Thoughts in Advance of Game 7

Lately, my recap posts seem to be focusing on the intangibles; the story, rather than the Xs and Os. The Celtics' resilience and LeBron James' ability to rise to the occasion will no doubt play a part in determining who wins Saturday night, but there's actual basketball to be played, too. I want to spend a few minutes talking a little bit about some "basketball things" that I've got my mind on heading into Game 7. They're in no real order.

1. Paul Pierce is due for a big game. We showered him with praise after he that dagger in Game 5, so it's fair to say that he was awful in Game 6. I'm inclined to forgive him more for the defensive end (no one was stopping LeBron in that one) than for the offensive end, where he shot 4 for 18, including missed layups and clanged jumpers. The problem is that Pierce really hasn't been very good all series, with just two games of shooting that could even be considered decent. Given the shots he's getting, and missing, I assume that it's his knee, and I'm not bringing this up to criticize him. Rather, I mention it to say that anyone who expects him to come to our rescue with a huge game akin to Cleveland in 2008 is probably going to be disappointed.

2. With that said, Pierce is still a key component to our offense and one of the game's most clutch performers. To that end, we need to figure out a way to keep him on the floor. He's fouled out twice this series (in addition to getting DQ'd from Game 7 against Philly), and he picked up 3 fouls in the first half of Game 6. He's had success guarding James in the past, and he hasn't gotten any favors from the officials, but I think it's clear that the knee is hampering his performance on that end, as well, just as you'd expect it to. Some of this is on Pierce, who needs to play smart and not take bad fouls, but some of it is also on Doc. If you're willing to let Mickael Pietrus and Marquis Daniels and even Brandon Bass check James when Pierce is out of the game, then you have to be willing to put one of those guys on him to protect Pierce when he's in the game. For example, in Game 6, when Pierce came back into the game in the second quarter with two fouls, he went right back on James, picked up his third foul with like six minutes to go, and had to sit the rest of the half. To start the third, Doc put Bass on James, ostensibly to protect Pierce. But by waiting until Pierce was already in serious foul trouble before making a move, Doc kept Pierce off the court for a big chunk of the second quarter. The key is to start protecting him before it affects his playing time.

3. We only saw a possession or two of zone in Game 6, and absent truly exigent circumstances, I hope that means we've seen the last of it in this series. Miami was reasonably effective scoring against the zone in Game 5; what worked is that Boston was changing defenses and disguising what they were running, and that led to confusion and some wasted possessions when we went back to man-to-man. The element of surprise is gone, however, and Miami not only is ready for the zone, they are ready for us to switch it up. That particular trick isn't going to work anymore, and the zone itself isn't effective enough on its own.

4. Rajon Rondo has to be aggressive. He is charged with a nearly impossible task; he's the only Celtic who is able to consistently get easy baskets for himself, and yet he also has to get the other guys going, too. What Rondo must realize is that his offense opens up the floor for everyone else; when he is penetrating and getting into the lane, shots open up for others, whether it's Kevin Garnett on the pick and roll, Garnett and Bass on the pick-and-pop, or Pierce and Ray Allen spotting up along the perimeter. It's fine to run a few plays for Pierce and Allen early to try and get them a few jumpers, but if that isn't working, Rondo needs to shoulder a heavier scoring load himself, quickly. We can't afford to waste half a quarter trying to get the other guys going. If Rondo's attacking, then the rest of the offense should establish itself.

5. We need something from the bench. While a performance like the one we got from Pietrus in Game 5 would be nice, something to that degree isn't even necessary. I expect Rondo to play the full 48 minutes, and I expect that James will, as well. But Garnett won't, and neither will Pierce and Allen. Pietrus, Daniels, and Keyon Dooling must play their usual strong defense while scoring at least enough to keep us in striking distance.

6. I don't think that home court advantage will affect the players; we've played our two best games of the series in Miami's barn. I do worry that the home crowd will affect the refs. Officiating played a huge role in Boston's Game 2 loss. While I don't know who is assigned to Game 7, I do know that I don't want to see Eddie Malloy or Billy Kennedy, two officials who have shown anti-Boston proclivities and who seem overmatched by big games. And regardless of who is officiating, the players need to put any bad calls behind them quickly.

7. Finally, Boston must be resilient. Miami is a strong defensive team with a couple remarkably talented offensive players. It's nearly impossible to play a game against the Heat without them going on a couple of six- or eight-point runs. The key will be preventing them from turning those spurts into 12- and 14-point surges. Boston can win this game if they are down a few points entering the fourth quarter, but if they're down double-digits after the third, the task may be too hard. The Celtics were resilient in Game 5, and it paid off; Boston stayed in it when things weren't going right in the first half, then made their run when the shots started falling in the third quarter. They were resilient in Game 6, too; the difference is that we couldn't get anything to fall even as we continued to hang around. As long as we stay resilient, then we'll have a great shot at this. Fortunately, staying resilient is one of the things we do best.

Game 7 starts at 8:30 Eastern on ESPN. Let's do this!