Lately, my recap posts seem to be focusing on the intangibles; the story, rather than the Xs and Os. The Celtics' resilience and LeBron James' ability to rise to the occasion will no doubt play a part in determining who wins Saturday night, but there's actual basketball to be played, too. I want to spend a few minutes talking a little bit about some "basketball things" that I've got my mind on heading into Game 7. They're in no real order.
1. Paul Pierce is due for a big game. We showered him with praise after he that dagger in Game 5, so it's fair to say that he was awful in Game 6. I'm inclined to forgive him more for the defensive end (no one was stopping LeBron in that one) than for the offensive end, where he shot 4 for 18, including missed layups and clanged jumpers. The problem is that Pierce really hasn't been very good all series, with just two games of shooting that could even be considered decent. Given the shots he's getting, and missing, I assume that it's his knee, and I'm not bringing this up to criticize him. Rather, I mention it to say that anyone who expects him to come to our rescue with a huge game akin to Cleveland in 2008 is probably going to be disappointed.
2. With that said, Pierce is still a key component to our offense and one of the game's most clutch performers. To that end, we need to figure out a way to keep him on the floor. He's fouled out twice this series (in addition to getting DQ'd from Game 7 against Philly), and he picked up 3 fouls in the first half of Game 6. He's had success guarding James in the past, and he hasn't gotten any favors from the officials, but I think it's clear that the knee is hampering his performance on that end, as well, just as you'd expect it to. Some of this is on Pierce, who needs to play smart and not take bad fouls, but some of it is also on Doc. If you're willing to let Mickael Pietrus and Marquis Daniels and even Brandon Bass check James when Pierce is out of the game, then you have to be willing to put one of those guys on him to protect Pierce when he's in the game. For example, in Game 6, when Pierce came back into the game in the second quarter with two fouls, he went right back on James, picked up his third foul with like six minutes to go, and had to sit the rest of the half. To start the third, Doc put Bass on James, ostensibly to protect Pierce. But by waiting until Pierce was already in serious foul trouble before making a move, Doc kept Pierce off the court for a big chunk of the second quarter. The key is to start protecting him before it affects his playing time.
3. We only saw a possession or two of zone in Game 6, and absent truly exigent circumstances, I hope that means we've seen the last of it in this series. Miami was reasonably effective scoring against the zone in Game 5; what worked is that Boston was changing defenses and disguising what they were running, and that led to confusion and some wasted possessions when we went back to man-to-man. The element of surprise is gone, however, and Miami not only is ready for the zone, they are ready for us to switch it up. That particular trick isn't going to work anymore, and the zone itself isn't effective enough on its own.
4. Rajon Rondo has to be aggressive. He is charged with a nearly impossible task; he's the only Celtic who is able to consistently get easy baskets for himself, and yet he also has to get the other guys going, too. What Rondo must realize is that his offense opens up the floor for everyone else; when he is penetrating and getting into the lane, shots open up for others, whether it's Kevin Garnett on the pick and roll, Garnett and Bass on the pick-and-pop, or Pierce and Ray Allen spotting up along the perimeter. It's fine to run a few plays for Pierce and Allen early to try and get them a few jumpers, but if that isn't working, Rondo needs to shoulder a heavier scoring load himself, quickly. We can't afford to waste half a quarter trying to get the other guys going. If Rondo's attacking, then the rest of the offense should establish itself.
5. We need something from the bench. While a performance like the one we got from Pietrus in Game 5 would be nice, something to that degree isn't even necessary. I expect Rondo to play the full 48 minutes, and I expect that James will, as well. But Garnett won't, and neither will Pierce and Allen. Pietrus, Daniels, and Keyon Dooling must play their usual strong defense while scoring at least enough to keep us in striking distance.
6. I don't think that home court advantage will affect the players; we've played our two best games of the series in Miami's barn. I do worry that the home crowd will affect the refs. Officiating played a huge role in Boston's Game 2 loss. While I don't know who is assigned to Game 7, I do know that I don't want to see Eddie Malloy or Billy Kennedy, two officials who have shown anti-Boston proclivities and who seem overmatched by big games. And regardless of who is officiating, the players need to put any bad calls behind them quickly.
7. Finally, Boston must be resilient. Miami is a strong defensive team with a couple remarkably talented offensive players. It's nearly impossible to play a game against the Heat without them going on a couple of six- or eight-point runs. The key will be preventing them from turning those spurts into 12- and 14-point surges. Boston can win this game if they are down a few points entering the fourth quarter, but if they're down double-digits after the third, the task may be too hard. The Celtics were resilient in Game 5, and it paid off; Boston stayed in it when things weren't going right in the first half, then made their run when the shots started falling in the third quarter. They were resilient in Game 6, too; the difference is that we couldn't get anything to fall even as we continued to hang around. As long as we stay resilient, then we'll have a great shot at this. Fortunately, staying resilient is one of the things we do best.
Game 7 starts at 8:30 Eastern on ESPN. Let's do this!
Showing posts with label Keyon Dooling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Keyon Dooling. Show all posts
Friday, June 8, 2012
Saturday, June 2, 2012
Boston 101, Miami 91
[recap] [box score]
Going to do just a few quick points, since I didn't get a chance to post after the game last night:
1. Huge contribution in this one from Marquis Daniels, who basically has been out of the rotation ever since we got Mickael Pietrus and Avery Bradley stepped up. Daniels was part of the second unit that took control of this game at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second, and with Brandon Bass in foul trouble, was on the court for much of the stretch when Boston's lead ballooned as high as 24 in the third quarter. Daniels biggest contribution was probably defensively; LeBron James scored his share of points when Daniels was checking him, but those points did not come easily. Offensively, Daniels doesn't have the range Pietrus supposedly has, but his knack of finding the open spot moving off the ball -- something sorely lacking ever since Bradley was shut down -- was crucial to the Celtics' offensive success. I expect we'll see more of him.
