I'm back home after a long golf weekend in Louisville and then a quick trip to Vegas to see a good friend and check out some summer league basketball. I am, quite frankly, exhausted, and I'm completely daunted by the idea that in a month, I'll be starting in a new job in a new city. It's going to be an even busier few weeks, and so now is probably my best (only?) opportunity to write a bit about the Celtics' offseason.
Boston has had a pretty busy couple of weeks themselves, actually. They sent their summer league squad to both Orlando and Vegas. And then today, they finalized a sign-and-trade deal for Houston's Courtney Lee.
We'll start with Lee, since that's the big news. The problem is that I haven't paid much attention to him during his NBA career. From what I understand, though, everyone is pretty excited about it. He can shoot -- not as well as Ray Allen, but he can shoot -- and he can defend, which was one of Allen's weak spots. And he's 26. That sounds pretty good for four years and $21.5 million, which is the contract we gave him. He'll likely settle into a backup role in the backcourt alongside the newly-acquired Jason Terry, but if Avery Bradley's shoulders haven't healed, he'll begin the season as our starting two-guard, with Terry remaining in the sixth-man role in which he thrived in Dallas.
Lee, while not a star, is clearly an NBA rotation player, and that's something we sorely needed last year. The money's good, so the signing is good. The only other factor to be considered is what we gave up for him, because it was a sign-and-trade. I don't know all the details, and it sounds like Portland is involved somehow, but the bottom line appears to be that we gave up JaJuan Johnson, E'Twaun Moore, Sean Williams, Sasha Pavlovic, and a 2nd-round pick for him.
I don't care about Williams and Pavlovic, two guys who don't fit into anyone's long-term plans. Picks are always nice to have, but what is likely to be a late second-rounder shouldn't at all be a deterrent to add a guy who will be an integral piece to what hopefully is a deep playoff run. That leaves Johnson and Moore, the two kids we took out of Purdue two drafts ago and who played very limited minutes in their first NBA seasons.
The funny thing about this trade from a RwH perspective is that other than Jared Sullinger, the guy I had planned on writing most about based on my observation of one summer league game in Vegas was Moore. I thought Moore was better in the few opportunities he had last season than Johnson was in his, and Moore was clearly the more advanced player against the Bulls in summer league action on Tuesday. Moore was on fire from the outside, but he also did a nice job running the team from the lead guard position. Lee is clearly an upgrade, but I wouldn't have been totally uncomfortable entering the season with Moore as our fourth guard. With that said, the Rockets are reportedly releasing Moore (as a second-round pick in 2011, his contract isn't guaranteed) so I think there's a chance we could eventually get him back, were we so inclined.
As for Johnson, I doubt very much that we'll be regretting this trade a couple of years from now. He's a long, tall kid with good range and athleticism, but he doesn't seem like a guy who is going to develop into a post threat, and as an inconsistent stretch 4 his value is limited. He obviously didn't get much of a chance to make a splash in his one season in green, but there isn't a lot of evidence that he'll be any good down the road.
In other words, I'm pretty happy with this deal. With Lee, Terry, Bradley, and Rajon Rondo, we've got a deep, versatile backcourt that is strong defensively.
Onto the rookies, the only guys now worth talking about at summer league. Kris Joseph didn't do anything to impress, but like most second-rounders, he wasn't likely to be a big part of the team's plans. Fab Melo didn't do anything to alleviate my concerns about him -- he wasn't a disaster, but the only positive thing I can say about him is that he runs the floor better than most guys his size.
That leaves Sullinger. The guy is a load, no question -- he's got a huge lower body. He doesn't necessarily look like an NBA player because his arms aren't defined and he looks a little flabby up top, but you could say the same thing about Charles Barkley and Glen Davis and those guys didn't have any problems from a strength perspective. Sullinger proved all he needed to prove to me with regards to his strength, in fact, by repeatedly holding off Leon Powe in the post and on rebounds. Say what you want about Powe, who was playing for Chicago's summer league squad in an attempt to find an NBA job somewhere, but Celtics fans know how strong he is and how hard he plays. If you are strong enough to handle Powe, you are strong enough to handle just about anyone at the four position.
Offensively, the game I saw was not his best of the summer, but judging his offensive ability on one summer league game would be foolish. Defensively, a big concern with him has been his pick-and-roll defense. I didn't notice him getting exploited, but similarly, defending during summer league and defending a pick-and-roll run by actual NBA players is something else entirely. We'll have to wait-and-see about him, although all the evidence points to him being able to hack it at the NBA level. The other thing that jumped out at me was his second jumpability; he got off the ground a lot more quickly than you'd expect from a guy his size. This had me pretty excited about him being light on his feet, until one of my friends pointed out to me that it's easy to look like you're getting off the ground for your second jump quickly when you don't get up very high on your first jump. I guess we'll have to see about that.
