Celtics Draft Report Card

Boston added three guys in Thursday night's draft. Let's talk about them.

With the 21st overall pick, the Celtics grabbed Jared Sullinger, the sophomore power forward out of Ohio State. If you read my pre-draft post, you know much I love this pick.

I said it before, but let me reiterate it now: At the time Sullinger announced he was returning to the Buckeyes after his freshman season, he was projected to be the top pick in the 2011 draft. Now, maybe he would have dropped a bit after individual workouts, and maybe the doctors last year would have found the back problems that they discovered this year, which caused him to fall all the way out of the lottery. But taking solely his basketball ability into account, getting Sullinger at 21 is unprecedented value.

The rub, of course, is his health. Boston's saying that they consider him low risk, particularly given the potential reward, but that's precisely what you'd expect a team to say right after they spent a first-round pick on a guy. For me, though, whether that's true or not doesn't really matter. For his potential at that position, I'd be willing to take on quite a bit more risk.

I'm not a doctor, so enough talk about his injury risk. Obviously, if he can't play, then the following is moot, but here's my brief analysis of Sullinger and how I think he fits in.

At just a tick under 6'8" in bare feet (he measured 6'9" in sneaks), Sullinger seems a bit short to be a consistent NBA low-post threat. But an uncomfortably common topic of conversation during Ohio State broadcasts during his two years at the school was Sullinger's rather ample backside. At 268 pounds, the dude is big, even if he's not tall by NBA power forward standards, and he used that size to average more than 17 points and nearly 10 rebounds across two collegiate seasons. He's one of those guys who produces consistently if unspectacularly, the kind of guy about whom people like to say things like "he just knows how to play." In reality, what that means is that he knows how to use his best asset -- his size -- to score around the basket, despite not being blessed with uncommon height or athleticism. I'd feel very comfortable throwing the ball into the post to him right off the bat.

His interior game is where he's most effective, but he showed improved range his sophomore season, hitting 40% from the college three-point line on about one attempt per game. His ability to step out and hit the jumper should come in handy throughout his NBA career, even if his most immediate role in the offense, given current team construction, is in the pivot.

Sullinger's defense isn't terribly noteworthy -- he wasn't a prolific shotblocker in college and won't be in the pros. His size and strength should keep him from getting pushed around on the low block, however, and one of his great strengths is rebounding -- which translates very well, historically, from college to the pro game.

Boston's roster is in so much flux right now that it's hard to predict how Sullinger might fit in on next year's team. Kevin Garnett is mulling retirement and Brandon Bass declined his player option. Other than JaJuan Johnson, who played sparing in his rookie season, we have no bigs currently under contract. Obviously, if we lose Bass and can't find replacement in free agency, Sullinger could slide right into the starting lineup. Assuming we get both KG and Bass back, Sullinger could conceivably start over Bass or play on the second unit alongside Bass if we find a center to start and let Garnett play his preferred power forward position, but Bass probably isn't re-signing in Boston for a backup's pay. For these reasons, and because I'm convinced that Garnett and Bass are coming back, I think the most likely scenario is that Sullinger becomes the first big off the bench to spell KG.

I've been critical of Doc for his development of rookies in the Big Three era, and for Sullinger to contribute in the short term he'll have to buck the trend of young Celtics not getting much burn until their second year. But Sullinger is perhaps the most NBA-ready rookie Doc has had since coming to Boston in 2004, and certainly the most since Rajon Rondo. I expect that Sullinger will have a big role on next year's Celtics team.

I really can't emphasize enough how excited I am about this pick. If things go our way and Sullinger's back holds up and allows him to have a career of any sort of length, it's the kind of pick that can change a franchise's fortunes.

I'm considerably less excited about Fab Melo, the Syracuse sophomore who Boston took immediately after Sullinger with the 22nd pick. Melo, a native Brazilian, was one of the top centers in the high school class of 2010, and was predicted by many to be the Big East newcomer of the year the following season. He was completely overmatched in his first year of college ball, though, playing around 10 minutes per game and averaging 2.3 points and 1.9 rebounds per contest. He came back for his sophomore season in much better shape and was something of a revelation for the Orange last year, and he declared for the draft after averaging about eight points and six rebounds on a very deep and balanced Syracuse team.