2. Keyon Dooling's ball pressure off the bench during that same first half stretch was crucial. Miami didn't score for like seven minutes while Boston ripped off a 15-0 run, and Dooling's perimeter defense should get a lot of credit for taking the Heat out of an offensive rhythm that had put up 28 points in the first 9 and a half minutes.
3. It's rare that the bench -- particularly one as weak as Boston's -- is the difference in a playoff game, but these are unusual circumstances. With Chris Bosh out, Miami's been going small, and that means Brandon Bass has to chase guys out on the perimeter, which got him into foul trouble. Daniels and Pietrus replaced him, and in effect became "starters." I expect we'll see more of Daniels moving forward.
4. Dooling and Daniels scored some points, but their defense was really the big key. Boston had played fairly terribly on defense in the early minutes, and Dooling's tenacity, especially, changed the defensive tone of the game.
5. Boston went to Kevin Garnett early and often, which was key. And the officials finally recognized that Miami has been holding and grabbing KG as he tries to get position. If that trend continues, KG will be close to unstoppable.
6. Rajon Rondo's numbers aren't nearly as gaudy as they were in Game 2, but he made a number of momentum-shifting plays. I thought his layup in transition in the closing minutes was huge. The Heat had shifted to a super-small lineup with James at the 5, which not only spread the Celtics thin on defense, but also induced them into walking the ball up and trying to exploit size mismatches in the post -- a strategy which, surprise, didn't really work.
7. For the most part, Boston turned James and Dwyane Wade into jump shooters. James was red-hot to start, but even as he was draining jumper after jumper, I was thinking that it wasn't necessarily a bad thing -- that it might induce the Heat to fall in love with the long game and not take advantage of their ability to penetrate and the favorable treatment they get from the officials. We've had success doing this in the past, and it will be crucial to continue to do so moving forward.
8. One thing that needs to be fixed is Boston's transition defense. Miami burned us for easy layups several times in the first quarter, even after Boston hoops, and it's been a problem all series. It's inexcusable for a team that sends as few people to the offensive glass as Boston does. One problem is that as Rondo has become more of a scoring threat, the rest of the team hasn't adjusted to need to balance the floor, but really, just making a concerted effort to not let someone run by you and way downcourt is probably the only fix necessary.
9. Game 4 is Sunday, same bad time, same bad place. Game 3 means nothing if we don't win the next one.
Going to do just a few quick points, since I didn't get a chance to post after the game last night:
1. Huge contribution in this one from Marquis Daniels, who basically has been out of the rotation ever since we got Mickael Pietrus and Avery Bradley stepped up. Daniels was part of the second unit that took control of this game at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second, and with Brandon Bass in foul trouble, was on the court for much of the stretch when Boston's lead ballooned as high as 24 in the third quarter. Daniels biggest contribution was probably defensively; LeBron James scored his share of points when Daniels was checking him, but those points did not come easily. Offensively, Daniels doesn't have the range Pietrus supposedly has, but his knack of finding the open spot moving off the ball -- something sorely lacking ever since Bradley was shut down -- was crucial to the Celtics' offensive success. I expect we'll see more of him.
2. Keyon Dooling's ball pressure off the bench during that same first half stretch was crucial. Miami didn't score for like seven minutes while Boston ripped off a 15-0 run, and Dooling's perimeter defense should get a lot of credit for taking the Heat out of an offensive rhythm that had put up 28 points in the first 9 and a half minutes.
3. It's rare that the bench -- particularly one as weak as Boston's -- is the difference in a playoff game, but these are unusual circumstances. With Chris Bosh out, Miami's been going small, and that means Brandon Bass has to chase guys out on the perimeter, which got him into foul trouble. Daniels and Pietrus replaced him, and in effect became "starters." I expect we'll see more of Daniels moving forward.
4. Dooling and Daniels scored some points, but their defense was really the big key. Boston had played fairly terribly on defense in the early minutes, and Dooling's tenacity, especially, changed the defensive tone of the game.
5. Boston went to Kevin Garnett early and often, which was key. And the officials finally recognized that Miami has been holding and grabbing KG as he tries to get position. If that trend continues, KG will be close to unstoppable.
6. Rajon Rondo's numbers aren't nearly as gaudy as they were in Game 2, but he made a number of momentum-shifting plays. I thought his layup in transition in the closing minutes was huge. The Heat had shifted to a super-small lineup with James at the 5, which not only spread the Celtics thin on defense, but also induced them into walking the ball up and trying to exploit size mismatches in the post -- a strategy which, surprise, didn't really work.
7. For the most part, Boston turned James and Dwyane Wade into jump shooters. James was red-hot to start, but even as he was draining jumper after jumper, I was thinking that it wasn't necessarily a bad thing -- that it might induce the Heat to fall in love with the long game and not take advantage of their ability to penetrate and the favorable treatment they get from the officials. We've had success doing this in the past, and it will be crucial to continue to do so moving forward.
8. One thing that needs to be fixed is Boston's transition defense. Miami burned us for easy layups several times in the first quarter, even after Boston hoops, and it's been a problem all series. It's inexcusable for a team that sends as few people to the offensive glass as Boston does. One problem is that as Rondo has become more of a scoring threat, the rest of the team hasn't adjusted to need to balance the floor, but really, just making a concerted effort to not let someone run by you and way downcourt is probably the only fix necessary.
9. Game 4 is Sunday, same bad time, same bad place. Game 3 means nothing if we don't win the next one.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Atlanta 97, Boston 92
[recap] [box score]
Remember when I said that with Rajon R-ndo, Ray Allen, and Mickael Pietrus out, Doc Rivers had no choice but to play Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett Friday night against the Hawks? Yeah, I was wrong about that. Doc elected to sit the veterans and take on Atlanta with the following active roster:
Starters: Avery Bradley, Keyon Dooling, Sasha Pavlovic, Brandon Bass, Greg Stiemsma
Bench: Marquis Daniels, Ryan Hollis, E'Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson
Hey, it's not really any worse than the roster Toronto beat us with a few weeks ago.
