far away from him as possible. Pierce excels at the pull-up jumper, too, which is perfect for this kind of situation, because he can get off a good shot before the help gets there. The one thing he needs to be careful of is his tendency to turn his back; that's just asking for James to swoop in for a steal and dunk.

Something to watch for, anyway. And you better be watching. Sunday, 1 p.m. Eastern, ABC. First place in the East is on the line.

The First Lamb: The Miami Heat

Date: Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Time: 7:30 pm (Eastern)

TV: TNT

(Editor's Note: Historically, I haven't talked very much on RwH about upcoming opponents. This season, it's my intention to change that, and to try to preview each game, not in the sense of making predictions or anything like that, but to give more casual fans some idea of what to expect from the opposition. Future editions of "The Next Lamb" will be a lot shorter and may be in a "data dump" sort of format. However, given that Miami was the story of the offseason and I haven't given my thoughts on the new-look Heat yet, I figured I'd take this opportunity to do so.)

The last time we saw the Heat, the Celtics were shrugging off upset talk in dispatching Miami in five relatively easy games in the first round of last year's playoffs. Of course, this year's Heat bear little resemblance to last year's Heat; the team gutted its roster in the offseason, brought in Lebron James and Chris Bosh to play alongside Dwyane Wade, then supplemented its new "Big Three" by signing role players to small contracts.

On the one hand, this development disappointed me. Surveying the landscape of the league, it appeared we were headed for widespread parity. Sure, the Lakers are the two-time defending champs, but the Celtics showed that they were title contenders for at least another year, and Orlando won 59 games a year after reaching the Finals. We also had Kevin Durant leading the young Oklahoma City Thunder, Carmelo Anthony on the Nuggets, Amare' Stoudemire making the Knicks relevant again, and the cagey Spurs still lurking. If James stayed in Cleveland (or went to Chicago, or New York) and Bosh joined Wade in Miami, the league would have been in great shape for years to come.

Instead, we're looking at a league where the talent looks like it may be concentrated in just a few cities for the foreseeable future. If the Miami experiment works, other superstars will try to join forces the way James and Wade and Bosh did, figuring it would be their only shot at a ring as long as the Miami Big Three were around. (You may recall that soon after LeBron and Bosh announced they'd be joining Wade in South Beach, there was talk about Anthony and Chris Paul joining Stoudemire in New York after the season -- and now Anthony seems sure to leave Denver, either via trade or free agency). As much fun as it is to watch a really talented basketball team -- and the Heat are certainly that, at least at the very top end -- I'd rather watch teams fight for home court advantage than see one or two trying to steamroll its way to the league record for most wins in a season. (For the record, I don't think this year's Heat are going to be a serious threat to the Bulls' mark of 72-10.)

It occurred to me, as I was contemplating writing this, that it may appear a bit hypocritical of me to feel this way. After all, the Celtics arguably started this trend by bringing in Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to join Paul Pierce prior to the 2007-08 season. The difference, I think, is that Boston's front office orchestrated that team via trade, whereas the Heat came together on the impetus of the players. It almost feels like an antitrust violation, like the Heat shouldn't be able to have a monopoly on all the good free agents.

On the other hand, while the Heat have me worried about the long-term future of the league, the short-term is extremely enticing. We've never really seen anything like this, and I'll admit that I'm fascinated to see how it turns out. Will James defer to Wade since Miami has always been Wade's city, or will Wade defer to Lebron because, well, because he's Lebron? Will the moody Bosh really be cool with being the third option -- and if he's not, how far will James and Wade go to placate him? How good can a team really be with two dead spots in the starting lineup? How many games can a team win without much of a bench? How will the role players react to all the attention showered on their far more famous teammates? Really, the questions go on and on and on.

We got answers to precious few of those questions in the preseason. Wade hurt a leg muscle within the first three minutes of the first preseason game, and hasn't played in a game since. He'll be back for Tuesday's opener, but he hasn't had much chance to gel with James and Wade, and we haven't been able to see any progress they may have made since Wade returned to practice.

Additionally, Mike Miller -- a sharpshooting wing who does everything that you'd want from a bench player -- broke his thumb in practice last week and won't be available for the next couple of months. Many think that Wade-James-Bosh-Miller-Udonis Haslem is Miami's best unit, and would be the Heat's crunch-time lineup in many circumstances. James Jones, Eddie House, and the newly-signed Jerry Stackhouse will cover Miller's minutes, but with Miller out until January, we won't know what the Heat are capable of until at least then.

With that said, there are still several storylines I'm very interested in tracking during the opening weeks of the regular season, some of which are more applicable to Tuesday night against Boston than others:

