Week in Review

First order of business is to explain the radio silence over the past week. Mostly, it's due to the fact that Championship Week is my favorite time of year, and I've been obsessed with college ball for the last six days or so. It'll continue through the NCAA Tournament -- and I'll probably post some tourney thoughts throughout on my basically-idle college hoops blog -- but I do pledge to pay the Celtics a little bit more attention here.

Since the last time I posted, after the Golden State win, Boston has gone 1-2, with losses to the Clippers on Wednesday and the Sixers on Friday, and a win over the Bucks on Sunday afternoon.

I never enjoy watching a Celtics loss, but dropping the game in Philly wasn't too upsetting -- nor surprising. Doug Collins has those guys playing really well after a tough start to his first season on the sidelines. Philly had played us very tough twice in December, the first matchup coming down to a Paul Pierce buzzer-beater. Collins also seems to have a particular reverence for the Boston organization and Doc Rivers, and I figured he'd get his team to play hard for him, which they did. (That they came out flat the next night against Milwaukee in a 102-74 loss to the same Bucks team that Boston held to 56 points on Sunday is perhaps the best evidence of that.) Boston hung tough, but couldn't break through and Andre Iguodala put the game away with a very difficult drive that was reminiscent of the shot that appeared to have won the game for Philly back in December (which Pierce ended up winning for the Celtics).

The Philly loss was only annoying because it came on the heels of an awful performance against the Clips at home, a game in which Boston dug itself an early hole that it couldn't quite climb out of. DeAndre Jordan had an unusually good game inside for LA, and they hit like half their three-point attempts, many by Mo Williams.

Those losses really only matter because the top seed in the East is still very much an open question. We're just one game ahead of surprising Chicago, with Miami lingering very much in striking distance. Moreover, Boston's in the midst of a stretch of winnable games, before finishing with some tougher teams and quite a few games on the road. Therefore, any loss, but particularly one at home to a sub-.500 club, matters. Boston showed last year that you don't necessarily need home court advantage to be successful, but from where I'm sitting, a path to the Finals that goes through Orlando and either Chicago or Miami looks a lot better than one that has both the Bulls and Heat as opponents.

Sunday's game against Milwaukee was something of a joke, with the tired Bucks managing just nine first-quarter points before getting only marginally better after that. Keyon Dooling's two missed free throws in the final seconds ensured that this would be a historic evening for the Celtics: a franchise low for points allowed in the shot clock era. The total would have been even lower if not for Earl Barron, a journeyman center who is on his second ten-day contract with the Bucks. Barron, playing hard in the fourth quarter to try and earn a spot on Milwaukee's roster for the rest of the season (believe it or not, despite a 26-39 record, the Bucks are only a couple of games out of the East's final playoff spot), scored ten points, the only Buck to score in double figures.

It was far from a cohesive performance offensively, however, and with three consecutive such performances under the team's belt, fans can only hope that the switch turns back on quickly. Boston is back in action Monday against New Jersey.

Quick bullets about some personnel:

• If you don't follow the team too closely, but peruse the box scores, you may have noticed a new name: Carlos Arroyo. Arroyo started the season as Miami's starting point guard, but subsequently lost that job to Mario Chalmers and was released by the Heat when they signed Mike Bibby. For the first time in this era, Boston has a true, somewhat reliable point guard behind Rajon Rondo. Arroyo's nothing special, but he's not erratic (like Sam Cassell, Stephon Marbury, and Nate Robinson) nor inexperienced (like Gabe Pruitt, Lester Hudson, and Avery Bradley). He's solid with the ball and can make the occasional jumpshot. He's good insurance if the oft-injured Delonte West can't stay healthy, and could see the court alongside West depending on Von Wafer's play and recovery from injury.
• Nenad Krstic has continued to surprise. He posted two double-doubles this week, averaging nearly 16 points and 13 rebounds in the three games. When he traded Kendrick Perkins, Danny Ainge made the point that Boston had gotten off to its fast start and beaten good teams with Shaquille O'Neal starting in the middle while Perk was out. Presumably, this meant that when Shaq came back, he'd take his starting job back. It will be interesting to see which way Doc decides to go when the Big Shamrock does get healthy.
• Glen Davis returned after ten or so days off while he rehabbed a sprained tendon in his knee. He looked good. When he went down with the injury, I remember reading something that indicated he'd been hurting all season. On Sunday, he moved around the court better than he had all year. Perhaps the time off did him some good.