Anyway, the fun thing is that we nearly pulled it off. The Celtics JV team hung around most of the game, never staying down by double-digits for very long, then surged to within one point in the fourth quarter. Boston had three, maybe four possessions to take the lead, too, but couldn't convert. Atlanta got some timely jumpers from Willie Green to hold us off, and then Joe Johnson applied the kill strike, an and-one off of a drive past Daniels with under two minutes to go that put the Hawks up four. He added two free throws on the next possession after Boston couldn't answer, and after that, the Cs just couldn't quite catch up.
As surprising as the outcome was given the players involved, I actually had a hunch it might be a close game when I heard the ESPN broadcast team quote Josh Smith as saying that the Hawks wanted to blow the Celtics out. Smith should get a lot of credit for getting his act together somewhat and really trying to become a leader, but he's still a headcase, and I knew that putting that kind of pressure on himself was going to have negative consequences. Indeed, though Smith added three blocks and three steals to 19 points and 12 rebounds, he committed seven turnovers, many of which were on bizarre passes that stunk of trying to do too much. And while he's largely moved inside the three-point line this year, he still can't seem to quit the long jumpers that have prevented him from becoming a truly elite weapon.
The funny thing is that it's not like Boston played out of its mind, either. Bradley was sensational; I'd figured that his recent effectiveness was due in part to getting good looks by virtue of the defense concentrating mostly on his teammates, but he was option 1 Friday night and the Hawks knew it, and he still managed a career-high 28 points on 12-for-22 from the field. Daniels, Dooling, and Hollins were better than they have been in quite a long time, but Bass really struggled with Smith's length on his way to 4-for-15, Stiemsma only played 9:35 before sitting due to the plantar fascitis that has prevented him from practicing for much of the second half of the season, and JJJ badly missed a couple of wide-open jumpers on those possessions where we could have taken the lead. (To be fair, he hasn't gotten significant playing time in quite a while.) We really were close to winning this game.
Close, of course, only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. The announcers were trying to say that the win would be psychologically damaging to Atlanta because they had to gut it out against Boston's bomb squad, but, with the possible exception of Smith, I don't think NBA players think that way. The Hawks must have relaxed when they learned that all those guys for Boston would be out; they got the win, so who cares? Next game.
One last thing: I didn't think to mention this in Thursday's post because I was convinced that Pierce and Garnett would play due to sheer necessity, but Boston has three days off between now and and its next game. That's a lot of time to rest. I don't know how much Pierce and KG are hurting, and we had played 11 of the 15 previous nights, short-handed for many of them. So I'm going to give Doc the benefit of the doubt, particularly because we'd be playing for home-court in the first round only. The only way we'll feel the pain of this loss is if we end up losing Game 7 in Atlanta in the first round. But it's worth mentioning. As is this.
Have a good weekend, all. Tuesday night against the Heat on TNT at 8 Eastern, though who knows who will suit up.
Remember when I said that with Rajon R-ndo, Ray Allen, and Mickael Pietrus out, Doc Rivers had no choice but to play Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett Friday night against the Hawks? Yeah, I was wrong about that. Doc elected to sit the veterans and take on Atlanta with the following active roster:
Starters: Avery Bradley, Keyon Dooling, Sasha Pavlovic, Brandon Bass, Greg Stiemsma
Bench: Marquis Daniels, Ryan Hollis, E'Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson
Hey, it's not really any worse than the roster Toronto beat us with a few weeks ago.
Anyway, the fun thing is that we nearly pulled it off. The Celtics JV team hung around most of the game, never staying down by double-digits for very long, then surged to within one point in the fourth quarter. Boston had three, maybe four possessions to take the lead, too, but couldn't convert. Atlanta got some timely jumpers from Willie Green to hold us off, and then Joe Johnson applied the kill strike, an and-one off of a drive past Daniels with under two minutes to go that put the Hawks up four. He added two free throws on the next possession after Boston couldn't answer, and after that, the Cs just couldn't quite catch up.
As surprising as the outcome was given the players involved, I actually had a hunch it might be a close game when I heard the ESPN broadcast team quote Josh Smith as saying that the Hawks wanted to blow the Celtics out. Smith should get a lot of credit for getting his act together somewhat and really trying to become a leader, but he's still a headcase, and I knew that putting that kind of pressure on himself was going to have negative consequences. Indeed, though Smith added three blocks and three steals to 19 points and 12 rebounds, he committed seven turnovers, many of which were on bizarre passes that stunk of trying to do too much. And while he's largely moved inside the three-point line this year, he still can't seem to quit the long jumpers that have prevented him from becoming a truly elite weapon.
The funny thing is that it's not like Boston played out of its mind, either. Bradley was sensational; I'd figured that his recent effectiveness was due in part to getting good looks by virtue of the defense concentrating mostly on his teammates, but he was option 1 Friday night and the Hawks knew it, and he still managed a career-high 28 points on 12-for-22 from the field. Daniels, Dooling, and Hollins were better than they have been in quite a long time, but Bass really struggled with Smith's length on his way to 4-for-15, Stiemsma only played 9:35 before sitting due to the plantar fascitis that has prevented him from practicing for much of the second half of the season, and JJJ badly missed a couple of wide-open jumpers on those possessions where we could have taken the lead. (To be fair, he hasn't gotten significant playing time in quite a while.) We really were close to winning this game.
Close, of course, only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. The announcers were trying to say that the win would be psychologically damaging to Atlanta because they had to gut it out against Boston's bomb squad, but, with the possible exception of Smith, I don't think NBA players think that way. The Hawks must have relaxed when they learned that all those guys for Boston would be out; they got the win, so who cares? Next game.