As a quick aside, I did get a chance to watch Royce White, the guy from Iowa State who some Cs fans were excited about before Houston scooped him up. He's a great passer for a guy his size, but nothing else stood out. I was more impressed with Terrence Jones, who the Rockets also took in the first round. Jones is a lot bigger than I thought he was, and he's got very good ball skills for a guy his size. There's still a question about his position, but I have a feeling he's gonna be a nice NBA player for them.
Showing posts with label Royce White. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Royce White. Show all posts
Friday, July 20, 2012
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Quick Pre-Draft Thoughts
I love the NBA Draft. It's my third-favorite sports day of the year, behind the Saturday before Selection Sunday and the first day of the NCAA Tournament. Thursday night is like Christmas morning for me.
However, for whatever reason, I find myself less and less interested with the whole mock draft scene. There are too many x-factors -- too many trades, too many surprise picks, too many red herrings in the days leading up -- for it to be a meaningful exercise. (Not, I should point out, that I have anything against meaningless exercises.) A couple of people have built dream careers on the Internet out of draft prognostication, and good on 'em. It's just not for me.
So I'm not going to sit here and speculate on who the Celtics are going to take at 21 and 22. To do so would require me to try and guess who gets taken 1 through 20, and that's just too hard once you get past the lottery and into the teens. I do, however, have a couple of things on my wish list.
1. Whatever we do, I hope that we don't trade our two first-round picks to move up just a couple of spots. There are reports that Danny Ainge asked Iowa State power forward Royce White to shut down his workouts, which is basically a promise that we'll take White if he's available when it's our turn to pick. I never know whether to believe these things -- there are enough false reports in the days leading up to every draft to seriously discount just about everything you hear.
Regardless of whether it's true, I think it'd be a big mistake to put all of our eggs in one basket by exchanging our two picks for one slightly better pick. The Celtics have serious personnel needs in both the frontcourt and the backcourt, and this draft is loaded with value all the way down through the first round. I'm not talking about stars, but solid players with potential for very productive NBA careers. If another team snags White before we get a chance to pick him, there are plenty of consolation prizes: Andrew Nicholson, the center from St. Bonaventure; Arnett Moultrie, the rebounding machine from Mississippi State; Jeff Taylor, the sweet shooting wing from Vanderbilt who is one of the best defenders in the draft; trust me, the list goes on and on.
There's something to be said for getting the guy you really want, but White -- or any other player we're likely to try to trade up a few spots to get -- isn't the kind of sure thing that's worth two picks. The obvious counterargument is Rajon Rondo, who Phoenix drafted at 21 on our behalf in the 2006 draft. Ainge saw his guy in Rondo and made the move to get him, and it's obviously worked out incredibly well for the Celtics. But the price for Rondo was relatively cheap -- we basically just bought the pick from the Suns. Passing up the chance to draft another guy who could have a similar impact to White (or whoever) is just too large of a price.
I'm not totally against the idea of a trade, but if we do it, it has to be for the right reasons. And the right reasons are getting an established veteran and/or freeing up cap room for free agency, not moving up to take a guy who may or may not pan out.
2. If Jared Sullinger is available when we pick, I hope we take him. Sullinger was a potential top overall pick after his freshman year at Ohio State, but he chose to return to school for his sophomore season -- after which his draft stock dropped, in part due to a somewhat lackluster year, comparatively, and in part because this draft is perceived to be deeper than last year's was (although last year's class turned out to be rather underrated). Even so, he was a projected in the top ten this year ... until team doctors started examining him and raised questions about his back. These concerns go well beyond the back spasms that caused him to miss some games this past season; we're talking long-term durability issues, concerns of the same kind that ruined the careers of, for example, Greg Oden and Brandon Roy. Teams are worried enough about his health that the league's intel suggests he's likely to fall out of the lottery entirely, and the NBA therefore elected not to invite him to sit in the Green Room during the draft.
Sullinger may well go before we pick, and if he does, it's a moot point. Even if he is available, he's an obvious risk. But Sullinger is a good kid, a hard worker, and a smart basketball player. He's not a monster athlete, but he knows how to score around the basket, and he's a good rebounder. He has some range, too. Some people look at him and see a little bit of Kevin Love in him -- though Love's blossoming into a legitimate star isn't the kind of thing we should project for anyone. But Sullinger possess the kind of talent that is rarely available in the bottom third of the first round, and particularly with back-to-back picks serving as kind of an insurance policy on Sullinger's health, I think it'd be a mistake not to roll the dice with him if the opportunity is there.
