Friday, November 5, 2010

The Next Lamb: The Chicago Bulls

Game 6: Chicago (2-2) at Boston (4-1)
Friday, November 5
8 p.m. (Eastern)
ESPN

The Bulls have had an up-and-down start to the season. Indeed, in just four games, they've been down, then up, then down again. It started with a loss to Oklahoma City in the opener, no shame there, but continued well into the next game against Detroit. Chicago gave up 63 first-half points in that game, before turning things around with 34-9 fourth quarter that resulted in a ten-point win. That strong play carried over into their third game, a convincing home win against Portland.

Then came their fourth game, Thursday night in Chicago against the Knicks. Like they did against the Pistons, the Bulls had a terrible first half, allowing 70 points. This time around, however, they didn't improve enough in the second half to overcome the bad start, losing 120-112. The Bulls were down quite a bit more than that, and star point guard Derrick Rose sat the final 9:30 for what his coach said were performance-based reasons.

So, yeah, it's a little hard to tell what we're going to get out of Chicago. However, we do know that there are players to watch and storylines to follow that go beyond Brian Scalabrine's return to the TD Banknorth Garden:

Derrick Rose - Rose's short career has fascinated me. He had a solid, though unspectacular rookie season -- until the playoffs, when he scored 36 points in his postseason debut. He didn't quite keep up that pace during a truly epic seven-game series, but he did boost his scoring average by about three points from the regular season. It appeared that he had done what he did in his lone year in college, at Memphis: Defer to his teammates during the regular season, then turn it on during the postseason.

I expected a huge season from him in 2009-10, and I wasn't alone. My reasoning was that the departure of Ben Gordon would force Rose to take on a more assertive role on offense. "Once Rose figures out how good he is, he'll be unstoppable" I could be heard to say.

Rose did make a statistical jump last year, averaging four more points than he did in his rookie season (not surprising, given Gordon's absence) while improving his shooting percentage (which was already very good for a point guard who takes as many shots as he does). But that jump wasn't the leap I wasn't expecting, and the Bulls -- while they won 41 games and made the playoffs -- were something of a disappointment.

Perhaps this is the year that Rose learns just how good he is, and makes that leap. Through four games, he's averaging 26.8 points, four rebounds, and ten assists. What's particularly interesting is how quickly Rose has adapted to new coach Tom Thibodeau's offense. Rose came out of the starting blocks firing, putting up 31 shots against Oklahoma City in the opener and 27 against Detroit the next time out. He wasn't necessarily playing selfishly -- he had 13 total assists in the two contests -- but it's been suggested that the shots he took in those games were simply the shots that presented themselves. Rose's shot totals have gone down in the last two games, however, and he's set career highs in assists in consecutive games.

Boston will definitely have its hands full with Rose, but Rose will also have to deal with Rajon Rondo -- a matchup that has often gone in Boston's favor. Rondo actually outplayed Rose during the latter's breakout postseason, posting the following lines over the seven games of the series: 29/9/7, 19/12/16, 20/11/6, 25/11/11, 28/8/11, 8/9/19, and 7/5/11. That was all Tom Thibodeau -- Boston's defensive guru in previous seasons -- took over in Chicago, though the Bulls have struggled defensively this year, often with point guards. (More on Thibs below.)

Luol Deng: I've never been much of a Deng fan, but when a guy scores 40 points in a game, as Deng did last Saturday against the Blazers, you have to mention him. Deng's rarely been successful against the Celtics over the last couple of seasons, because he's been exactly the type of player the Boston defense is geared to stop: A slasher, without a great three-point shot, who is willing to take mid-range jumpers (which he hits at about a league-average rate). The Celtics thrive on letting these guys settle for jumpers, confident that they'll eventually miss enough of them to give Boston the game.

Deng's three-point range appears to be improving, however, and this may be the year we really see the fruits of that. In his first two years, Deng shot a bunch of threes and made them at a horrific rate. Over the next three years, Deng all but eliminated the three-point shot from his arsenal, attempting one every four games or so, on average. Last season, however, Deng shot 83 triples in 70 games, making 32 -- one more make than his rookie year, on 34 fewer attempts.

This year, Deng is 7-for-14 from behind the arc. The makes suggest his stroke has improved, but the attempts suggest a change in philosophy, one that can probably be attributed in part to Thibodeau.

Tom Thibodeau: Speaking of Thibodeau, it's going to be very interesting to see him coach against the team he was so intimately involved with over three great seasons. His new team is clearly having problems defensively, and I haven't watched the Bulls, so I can't say whether it's due to his players not having grasped the system, or them simply not being good enough. But Thibodeau knows the Celtics' offensive tendencies as well as anyone, and as far as the Bulls offense goes, he'll esesentially be scheming against himself. Should be interesting to watch.

2 comments:

Assistant Commisioner said...

Thibs made an interesting point in his between quarter interview with Sager in the game last night about their defense. He basically said they were doing the right things in terms of shutting off penetration, but at that point they weren't contesting the shots hard enough. Based on that, it seems like they are close to getting a handle on his defensive system, but not quite there.

That interview was great, btw, as Thibs talked for about five minutes while answering two questions, and talked through quite a bit of action when the quarter came back on. It was amusing.

H.S. Slam, Ph.D said...

Thanks for the knowledge. It's interesting to hear him mention that contesting jumpers was the issue. It never really looked to me that Boston was all that concerned with closing out on most jumpers.