One last thing: I didn't think to mention this in Thursday's post because I was convinced that Pierce and Garnett would play due to sheer necessity, but Boston has three days off between now and and its next game. That's a lot of time to rest. I don't know how much Pierce and KG are hurting, and we had played 11 of the 15 previous nights, short-handed for many of them. So I'm going to give Doc the benefit of the doubt, particularly because we'd be playing for home-court in the first round only. The only way we'll feel the pain of this loss is if we end up losing Game 7 in Atlanta in the first round. But it's worth mentioning. As is this.
Have a good weekend, all. Tuesday night against the Heat on TNT at 8 Eastern, though who knows who will suit up.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Phoenix 79, Boston 71
[recap] [box score]
You might be tempted to look at the box score of this game, note the absence of Rajon R-ndo's name, and assume that was the reason the Celtics managed just 71 points while just shooting just 40 percent from the floor. And it's probably true that R-ndo, who missed the game with the sprained wrist he suffered Wednesday night against Toronto, would have made a big enough difference to swing the outcome of this game from a Boston loss to a Boston win; he's much too quick for Steve Nash, and indeed registered his career high of 32 points in a matchup with Nash in the 2008-09 season, well before he became a consistent scoring threat.
Hell, even R-ndo's backup, Keyon Dooling, might have made the difference. It wouldn't have taken much: The Suns didn't exactly scorch the net themselves, and they turned the ball over 21 times. But Dooling sat this one out, too, sidelined for the fifth straight game with a sore knee.
What's really frustrating, though, is that Boston could have -- should have -- won this game, even without their first- or second-string point guard. It came down, as it has in each of the team's last seven losses, to the most basic fundamental in the game of basketball: making open shots.
At around 45 percent on the season, the Celtics are in the middle of the NBA pack when it comes to shooting. And yet, I'd bet that if you filtered the data for open, mid-range jumpers, Boston would rank at or near the bottom of the league. (There's a good chance such data is available, but I don't know where to get it.)
You really ought to be able to take an open jumper for granted in the NBA. I'd say that almost every team, at any given time, has at least three guys on the floor who you'd feel reasonably confident in taking a wide-open 15- or 17-footer. Right now, Boston has two guys on its entire roster who I feel confident seeing take those shots: The great Ray Allen, who hasn't exactly lit it up recently, and Brandon Bass, our backup power forward.
That's not good, and it gets worse, because so much of Boston's offense is predicated on that mid-range jumper. (Again, I'm sure the data to prove or disprove this claim is out there.) Sure, we'll run Allen off of screens to try and spring him for a three, and R-ndo will take matters into his own hands and penetrate on occasion, but there's no post-up game to speak of, and so many of R-ndo's forays into the lane end in a kick-out to a teammate whose defender has sloughed off to help.
Statistically speaking, an offense based around mid-range jump shots is not a good one: you're better off taking a contested three than a contested two, for example, because the added difficulty of making the longer shot is outweighed by the extra point when the shot is made. Boston has succeeded in recent years in part because it has some excellent mid-range shooters, in part because the shots they got were more open than is typical, and in part because their defense was so good that they didn't need to be outstanding offensively.
We're seeing now that the offense looks like when the shots aren't falling, and it isn't pretty. And with R-ndo on the sideline and Paul Pierce still not himself, the usual alternative sources of offense aren't available. There's little we can do at this point but hope that the shots start to get down.
On to some Phoenix-game-specific stuff:
* After Marcin Gortat went nuts with a 14-point first quarter, mostly off of pick-and-roll with Nash, the Celtics defense was pretty good the rest of the way. They forced something like ten turnovers in the third quarter alone, and by and large shut down Nash, both his scoring and his assists. There were a couple crucial errors in the fourth quarter by the new guys -- a missed rotation by Mickael Pietrus; Bass leaving Channing Frye to help Kevin Garnett with Gortat in the post -- but the Celtics were more than adequate on that end to win.
* Boston trailed 46-35 at halftime, then opened the second half by scoring 18 of the first 22 points, the team's lone offensive outburst of the game. From there, however, the offense sputtered, as the Suns quickly went on a 12-0 run to re-seize control. The Celtics, maddeningly, went away from the more fluid offensive sets that had been working, in favor of a series of clock-draining post-ups. When Pierce is healthy, these plays are annoying, but tolerable. When he's not, or when the guy posting up is Marquis Daniels, it's just stupid. Stick with what's working.
* Bradley probably had the best game of any Celtic. He had ten points on 5-of-9 from the field, even burying a couple of the open mid-range jumpers that have eluded him in his career (and his teammates this season). He also had three steals, including picking Nash clean as the veteran point guard dribble near midcourt. Only one assist, but only one turnover, too. It was his finest outing of the year.
* In contrast, Bradley's backup for this game, E'Twaun Moore, was terrible. He shot 1-for-6, including a bad miss on a wide-open three-pointer (supposedly his specialty), and he committed three turnovers in 12 minutes of action. Moore's a rookie, and the way he's playing reminds me a lot of a college freshman in his first couple weeks of game action. As you move up in levels, the game moves faster, and for many, it takes some time to adjust, for the game to slow down, as some are fond of saying. You don't see it as much in NBA rookies as you see it in college freshman, but it happens, and its happening with Moore. His lone bright moment came in the third quarter when, with the shot clock running down, he find himself in an isolation with Nash. Moore calmly backed Nash down, then swished a sweet turnaround.
* It's funny, because Doc Rivers has quite notably been terrible at developing rookies over the last several years by not giving them playing time. His hand is forced somewhat with Moore, but Doc seems willing to give Moore run even without the exigent circumstances of injuries and a crazy schedule. Whatever Doc has seen in Moore on the practice court hasn't translated to games.
You might be tempted to look at the box score of this game, note the absence of Rajon R-ndo's name, and assume that was the reason the Celtics managed just 71 points while just shooting just 40 percent from the floor. And it's probably true that R-ndo, who missed the game with the sprained wrist he suffered Wednesday night against Toronto, would have made a big enough difference to swing the outcome of this game from a Boston loss to a Boston win; he's much too quick for Steve Nash, and indeed registered his career high of 32 points in a matchup with Nash in the 2008-09 season, well before he became a consistent scoring threat.