The Next Lamb: The Miami Heat

Game 9: Boston (6-2) at Miami (5-3)

Thursday, November 11

8 p.m. Eastern

TNT

Last meeting: @Boston 88, Miami 80 (10/27/10)

A couple of weeks after Boston spoiled the debut of Pat Riley's super-team, not much has changed with the Miami Heat. Sure, they blew out the Orlando Magic later that week, but that's been the high point during this young season. More recently, the Heat have sandwiched a win over the New Jersey Nets with losses at New Orleans and at home to Utah -- the latter a stunning second-half collapse on Tuesday night.

Up until the second half of the Jazz game, the one consistent aspect of Miami's play this season was its defense. The Heat gave up 96 points in the loss to the Hornets; the only other time an opponent broke 90 was Election Day against the Timberwolves, a game Miami won by 32. That consistent defense was buying the Heat wins while the team comes together offensively and coach Erik Spoelstra figures out his rotations.

After being especially stingy in the first 24 minutes against the Jazz and taking a 51-32 lead into halftime, the Heat surrendered 72 second-half points -- more than they gave up in the entire game against the Magic. Utah needed every one of those 72 points to force overtime, and in the extra period, despite playing without Deron Williams (fouled out) and Al Jefferson (temporarily benched for ineffectiveness), the Jazz held on for the win.

My schedule has been such that I haven't had time to watch much of the Heat other than that first game against the Celtics. The Utah game is sitting on my DVR, but I'm not going to get a chance to get to it before I fly to DC Thursday morning. There's been no shortage of stuff written and said about the Heat, but a great majority of it seems to be centering around how the team is very much a work in progress. As a result, I don't really have any great insights on what to expect from these guys the second time around.

It does appear that Dwyane Wade has remained Miami's first offensive option despite the presence of James. He leads the team in scoring at 26 per (compared to 20.6 for James) and is taking two more shots per game than James. LeBron took over in the second half in the opener against the Celtics, but Wade has led the team in scoring in every other game but one.

This isn't necessarily a bad thing. Prior to the start of the season, I opined offline that Wade could go crazy this year if Lebron let him. By that I meant that opposing defenses would be so focused on LeBron that Wade would get disproportionately little attention relative to his considerable skill. More specifically, James is better at setting the table for his teammates than Wade is, so more of his value is preserved when he's not in the primary scoring role. (Put another way, Wade, when he's not scoring, is less valuable than LeBron when he's not scoring.)

However, James is a formidable scorer, a nearly unstoppable force when he decides that he's going to the basket. I heard on The Basketball Jones this morning that on his way to shooting 5-for-18 against the Jazz, James took a number of bad outside shots -- the same kind he used to take in Cleveland. With such limited depth, Miami needs to get both Wade and James playing dynamically to compete with the elite teams in the league.

Part of the reason that James isn't yet playing the way some had hoped is that he's basically playing point guard. That's not a new role for James, but what is new is that he now has teammates who deserve shots, and he'll be rightly criticized for overshooting with Wade and Bosh on his side. But his own offense can't be an afterthought, at least to the extent that it consists of shooting jumpers to keep the defense honest or to beat the shotclock. Eddie House and James Jones are alternating doing a good job of teaming up with Udonis Haslem to form a decent quintet on the floor, but James would benefit from some sort of contribution from Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers -- something that doesn't seem to be in the offing any time soon.

Miami's frontcourt has been disappointing. Haslem is the only guy who is playing up to his (modest) expectations -- Ilgauskas is, too, I suppose, but expectations for him are too modest to consider. Bosh's shooting percentages are down significantly from when he was in Toronto -- a trend which, if it continues, makes no sense -- and he's not rebounding, which isn't a surprise. He also got torched by Paul Millsap against the Jazz. Miami's starting center, Joel Anthony, is still a complete non-factor offensively, and isn't good enough on the boards to just be a shotblocking specialist. A healthy Boston team could really exploit Miami in the post, but the health statuses of both O'Neals remain in question. Still, Kevin Garnett and Glen Davis could do some serious damage.

Comments are always encouraged on RwH, but especially so today. Miami's on TV all the damn time, and there's a good chance that some of you have seen the Heat more than I have. I feel like my preview here has been a little inadequate, so please chime in with your thoughts on Miami and the big game. Comments after the game are welcome, too; I'm not going to be able to devote full attention to it live.

The First Lamb: The Miami Heat

Date: Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Time: 7:30 pm (Eastern)

TV: TNT

(Editor's Note: Historically, I haven't talked very much on RwH about upcoming opponents. This season, it's my intention to change that, and to try to preview each game, not in the sense of making predictions or anything like that, but to give more casual fans some idea of what to expect from the opposition. Future editions of "The Next Lamb" will be a lot shorter and may be in a "data dump" sort of format. However, given that Miami was the story of the offseason and I haven't given my thoughts on the new-look Heat yet, I figured I'd take this opportunity to do so.)