The justification for this pick really rests on two grounds: the potential that made him so highly-touted coming out of high school; and his one NBA-level skill, his shotblocking. I can't speak to the former because I don't follow prep ball on a national level. As for the latter, his 2.9 blocks per game last year are impressive, particularly considering he only averaged around 25 minutes per night.

I've got my concerns, though. Melo is an obvious project on offense -- while he improved his scoring his sophomore year, everything of his that wasn't a dunk looked awkward, like he was lucky it went in. And while I like his shotblocking, I have no idea what kind of defender he'll be in the NBA because he spent his whole college career playing zone -- and not just any zone, but a zone that encourages the opponent to make paint catches and go up with shots; in other words, a zone that facilitates shotblocking. Will Melo be able to hold his own defending an NBA post-up? I have no idea. I do know that he's prone to foul trouble, which isn't a great sign given that he was playing zone. It's not at all clear to me that Melo is any better than Greg Stiemsma.

Of course, when you evaluate a draft pick, you have to take into account not only the player picked, but the opportunity cost of that player -- the players who could have been chosen instead. Sullinger and Melo came at the end of a big man run in the middle of the first round; John Henson, Royce White, Tyler Zeller, Terrence Jones, and Andrew Nicholson all were taken in the seven picks immediately leading up to 21 and 22. The big-man cupboard was getting bare -- only three were selected in the final eight picks of the first round after Boston made its picks. Of those three, Miles Plumlee was a surprise first-rounder; Festus Ezeli was projected a bit later in the first round; and Arnett Moultrie had some character concerns that had him ping-ponging up and down the mock draft boards all season. If Boston was going to take a big, it's not like there were obvious choices available other than Melo, though in retrospect I probably would have preferred Ezeli.

Center is an obvious need for the Celtics. We've got none under contract, and all the ones we have ties to have age or injury concerns, and/or they are career role players. On the other hand, Melo is highly unlikely to make any sort of positive contribution in his rookie season, and center is hardly the only position of need on the Celtics. There were plenty of shooters available when we took Melo, and at the time, I wanted Jeff Taylor, preferring him over his Vanderbilt teammate John Jenkins (a better shooter) mainly due to his size and defensive reputation. A small part of the reason I liked the Sullinger pick in theory was that we had the second first-rounder as a safety valve, something to help ensure that we didn't come out of this draft empty-handed if Sullinger's health becomes a big issue. Melo is a project, and so that risk is still there.

Finally, at 51, we took Melo's college teammate, Kris Joseph. I like the idea of drafting a wing player -- we had addressed the big man issue earlier in the draft, and there weren't any we left on the board that I had strong positive feelings about. We need wings, too, and with the emergence of Avery Bradley and E'Twaun Moore showing flashes of competence during his rookie season -- not to mention the potential return of Ray Allen -- it seemed like small forward was a bigger need than shooting guard. (That might change if Allen leaves and we sign Jeff Green and Mickael Pietrus.) When Detroit grabbed Kim English at 44, I was relatively indifferent about who we got. Darius Johnson-Odom is an NBA level athlete, but he may be too small to guard shooting guards, never mind power forwards; Kevin Jones' motor and rebounding ability make him a little bit intriguing, but he's undersized (and ultimately went undrafted); and Marcus Denmon is a pure scorer who at 6'3" is probably too small for our needs. I was a little surprised that Ohio State's William Buford went undrafted, but there's nothing wrong with preferring Joseph over him.

Joseph, by the way, played four years at Syracuse. He appears to me to be a strong leader, the kind of guy who leads by example, and he made a lot of big shots for Cuse over the course of his career. He reminds me a little bit of Paul Pierce, actually; a deceptively athletic slasher who can shoot it a little bit, good rebounder, and at least the potential to be a decent defender. Obviously, I don't think his ceiling is nearly as high as Pierce's turned out to be, but with the 51st pick, you're not really worried about the guy failing to pan out and any positive contribution at all is worth it. With Joseph's experience and polish, he's got a good chance of meeting that minimum standard.

This is allegedly a report card, so I guess I should give a grade. I'll give it a B+. Sullinger is an obvous A, while Melo strikes me as a C; the "+" comes in because, as discussed, I don't really think there were any obvious alternatives to Melo.

Free agency starts Sunday, and it's only then that we'll start to get a picture of what the Celtics are going to look like in 2012-13. KG is the first domino to fall, and his decision will likely determine whether Sullinger is a contributor to another run, or a piece around which to rebuild.