Hell, even R-ndo's backup, Keyon Dooling, might have made the difference. It wouldn't have taken much: The Suns didn't exactly scorch the net themselves, and they turned the ball over 21 times. But Dooling sat this one out, too, sidelined for the fifth straight game with a sore knee.
What's really frustrating, though, is that Boston could have -- should have -- won this game, even without their first- or second-string point guard. It came down, as it has in each of the team's last seven losses, to the most basic fundamental in the game of basketball: making open shots.
At around 45 percent on the season, the Celtics are in the middle of the NBA pack when it comes to shooting. And yet, I'd bet that if you filtered the data for open, mid-range jumpers, Boston would rank at or near the bottom of the league. (There's a good chance such data is available, but I don't know where to get it.)
You really ought to be able to take an open jumper for granted in the NBA. I'd say that almost every team, at any given time, has at least three guys on the floor who you'd feel reasonably confident in taking a wide-open 15- or 17-footer. Right now, Boston has two guys on its entire roster who I feel confident seeing take those shots: The great Ray Allen, who hasn't exactly lit it up recently, and Brandon Bass, our backup power forward.
That's not good, and it gets worse, because so much of Boston's offense is predicated on that mid-range jumper. (Again, I'm sure the data to prove or disprove this claim is out there.) Sure, we'll run Allen off of screens to try and spring him for a three, and R-ndo will take matters into his own hands and penetrate on occasion, but there's no post-up game to speak of, and so many of R-ndo's forays into the lane end in a kick-out to a teammate whose defender has sloughed off to help.
Statistically speaking, an offense based around mid-range jump shots is not a good one: you're better off taking a contested three than a contested two, for example, because the added difficulty of making the longer shot is outweighed by the extra point when the shot is made. Boston has succeeded in recent years in part because it has some excellent mid-range shooters, in part because the shots they got were more open than is typical, and in part because their defense was so good that they didn't need to be outstanding offensively.
We're seeing now that the offense looks like when the shots aren't falling, and it isn't pretty. And with R-ndo on the sideline and Paul Pierce still not himself, the usual alternative sources of offense aren't available. There's little we can do at this point but hope that the shots start to get down.
On to some Phoenix-game-specific stuff:
* After Marcin Gortat went nuts with a 14-point first quarter, mostly off of pick-and-roll with Nash, the Celtics defense was pretty good the rest of the way. They forced something like ten turnovers in the third quarter alone, and by and large shut down Nash, both his scoring and his assists. There were a couple crucial errors in the fourth quarter by the new guys -- a missed rotation by Mickael Pietrus; Bass leaving Channing Frye to help Kevin Garnett with Gortat in the post -- but the Celtics were more than adequate on that end to win.
* Boston trailed 46-35 at halftime, then opened the second half by scoring 18 of the first 22 points, the team's lone offensive outburst of the game. From there, however, the offense sputtered, as the Suns quickly went on a 12-0 run to re-seize control. The Celtics, maddeningly, went away from the more fluid offensive sets that had been working, in favor of a series of clock-draining post-ups. When Pierce is healthy, these plays are annoying, but tolerable. When he's not, or when the guy posting up is Marquis Daniels, it's just stupid. Stick with what's working.
* Bradley probably had the best game of any Celtic. He had ten points on 5-of-9 from the field, even burying a couple of the open mid-range jumpers that have eluded him in his career (and his teammates this season). He also had three steals, including picking Nash clean as the veteran point guard dribble near midcourt. Only one assist, but only one turnover, too. It was his finest outing of the year.
* In contrast, Bradley's backup for this game, E'Twaun Moore, was terrible. He shot 1-for-6, including a bad miss on a wide-open three-pointer (supposedly his specialty), and he committed three turnovers in 12 minutes of action. Moore's a rookie, and the way he's playing reminds me a lot of a college freshman in his first couple weeks of game action. As you move up in levels, the game moves faster, and for many, it takes some time to adjust, for the game to slow down, as some are fond of saying. You don't see it as much in NBA rookies as you see it in college freshman, but it happens, and its happening with Moore. His lone bright moment came in the third quarter when, with the shot clock running down, he find himself in an isolation with Nash. Moore calmly backed Nash down, then swished a sweet turnaround.
* It's funny, because Doc Rivers has quite notably been terrible at developing rookies over the last several years by not giving them playing time. His hand is forced somewhat with Moore, but Doc seems willing to give Moore run even without the exigent circumstances of injuries and a crazy schedule. Whatever Doc has seen in Moore on the practice court hasn't translated to games.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Celtics Drop Two to Start Season
I've been in DC since last week, spending time with friends and family over the holidays. I've been too busy to blog, but I haven't been too busy to catch Boston in their season-opening games -- a 106-104 loss in New York on Christmas Day, and a 115-107 defeat in Miami Tuesday night.
In both games, Boston started out very slowly, digging a double-digit hole for themselves in the first half. In both games they clawed back to have a realistic shot at winning, taking the lead into the fourth quarter against the Knicks and getting to within three of the Heat late in the fourth.
It's a disappointing start to the season, and yet we should take it with a grain of salt -- the same grain of salt, I should point out, that would accompany our gloating over a 2-0 start, had the ball bounced that way.
The first way to put these losses in perspective is to remember that Paul Pierce hasn't seen the floor yet due to a sore heel. Boston badly missed his offense in a stagnant fourth quarter against the Knicks, and his presence on the defensive end of the floor could have meant a Boston win in either game (or perhaps in both).