Ainge has some history of taking high-potential guys who, for whatever reason, fall in the draft, with mixed results; Avery Bradley (#19 in 2010) turned out well, while Billy Walker (#47 in 2008) didn't. Those guys fell mostly for performance reasons, though, and health issues are a different ballgame. Still, it's a risk I hope we have the opportunity to take.
However, for whatever reason, I find myself less and less interested with the whole mock draft scene. There are too many x-factors -- too many trades, too many surprise picks, too many red herrings in the days leading up -- for it to be a meaningful exercise. (Not, I should point out, that I have anything against meaningless exercises.) A couple of people have built dream careers on the Internet out of draft prognostication, and good on 'em. It's just not for me.
So I'm not going to sit here and speculate on who the Celtics are going to take at 21 and 22. To do so would require me to try and guess who gets taken 1 through 20, and that's just too hard once you get past the lottery and into the teens. I do, however, have a couple of things on my wish list.
1. Whatever we do, I hope that we don't trade our two first-round picks to move up just a couple of spots. There are reports that Danny Ainge asked Iowa State power forward Royce White to shut down his workouts, which is basically a promise that we'll take White if he's available when it's our turn to pick. I never know whether to believe these things -- there are enough false reports in the days leading up to every draft to seriously discount just about everything you hear.
Regardless of whether it's true, I think it'd be a big mistake to put all of our eggs in one basket by exchanging our two picks for one slightly better pick. The Celtics have serious personnel needs in both the frontcourt and the backcourt, and this draft is loaded with value all the way down through the first round. I'm not talking about stars, but solid players with potential for very productive NBA careers. If another team snags White before we get a chance to pick him, there are plenty of consolation prizes: Andrew Nicholson, the center from St. Bonaventure; Arnett Moultrie, the rebounding machine from Mississippi State; Jeff Taylor, the sweet shooting wing from Vanderbilt who is one of the best defenders in the draft; trust me, the list goes on and on.
There's something to be said for getting the guy you really want, but White -- or any other player we're likely to try to trade up a few spots to get -- isn't the kind of sure thing that's worth two picks. The obvious counterargument is Rajon Rondo, who Phoenix drafted at 21 on our behalf in the 2006 draft. Ainge saw his guy in Rondo and made the move to get him, and it's obviously worked out incredibly well for the Celtics. But the price for Rondo was relatively cheap -- we basically just bought the pick from the Suns. Passing up the chance to draft another guy who could have a similar impact to White (or whoever) is just too large of a price.
I'm not totally against the idea of a trade, but if we do it, it has to be for the right reasons. And the right reasons are getting an established veteran and/or freeing up cap room for free agency, not moving up to take a guy who may or may not pan out.
2. If Jared Sullinger is available when we pick, I hope we take him. Sullinger was a potential top overall pick after his freshman year at Ohio State, but he chose to return to school for his sophomore season -- after which his draft stock dropped, in part due to a somewhat lackluster year, comparatively, and in part because this draft is perceived to be deeper than last year's was (although last year's class turned out to be rather underrated). Even so, he was a projected in the top ten this year ... until team doctors started examining him and raised questions about his back. These concerns go well beyond the back spasms that caused him to miss some games this past season; we're talking long-term durability issues, concerns of the same kind that ruined the careers of, for example, Greg Oden and Brandon Roy. Teams are worried enough about his health that the league's intel suggests he's likely to fall out of the lottery entirely, and the NBA therefore elected not to invite him to sit in the Green Room during the draft.
Sullinger may well go before we pick, and if he does, it's a moot point. Even if he is available, he's an obvious risk. But Sullinger is a good kid, a hard worker, and a smart basketball player. He's not a monster athlete, but he knows how to score around the basket, and he's a good rebounder. He has some range, too. Some people look at him and see a little bit of Kevin Love in him -- though Love's blossoming into a legitimate star isn't the kind of thing we should project for anyone. But Sullinger possess the kind of talent that is rarely available in the bottom third of the first round, and particularly with back-to-back picks serving as kind of an insurance policy on Sullinger's health, I think it'd be a mistake not to roll the dice with him if the opportunity is there.
Ainge has some history of taking high-potential guys who, for whatever reason, fall in the draft, with mixed results; Avery Bradley (#19 in 2010) turned out well, while Billy Walker (#47 in 2008) didn't. Those guys fell mostly for performance reasons, though, and health issues are a different ballgame. Still, it's a risk I hope we have the opportunity to take.
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