• Chemistry. Boston's "Big Three" gelled extremely quickly, at least in part because Pierce, Allen, and Garnett each played different positions. While Wade is technically a shooting guard and James is technically a small forward, both have always been responsible for generating the bulk of their teams' offenses. They are both ball-dominating wings who historically have initiated the offense and set up their teammates, in addition to looking for their own shot. Whether one emerges as the leader or they alternate depending on how the opposition defends them, at least one of them -- and most likely both -- will have to make some pretty major adjustments.
• Point guard. On paper at least, third-year point Mario Chalmers is the perfect complement to Wade/James/Bosh; he's a good three-point shooter with a reputation as a great defender. However, he's been something of a disappointment in his first two seasons in the league. The other option, Carlos Arroyo, is more accomplished as a floor general, but his skill set isn't necessarily a great fit; with defenses keying so heavily on Wade and James (and to a lesser extent, Bosh), the other players will need to be able to knock down shots form the outside, which isn't Arroyo's strong suit. Regardless, the Heat will need to get something out of the point guard position. Boston wouldn't have had the success it has had over the last few seasons without the development of Rajon Rondo, and while Wade/James/Bosh trump Pierce/Allen/Garnett given that the latter trio is so far along in their careers, three guys cannot win a championship on their own.
• Bosh. It's easy to forget about this guy, since he's overshadowed by his two superstar teammates. But Bosh is a very effective player in his own right, a decent rebounder with a deadly mid-range jumper. Defenses will likely focus on Bosh and Wade, which means that their will be opportunities for Bosh. However, he doesn't seem to like playing in the post, which is where he seems to "fit" best with this team, especially since his running mates up front either are non-factors offensively (Anthony) or thrive on high-post play (Haslem and Zydrunas Ilgauskas). Bosh also is a bit of a headcase who has always been "the man," and while he surely knew what he was signing up for, he could bristle at being the third offensive option.
• Center. In 95 minutes over six preseason games, Joel Anthony grabbed just 16 rebounds. Anthony is not an offensive threat and is best described as a shotblocking specialist, so expectations are low for him. And while Wade and James both rebound well for their positions, Anthony will need to clear the glass better than he did in preseason to make his presence on the court anything more than a liability.
• Defense. Like most superstars, Wade and James are most effective playing a "free safety" role on defense. Their athleticism and understanding of basketball allow them to disrupt the other team's offense by leaving their man and roaming around on D. Moreover, not having big on-ball defensive responsibilities allows them to conserve energy for the offensive end. However, I'm not sure the Heat can beat good teams with both wings ignoring their man-to-man responsibilities. I watched a few minutes of the Heat's preseason opener against the Pistons, and saw James lose track of his man twice on defense, resulting in easy baskets.
• Rotations. To me, Miami's bench is so weak, and James and Wade are so duplicative of each other, that it makes sense to split them up a bit more than you typically would split up a starting lineup. I'm not suggesting that coach Erik Spoelstra do something radical like bring James or Wade off the bench. But I do think he should give serious thought to sitting one of them after about six minutes, and having that guy start the second quarter with the second unit while the other rests. Otherwise, I think the Heat will spend a ton of time playing from behind, especially at the beginning of the season, and that's going to wear on them over the course of 82 games.
• Officiating. One thing that really worries me, looking forward to a potential matchup with the Heat in the playoffs, is that Miami now has two guys who are among the officials' favorites. James shot ten free throws per game last year, Wade nine, and Bosh more than eight. While those individual numbers might go down a touch simply because the ball will be spread around a bit more, there's a real danger that they'll win games -- and possibly entire playoff series' -- because of the protection they get from the officials. Additionally, I'm not terribly excited at the prospect of watching a team shoot 40 free throws a game.
• Chasing history. There's been a ton of talk about this team possibly being the greatest in NBA history. As I've said, I think this talk is premature. However, there's no denying that the Heat are capable of winning a ton of games. To do so, however, Wade, James, and Bosh are going to have to play a ton of minutes. If Spoelstra decides to go after the record, those guys will have a lot of mileage on them by the time the playoffs roll around. With that said, the Heat have not only Boston, but also Orlando, on their schedule during the seasons first week. I'm sure they don't want to start the season with losses to both of their main competitors for the East crown, so we may see more minutes from the stars this week than we will later in the season.

And a few quick notes on the Celtics:

• Shaq's the starting center, at least for now. I've said before that I'd prefer Jermaine, but he's been banged up this preseason and I guess he hasn't had enough reps yet. As mentioned above, Anthony isn't someone to worry about on offense, but I imagine the Heat will try to use him as a screener and attack Shaq via the pick and roll. The only other thing that bothers me about this is that it means Garnett has to play Bosh, whereas Jermaine probably could have handled that assignment if Doc had so chosen, allowing KG to anchor the defense.
• As a reminder, Delonte West is not available for this game -- nor the next nine after that -- due to the suspension he's serving for the gun possession incident last year. Apparently, the Celtics must keep him on their active roster -- effectively giving us 11 active guys for the first few weeks of the season.
• In addition to Delonte, Avery Bradley and Kendrick Perkins are unavailable, due to injury. Rumor is that Semih Erden has a sore shoulder and may be inactive; if he can go, the other guy in street clothes will almost certainly be Luke Harangody.

I've been waiting for this day for months. Here's to a great NBA season, and hopefully championship banner number 18 at the end.

Links of the Day (October 21, 2010)

• Mike Miller, perhaps the top player on a thin Miami Heat bench, injured his thumb and could be out six weeks or more.
• John Wall preseason highlight reel. I'm not as high on him as most are, but he's been impressive and at the very least, he'll be fun to watch. Until further notice, if he's in your city, buy a ticket and watch him play. (A/S Truth About It)
• Cool interview with Tommy Heinsohn from Red's Army.
• Oh, Shaq.
• The league has expanded the use of replay this season. It doesn't look like this will change much, other than to expand the time during which officials can use replay beyond the last two minutes. Let's hope it doesn't result in a significant increase in the length of games.
• The latest development in the looming labor dispute.