The second is to remember that we just played the Knicks and the Heat, two of the better teams in the league. Miami is the odds-on favorite to win the title this year and are in great form (they absolutely took apart Dallas in a Finals rematch on Christmas Day) and New York just might be the third-best team in the East. Even if the Knicks aren't quite as good as some think they are, it's indisputable that Boston's first two opponents are two of the tougher teams in the league to guard. So the fact that we've surrendered 110.5 points per game -- normally a very alarming number -- is tempered by the fact that we've done so against two of the league's best offensive outfits (teams that play at a fast pace, to boot). If New Orleans lights us up Wednesday night, then I'll start to worry about the D.
Honestly, we're not that far from 2-0. We didn't deserve to win either game, really, not with the way we played in the first half, but we hung around, like we always seem to. Carmelo Anthony got hot in the fourth quarter in New York and a rookie named Norris Cole beat our zone (!) in the fourth quarter in Miami -- if not for those guys, we really could have opened with two wins. Two road wins, without the Captain.
That's probably stretching it. My point is, I'm not too concerned. The season ahead is lockout-shortened, but it's still long. Losing on the road to the Knicks and Heat was likely to happen.
Here's what I do hate: Ray Allen has played 38 and 40 minutes, respectively, in the first two games. Allen is, as always, in outstanding physical condition, but that's just too many minutes. Way too many. I'm going to give Doc a little bit of a pass because of the bodies he's missing (Pierce and the newly-signed Mickael Pietrus play the wing), but given Doc's tendencies, I'm expecting that I'll be complaining about the minutes situation all year. Doc did do a nice job limiting Kevin Garnett to 33 minutes Tuesday after KG played 37 in the opener, and this despite the fact that Chris Wilcox sat the whole second half with some sort of (hopefully minor) injury. But Rajon R-ndo can't play 40-plus minutes a game, either, if we're going to make a deep playoff run after what will be a very grueling season.
Save for one absolutely critical turnover in the waning moments against Miami, by the way, R-ndo has been almost flawless. He followed up a 31/5/13 performance against New York with a 22/8/12. Even better: He hit nine of 12 free throws against New York and seven of 11 against Miami. Seventy percent from the line from your point guard isn't normally something to get excited about, but normally your point guard didn't shoot under 60 percent from the stripe last season. What's more, I think this improvement could be permanent; he's slowed his pace at the line way down and everything about the shot looks smoother. A somewhat reliable free throw stroke should give him the confidence to go to the bucket more this year, which we're going to need.
Another bright spot, offensively, has been the bench. Brandon Bass had 20 points and 11 rebounds against the Knicks, while Keyon Dooling did the heavy lifting with 18 off the bench against the Heat. I'm more confident in Bass' ability to contribute regularly than Dooling's; Dooling will rarely shoot as well as he did Tuesday night, and the confidence these strong evenings brings may end up doing more harm than good if it convinces him to play outside his rather modest offensive abilities. Put another way, I'm going to need to see several more games of solid shooting from Dooling before I get comfortable watching him cock the ball way back -- behind his shoulder, to the side of his head -- truly one of the more bizarre shooting strokes in the NBA.
A lot to improve on, but no need to panic just yet.
In both games, Boston started out very slowly, digging a double-digit hole for themselves in the first half. In both games they clawed back to have a realistic shot at winning, taking the lead into the fourth quarter against the Knicks and getting to within three of the Heat late in the fourth.
It's a disappointing start to the season, and yet we should take it with a grain of salt -- the same grain of salt, I should point out, that would accompany our gloating over a 2-0 start, had the ball bounced that way.
The first way to put these losses in perspective is to remember that Paul Pierce hasn't seen the floor yet due to a sore heel. Boston badly missed his offense in a stagnant fourth quarter against the Knicks, and his presence on the defensive end of the floor could have meant a Boston win in either game (or perhaps in both).
The second is to remember that we just played the Knicks and the Heat, two of the better teams in the league. Miami is the odds-on favorite to win the title this year and are in great form (they absolutely took apart Dallas in a Finals rematch on Christmas Day) and New York just might be the third-best team in the East. Even if the Knicks aren't quite as good as some think they are, it's indisputable that Boston's first two opponents are two of the tougher teams in the league to guard. So the fact that we've surrendered 110.5 points per game -- normally a very alarming number -- is tempered by the fact that we've done so against two of the league's best offensive outfits (teams that play at a fast pace, to boot). If New Orleans lights us up Wednesday night, then I'll start to worry about the D.
Honestly, we're not that far from 2-0. We didn't deserve to win either game, really, not with the way we played in the first half, but we hung around, like we always seem to. Carmelo Anthony got hot in the fourth quarter in New York and a rookie named Norris Cole beat our zone (!) in the fourth quarter in Miami -- if not for those guys, we really could have opened with two wins. Two road wins, without the Captain.
That's probably stretching it. My point is, I'm not too concerned. The season ahead is lockout-shortened, but it's still long. Losing on the road to the Knicks and Heat was likely to happen.
Here's what I do hate: Ray Allen has played 38 and 40 minutes, respectively, in the first two games. Allen is, as always, in outstanding physical condition, but that's just too many minutes. Way too many. I'm going to give Doc a little bit of a pass because of the bodies he's missing (Pierce and the newly-signed Mickael Pietrus play the wing), but given Doc's tendencies, I'm expecting that I'll be complaining about the minutes situation all year. Doc did do a nice job limiting Kevin Garnett to 33 minutes Tuesday after KG played 37 in the opener, and this despite the fact that Chris Wilcox sat the whole second half with some sort of (hopefully minor) injury. But Rajon R-ndo can't play 40-plus minutes a game, either, if we're going to make a deep playoff run after what will be a very grueling season.
Save for one absolutely critical turnover in the waning moments against Miami, by the way, R-ndo has been almost flawless. He followed up a 31/5/13 performance against New York with a 22/8/12. Even better: He hit nine of 12 free throws against New York and seven of 11 against Miami. Seventy percent from the line from your point guard isn't normally something to get excited about, but normally your point guard didn't shoot under 60 percent from the stripe last season. What's more, I think this improvement could be permanent; he's slowed his pace at the line way down and everything about the shot looks smoother. A somewhat reliable free throw stroke should give him the confidence to go to the bucket more this year, which we're going to need.
