Quick Pre-Draft Thoughts

I love the NBA Draft. It's my third-favorite sports day of the year, behind the Saturday before Selection Sunday and the first day of the NCAA Tournament. Thursday night is like Christmas morning for me.

However, for whatever reason, I find myself less and less interested with the whole mock draft scene. There are too many x-factors -- too many trades, too many surprise picks, too many red herrings in the days leading up -- for it to be a meaningful exercise. (Not, I should point out, that I have anything against meaningless exercises.) A couple of people have built dream careers on the Internet out of draft prognostication, and good on 'em. It's just not for me.

So I'm not going to sit here and speculate on who the Celtics are going to take at 21 and 22. To do so would require me to try and guess who gets taken 1 through 20, and that's just too hard once you get past the lottery and into the teens. I do, however, have a couple of things on my wish list.

1. Whatever we do, I hope that we don't trade our two first-round picks to move up just a couple of spots. There are reports that Danny Ainge asked Iowa State power forward Royce White to shut down his workouts, which is basically a promise that we'll take White if he's available when it's our turn to pick. I never know whether to believe these things -- there are enough false reports in the days leading up to every draft to seriously discount just about everything you hear.

Regardless of whether it's true, I think it'd be a big mistake to put all of our eggs in one basket by exchanging our two picks for one slightly better pick. The Celtics have serious personnel needs in both the frontcourt and the backcourt, and this draft is loaded with value all the way down through the first round. I'm not talking about stars, but solid players with potential for very productive NBA careers. If another team snags White before we get a chance to pick him, there are plenty of consolation prizes: Andrew Nicholson, the center from St. Bonaventure; Arnett Moultrie, the rebounding machine from Mississippi State; Jeff Taylor, the sweet shooting wing from Vanderbilt who is one of the best defenders in the draft; trust me, the list goes on and on.

There's something to be said for getting the guy you really want, but White -- or any other player we're likely to try to trade up a few spots to get -- isn't the kind of sure thing that's worth two picks. The obvious counterargument is Rajon Rondo, who Phoenix drafted at 21 on our behalf in the 2006 draft. Ainge saw his guy in Rondo and made the move to get him, and it's obviously worked out incredibly well for the Celtics. But the price for Rondo was relatively cheap -- we basically just bought the pick from the Suns. Passing up the chance to draft another guy who could have a similar impact to White (or whoever) is just too large of a price.

I'm not totally against the idea of a trade, but if we do it, it has to be for the right reasons. And the right reasons are getting an established veteran and/or freeing up cap room for free agency, not moving up to take a guy who may or may not pan out.

2. If Jared Sullinger is available when we pick, I hope we take him. Sullinger was a potential top overall pick after his freshman year at Ohio State, but he chose to return to school for his sophomore season -- after which his draft stock dropped, in part due to a somewhat lackluster year, comparatively, and in part because this draft is perceived to be deeper than last year's was (although last year's class turned out to be rather underrated). Even so, he was a projected in the top ten this year ... until team doctors started examining him and raised questions about his back. These concerns go well beyond the back spasms that caused him to miss some games this past season; we're talking long-term durability issues, concerns of the same kind that ruined the careers of, for example, Greg Oden and Brandon Roy. Teams are worried enough about his health that the league's intel suggests he's likely to fall out of the lottery entirely, and the NBA therefore elected not to invite him to sit in the Green Room during the draft.

Sullinger may well go before we pick, and if he does, it's a moot point. Even if he is available, he's an obvious risk. But Sullinger is a good kid, a hard worker, and a smart basketball player. He's not a monster athlete, but he knows how to score around the basket, and he's a good rebounder. He has some range, too. Some people look at him and see a little bit of Kevin Love in him -- though Love's blossoming into a legitimate star isn't the kind of thing we should project for anyone. But Sullinger possess the kind of talent that is rarely available in the bottom third of the first round, and particularly with back-to-back picks serving as kind of an insurance policy on Sullinger's health, I think it'd be a mistake not to roll the dice with him if the opportunity is there.

Ainge has some history of taking high-potential guys who, for whatever reason, fall in the draft, with mixed results; Avery Bradley (#19 in 2010) turned out well, while Billy Walker (#47 in 2008) didn't. Those guys fell mostly for performance reasons, though, and health issues are a different ballgame. Still, it's a risk I hope we have the opportunity to take.