Monday, November 2, 2009

Rondo Gets His

5 years, $55 million.

Up to this point, I've avoided writing about this topic because I didn't have any "insider" information and I didn't have much to say that wasn't already out there. Now that he's signed his contract extension, a few words on the subject.

(I don't have the most knowledgeable or interesting perspectives on this, so you may also want to look at what these guys have to say:
First of all, for those who are blissfully unfamiliar with the vagaries of NBA contracts, the Celtics had until today to agree to a contract extension with Rajon Rondo. If they didn't work one out, Rondo would have become a restricted free agent this summer. In that scenario, another NBA team could sign Rondo to an offer sheet, which the Celtics would have had to match if they wanted to retain him, or decline.

As a general rule, if there are no negative consequences to waiting, it makes sense to wait: an injury to Rondo or other key parts could change the direction the team is headed, and therefore affect whether the Celtics wanted to pay him. In this case, however, there were two possible negative consequences of waiting:

1)Rondo signs an offer sheet for a little more than we could have signed him to an extension before the deadline; and/or
2)Rondo signs an offer sheet for a LOT more than we could have signed him to an extension before the deadline.

The first of these was overwhelmingly likely. Teams always overpay in free agency. However, if this was the only concern, I'd still counsel waiting: Paying Rondo 12 or 13 million dollars a year instead of 11 isn't going to make a huge difference (the team will still be over the cap and their flexibility to pick up other free agents therefore hamstrung).

The second was less likely, but much more concerning: someone wildly overpaying him, all but forcing us to let him go.

An interesting factor at play here is that the current economic market combined with the top-heavy free agent class in 2010 has resulted in a large number of NBA teams cutting salary. That means that next summer, more teams than usual will have a lot of cap space, and while some will certainly not spend all of it for financial reasons, some team or teams will, having missed out on the big-name free agents (Lebron, Wade, Bosh) and responding to pressure from fans, will use up that cap space to overpay the next tier of available free agents, which includes Rondo.

Because of that possibility, this is a logical signing for the Celtics: It's a little more than they wanted to pay for him and it comes with some risks, but it takes losing him altogether out of the equation, vital for a team that is committed to winning now and in the next couple of years.

By the way, note that Rondo did not, through four games this year, play like a man in search of a contract extension. The extension he sought and ultimately signed is for five years, by which time Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen will be well beyond the age when we can count on them for deep playoff runs. For the Boston front office to sign Rondo to an extension, they had to believe he was capable of playing a different role for this team than the one he plays currently. It would have been easy, then, for Rondo to display his scoring ability, at the expense of others. Instead, Rondo has played as unselfishly as ever, taking his role as catalyst to new levels. Through these first four games, Rondo has twice as many assists as field goal attempts (47 to 23). He's gone about this the right way, and it's nice to see him rewarded.

1 comment:

Assistant Commisioner said...

I have but one thing to say. w00t!