Another bright spot, offensively, has been the bench. Brandon Bass had 20 points and 11 rebounds against the Knicks, while Keyon Dooling did the heavy lifting with 18 off the bench against the Heat. I'm more confident in Bass' ability to contribute regularly than Dooling's; Dooling will rarely shoot as well as he did Tuesday night, and the confidence these strong evenings brings may end up doing more harm than good if it convinces him to play outside his rather modest offensive abilities. Put another way, I'm going to need to see several more games of solid shooting from Dooling before I get comfortable watching him cock the ball way back -- behind his shoulder, to the side of his head -- truly one of the more bizarre shooting strokes in the NBA.
A lot to improve on, but no need to panic just yet.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Catching Up On The Preseason Moves
I generally don't like to post about rumored moves, because I can't keep up with the news and you're better off getting your information somewhere else. This year, especially, has been difficult to follow, with the whole offseason and preseason condensed into like three weeks. I think the below information is accurate, but I'm seeing all sorts of conflicting reports and can't be sure.
Let me start with the moves we didn't make:
We didn't trade for Chris Paul. I laid out how I felt about trading Rajon Rondo for Paul in this post, but it really turned out to be a moot point: If what the Lakers and Clippers were willing to give up wasn't enough to satisfy David Stern, then no package the Celtics put together would have. Rondo reportedly has been upbeat at camp thus far, so it appears we've avoided the whole mess and kept everyone reasonably happy.
We didn't trade for David West. Before he signed with the Pacers, we were rumored to be sending Jermaine O'Neal and an unnamed player to the Hornets in a sign-and-trade for West. It ultimately fell through, and I know a few people are a little bummed out that it did. I'm glad we couldn't get it to work, though. I've always liked West, but he's 31 and had ACL surgery in April, and his preferred mid-range game doesn't make him a good fit alongside Kevin Garnett. That meant that at best, we would have been getting a sixth-starter type who poses some lineup challenges for Doc. At worst, we'd have been getting a veteran who needed more than eight months to recover from a knee injury and was more or less useless in perhaps our last push for a championship. Not the kind of guy you want to throw $20 million at, especially at the expense of the only decent center on our roster, as unreliable as his health may be.
We didn't sign Delonte West. This is the one that bugs me a little bit. A wrist injury derailed his return to Boston last season, but the guy is a proven combo guard who can help at both ends of the floor. I don't exactly know what went down, but I'm guessing Delonte wanted more money or more years than we were willing to give him. I'll be interested to see, when he does sign (the Lakers are a possibility, by the way), how much it's for, because I think we're going to regret not ponying up for him.
Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Jermaine O'Neal were under contract and are back, as is Avery Bradley. We also signed our two draft picks, JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore. Here's how we've filled out the rest of the roster:
We traded Glen Davis to Orlando for Brandon Bass. I like this move. Baby is a likable guy and a serviceable player, but his love affair with his inconsistent jumper was infuriating. In Bass, the Celtics get a similar player (Bass loves the mid-range game, too), but one who shoots a bit better and can score at the rim -- where Baby would get his shot blocked inside because he lacked the athleticism to get off the ground and explode through defenders, Bass should be able to finish those plays. Bass is also a more consistent offensive rebounder than Davis, and better on the defensive glass, as well. If I have one reservation about this trade, it's that Bass was highly-coveted by the Magic, who signed him to a four-year, $18 million contract in 2009, then almost immediately soured on him. He averaged just 13 minutes per game in his first year in Orlando, averaging twice that last year when the Magic shook up their team with various trades. Magic coach Stan Van Gundy is a defense-oriented guy, and so it's hard for me to imagine that he'd sign off on this swap if unless he thought he was getting an upgrade on that end of the floor. The defensive metrics seem to point to Bass being a downgrade from Davis, whose major contribution on defense was taking charges in help defense situations. So I guess we'll see how Bass holds up on D, though a good scheme can do a lot to hide deficiencies in that area.
We signed Jeff Green to a one-year deal. Jeff Clark over at Celtics Blog has some good insight as to what this specific contract means for Boston's financial future (though I don't know where he gets the $9 million figure -- I haven't seen it confirmed anywhere), but here's what it means to me: Danny blew up the core of the 2008 title team, the team with the best record in the East at the time, for a guy who is going to be an unrestricted free agent after this season. I know I shouldn't live in the past and that you shouldn't throw good money after bad, but it just doesn't make sense to me. What could Danny have seen during Green's three-month tenure with Boston last season that made him second-guess his opinion? Don't get me wrong; I'm not a huge fan of Green's. But it's unreasonable to expect a guy to come to Doc River's Celtics in the middle of the season and expect him to integrate in right away. It hasn't happened at all in the past four seasons. Either you believe in the guy or you don't. To me, this contract is just another sign of how bad the Perk trade was, even if the contract is actually fine for the Celtics.
We signed Chris Wilcox, Marquis Daniels, Sasha Pavlovic, Keyon Dooling, and Greg Stiemsma. Along with Bass and Green, this is the crew that's going to make up the second unit. Wilcox is a journeyman center who is capable of decent numbers when he's healthy, but his 57 games with Detroit last year were the most he's played in a season since 2007-08. In his prime, he was putting up like a 13/7, but it's unlikely he's capable of that now. Daniels was finding his rhythm as a Celtic last year before a spine injury in early February ended his season and led to a trade to Sacramento. Especially with Delonte gone, it'll be good to have him back to spell Ray Allen. Pavlovic signed at the trade deadline last year to fill one of the roster spots left open by Daniels' move to the Kings. He played 17 games for the Celtics last year, and through the first 16, he made exactly four shots. In the 17th, the regular season finale against the Knicks, with all of Boston's starters resting, he came off the bench to make seven of ten shots (including four of five threes). I wouldn't expect him to play a lot of minutes, but he's the best shooter on the bench. Dooling is another journeyman, a point guard who excels on the defensive end but shoots too much, given how bad he is at it. His career three-point percentage is decent (35 percent), but his overall shooting percentage has been below 40 in each of the last two seasons. He's also the one new guy I know I'm going to have trouble rooting for, and that's especially true since we apparently chose him over Delonte. Stiemsma is a big body who was the D League defensive player of the year last season. I saw him on the USA team that won a bronze medal at the Pan-Am Games in October, and he did little to stand out.