The last time we saw the Heat, the Celtics were shrugging off upset talk in dispatching Miami in five relatively easy games in the first round of last year's playoffs. Of course, this year's Heat bear little resemblance to last year's Heat; the team gutted its roster in the offseason, brought in Lebron James and Chris Bosh to play alongside Dwyane Wade, then supplemented its new "Big Three" by signing role players to small contracts.

On the one hand, this development disappointed me. Surveying the landscape of the league, it appeared we were headed for widespread parity. Sure, the Lakers are the two-time defending champs, but the Celtics showed that they were title contenders for at least another year, and Orlando won 59 games a year after reaching the Finals. We also had Kevin Durant leading the young Oklahoma City Thunder, Carmelo Anthony on the Nuggets, Amare' Stoudemire making the Knicks relevant again, and the cagey Spurs still lurking. If James stayed in Cleveland (or went to Chicago, or New York) and Bosh joined Wade in Miami, the league would have been in great shape for years to come.

Instead, we're looking at a league where the talent looks like it may be concentrated in just a few cities for the foreseeable future. If the Miami experiment works, other superstars will try to join forces the way James and Wade and Bosh did, figuring it would be their only shot at a ring as long as the Miami Big Three were around. (You may recall that soon after LeBron and Bosh announced they'd be joining Wade in South Beach, there was talk about Anthony and Chris Paul joining Stoudemire in New York after the season -- and now Anthony seems sure to leave Denver, either via trade or free agency). As much fun as it is to watch a really talented basketball team -- and the Heat are certainly that, at least at the very top end -- I'd rather watch teams fight for home court advantage than see one or two trying to steamroll its way to the league record for most wins in a season. (For the record, I don't think this year's Heat are going to be a serious threat to the Bulls' mark of 72-10.)

It occurred to me, as I was contemplating writing this, that it may appear a bit hypocritical of me to feel this way. After all, the Celtics arguably started this trend by bringing in Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to join Paul Pierce prior to the 2007-08 season. The difference, I think, is that Boston's front office orchestrated that team via trade, whereas the Heat came together on the impetus of the players. It almost feels like an antitrust violation, like the Heat shouldn't be able to have a monopoly on all the good free agents.

On the other hand, while the Heat have me worried about the long-term future of the league, the short-term is extremely enticing. We've never really seen anything like this, and I'll admit that I'm fascinated to see how it turns out. Will James defer to Wade since Miami has always been Wade's city, or will Wade defer to Lebron because, well, because he's Lebron? Will the moody Bosh really be cool with being the third option -- and if he's not, how far will James and Wade go to placate him? How good can a team really be with two dead spots in the starting lineup? How many games can a team win without much of a bench? How will the role players react to all the attention showered on their far more famous teammates? Really, the questions go on and on and on.

We got answers to precious few of those questions in the preseason. Wade hurt a leg muscle within the first three minutes of the first preseason game, and hasn't played in a game since. He'll be back for Tuesday's opener, but he hasn't had much chance to gel with James and Wade, and we haven't been able to see any progress they may have made since Wade returned to practice.

Additionally, Mike Miller -- a sharpshooting wing who does everything that you'd want from a bench player -- broke his thumb in practice last week and won't be available for the next couple of months. Many think that Wade-James-Bosh-Miller-Udonis Haslem is Miami's best unit, and would be the Heat's crunch-time lineup in many circumstances. James Jones, Eddie House, and the newly-signed Jerry Stackhouse will cover Miller's minutes, but with Miller out until January, we won't know what the Heat are capable of until at least then.

With that said, there are still several storylines I'm very interested in tracking during the opening weeks of the regular season, some of which are more applicable to Tuesday night against Boston than others:

• Chemistry. Boston's "Big Three" gelled extremely quickly, at least in part because Pierce, Allen, and Garnett each played different positions. While Wade is technically a shooting guard and James is technically a small forward, both have always been responsible for generating the bulk of their teams' offenses. They are both ball-dominating wings who historically have initiated the offense and set up their teammates, in addition to looking for their own shot. Whether one emerges as the leader or they alternate depending on how the opposition defends them, at least one of them -- and most likely both -- will have to make some pretty major adjustments.
• Point guard. On paper at least, third-year point Mario Chalmers is the perfect complement to Wade/James/Bosh; he's a good three-point shooter with a reputation as a great defender. However, he's been something of a disappointment in his first two seasons in the league. The other option, Carlos Arroyo, is more accomplished as a floor general, but his skill set isn't necessarily a great fit; with defenses keying so heavily on Wade and James (and to a lesser extent, Bosh), the other players will need to be able to knock down shots form the outside, which isn't Arroyo's strong suit. Regardless, the Heat will need to get something out of the point guard position. Boston wouldn't have had the success it has had over the last few seasons without the development of Rajon Rondo, and while Wade/James/Bosh trump Pierce/Allen/Garnett given that the latter trio is so far along in their careers, three guys cannot win a championship on their own.
• Bosh. It's easy to forget about this guy, since he's overshadowed by his two superstar teammates. But Bosh is a very effective player in his own right, a decent rebounder with a deadly mid-range jumper. Defenses will likely focus on Bosh and Wade, which means that their will be opportunities for Bosh. However, he doesn't seem to like playing in the post, which is where he seems to "fit" best with this team, especially since his running mates up front either are non-factors offensively (Anthony) or thrive on high-post play (Haslem and Zydrunas Ilgauskas). Bosh also is a bit of a headcase who has always been "the man," and while he surely knew what he was signing up for, he could bristle at being the third offensive option.
• Center. In 95 minutes over six preseason games, Joel Anthony grabbed just 16 rebounds. Anthony is not an offensive threat and is best described as a shotblocking specialist, so expectations are low for him. And while Wade and James both rebound well for their positions, Anthony will need to clear the glass better than he did in preseason to make his presence on the court anything more than a liability.
• Defense. Like most superstars, Wade and James are most effective playing a "free safety" role on defense. Their athleticism and understanding of basketball allow them to disrupt the other team's offense by leaving their man and roaming around on D. Moreover, not having big on-ball defensive responsibilities allows them to conserve energy for the offensive end. However, I'm not sure the Heat can beat good teams with both wings ignoring their man-to-man responsibilities. I watched a few minutes of the Heat's preseason opener against the Pistons, and saw James lose track of his man twice on defense, resulting in easy baskets.
• Rotations. To me, Miami's bench is so weak, and James and Wade are so duplicative of each other, that it makes sense to split them up a bit more than you typically would split up a starting lineup. I'm not suggesting that coach Erik Spoelstra do something radical like bring James or Wade off the bench. But I do think he should give serious thought to sitting one of them after about six minutes, and having that guy start the second quarter with the second unit while the other rests. Otherwise, I think the Heat will spend a ton of time playing from behind, especially at the beginning of the season, and that's going to wear on them over the course of 82 games.
• Officiating. One thing that really worries me, looking forward to a potential matchup with the Heat in the playoffs, is that Miami now has two guys who are among the officials' favorites. James shot ten free throws per game last year, Wade nine, and Bosh more than eight. While those individual numbers might go down a touch simply because the ball will be spread around a bit more, there's a real danger that they'll win games -- and possibly entire playoff series' -- because of the protection they get from the officials. Additionally, I'm not terribly excited at the prospect of watching a team shoot 40 free throws a game.
• Chasing history. There's been a ton of talk about this team possibly being the greatest in NBA history. As I've said, I think this talk is premature. However, there's no denying that the Heat are capable of winning a ton of games. To do so, however, Wade, James, and Bosh are going to have to play a ton of minutes. If Spoelstra decides to go after the record, those guys will have a lot of mileage on them by the time the playoffs roll around. With that said, the Heat have not only Boston, but also Orlando, on their schedule during the seasons first week. I'm sure they don't want to start the season with losses to both of their main competitors for the East crown, so we may see more minutes from the stars this week than we will later in the season.

And a few quick notes on the Celtics:

• Shaq's the starting center, at least for now. I've said before that I'd prefer Jermaine, but he's been banged up this preseason and I guess he hasn't had enough reps yet. As mentioned above, Anthony isn't someone to worry about on offense, but I imagine the Heat will try to use him as a screener and attack Shaq via the pick and roll. The only other thing that bothers me about this is that it means Garnett has to play Bosh, whereas Jermaine probably could have handled that assignment if Doc had so chosen, allowing KG to anchor the defense.
• As a reminder, Delonte West is not available for this game -- nor the next nine after that -- due to the suspension he's serving for the gun possession incident last year. Apparently, the Celtics must keep him on their active roster -- effectively giving us 11 active guys for the first few weeks of the season.
• In addition to Delonte, Avery Bradley and Kendrick Perkins are unavailable, due to injury. Rumor is that Semih Erden has a sore shoulder and may be inactive; if he can go, the other guy in street clothes will almost certainly be Luke Harangody.

I've been waiting for this day for months. Here's to a great NBA season, and hopefully championship banner number 18 at the end.