Let me start with the moves we didn't make:
We didn't trade for Chris Paul. I laid out how I felt about trading Rajon Rondo for Paul in this post, but it really turned out to be a moot point: If what the Lakers and Clippers were willing to give up wasn't enough to satisfy David Stern, then no package the Celtics put together would have. Rondo reportedly has been upbeat at camp thus far, so it appears we've avoided the whole mess and kept everyone reasonably happy.
We didn't trade for David West. Before he signed with the Pacers, we were rumored to be sending Jermaine O'Neal and an unnamed player to the Hornets in a sign-and-trade for West. It ultimately fell through, and I know a few people are a little bummed out that it did. I'm glad we couldn't get it to work, though. I've always liked West, but he's 31 and had ACL surgery in April, and his preferred mid-range game doesn't make him a good fit alongside Kevin Garnett. That meant that at best, we would have been getting a sixth-starter type who poses some lineup challenges for Doc. At worst, we'd have been getting a veteran who needed more than eight months to recover from a knee injury and was more or less useless in perhaps our last push for a championship. Not the kind of guy you want to throw $20 million at, especially at the expense of the only decent center on our roster, as unreliable as his health may be.
We didn't sign Delonte West. This is the one that bugs me a little bit. A wrist injury derailed his return to Boston last season, but the guy is a proven combo guard who can help at both ends of the floor. I don't exactly know what went down, but I'm guessing Delonte wanted more money or more years than we were willing to give him. I'll be interested to see, when he does sign (the Lakers are a possibility, by the way), how much it's for, because I think we're going to regret not ponying up for him.
Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Jermaine O'Neal were under contract and are back, as is Avery Bradley. We also signed our two draft picks, JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore. Here's how we've filled out the rest of the roster:
We traded Glen Davis to Orlando for Brandon Bass. I like this move. Baby is a likable guy and a serviceable player, but his love affair with his inconsistent jumper was infuriating. In Bass, the Celtics get a similar player (Bass loves the mid-range game, too), but one who shoots a bit better and can score at the rim -- where Baby would get his shot blocked inside because he lacked the athleticism to get off the ground and explode through defenders, Bass should be able to finish those plays. Bass is also a more consistent offensive rebounder than Davis, and better on the defensive glass, as well. If I have one reservation about this trade, it's that Bass was highly-coveted by the Magic, who signed him to a four-year, $18 million contract in 2009, then almost immediately soured on him. He averaged just 13 minutes per game in his first year in Orlando, averaging twice that last year when the Magic shook up their team with various trades. Magic coach Stan Van Gundy is a defense-oriented guy, and so it's hard for me to imagine that he'd sign off on this swap if unless he thought he was getting an upgrade on that end of the floor. The defensive metrics seem to point to Bass being a downgrade from Davis, whose major contribution on defense was taking charges in help defense situations. So I guess we'll see how Bass holds up on D, though a good scheme can do a lot to hide deficiencies in that area.
We signed Jeff Green to a one-year deal. Jeff Clark over at Celtics Blog has some good insight as to what this specific contract means for Boston's financial future (though I don't know where he gets the $9 million figure -- I haven't seen it confirmed anywhere), but here's what it means to me: Danny blew up the core of the 2008 title team, the team with the best record in the East at the time, for a guy who is going to be an unrestricted free agent after this season. I know I shouldn't live in the past and that you shouldn't throw good money after bad, but it just doesn't make sense to me. What could Danny have seen during Green's three-month tenure with Boston last season that made him second-guess his opinion? Don't get me wrong; I'm not a huge fan of Green's. But it's unreasonable to expect a guy to come to Doc River's Celtics in the middle of the season and expect him to integrate in right away. It hasn't happened at all in the past four seasons. Either you believe in the guy or you don't. To me, this contract is just another sign of how bad the Perk trade was, even if the contract is actually fine for the Celtics.
We signed Chris Wilcox, Marquis Daniels, Sasha Pavlovic, Keyon Dooling, and Greg Stiemsma. Along with Bass and Green, this is the crew that's going to make up the second unit. Wilcox is a journeyman center who is capable of decent numbers when he's healthy, but his 57 games with Detroit last year were the most he's played in a season since 2007-08. In his prime, he was putting up like a 13/7, but it's unlikely he's capable of that now. Daniels was finding his rhythm as a Celtic last year before a spine injury in early February ended his season and led to a trade to Sacramento. Especially with Delonte gone, it'll be good to have him back to spell Ray Allen. Pavlovic signed at the trade deadline last year to fill one of the roster spots left open by Daniels' move to the Kings. He played 17 games for the Celtics last year, and through the first 16, he made exactly four shots. In the 17th, the regular season finale against the Knicks, with all of Boston's starters resting, he came off the bench to make seven of ten shots (including four of five threes). I wouldn't expect him to play a lot of minutes, but he's the best shooter on the bench. Dooling is another journeyman, a point guard who excels on the defensive end but shoots too much, given how bad he is at it. His career three-point percentage is decent (35 percent), but his overall shooting percentage has been below 40 in each of the last two seasons. He's also the one new guy I know I'm going to have trouble rooting for, and that's especially true since we apparently chose him over Delonte. Stiemsma is a big body who was the D League defensive player of the year last season. I saw him on the USA team that won a bronze medal at the Pan-Am Games in October, and he did little to stand out.
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