A Few Thoughts on the Schedule

The lockout-shortened NBA schedule was announced yesterday, with the league trying to cram 66 games for each team into a time period stretching from Christmas Day to April 26. The result of the labor dispute from a scheduling standpoint is a lot of stuff we're not used to seeing, from back-to-back-to-backs (each team has at least one) and ridiculous stretches like the Hawks playing nine games in the season's first 12 nights.

My first thought when I heard about all of this is that there's going to be some bad basketball played this year in the NBA. While I wasn't a night-to-night fan of the whole league in 1999, the last time a labor dispute shortened the season, I can't imagine that the product that season was up to our usual NBA standard.

I'm not going to spend much energy talking about the Celtics' schedule as compared to the rest of the league's, save a point I heard Jackie MacMullan make on "Around the Horn" this afternoon, which is that, because of TV, the marquee teams (like the Celtics) end up with tougher relative schedules than normal due to the league not wanting to lose premier matchups. Thus, while each team plays only 18 non-conference games (and therefore twice against only three non-conference opponents, Boston's home-and-home Western Conference foes are Dallas, Oklahoma City, and, of course, the Lakers.

Other than that, I'm not going to spend time arguing the league screwed Boston by giving them their back-to-back-to-back on the road in the middle of April during the season's stretch run, or analyzing whether we have more tough Western opponents on the road or at home. I abhor this phrase, but the schedule "is what it is," it sucks for everybody, and nothing can be done about it.

I'm also not going to go through the schedule and highlight the key games and stretches -- you can do that yourself by looking here. But there are a few things the schedule affects that I do want to discuss. (Good thing I have a blog, then!)

I have very low expectations for the regular season. Another point I heard MacMullan make today is that the shortened schedule favors veteran teams -- I have no way of verifying this, but she asserted that the top four teams in 1999 were also the four oldest. Boston certainly qualifies as one of the oldest. In some ways, this makes sense -- the lockout means a very abbreviated training camp and preseason schedule, which benefits veteran teams that have a lot of experience playing with each other. And, as MacMullan pointed out, older players tend to take better care of themselves in the offseason (out of necessity).

On the other hand, it's hard to imagine that playing 17 games a month for four month's is going to be easy on the Boston veterans' legs, well-conditioned though they may be. So as long as we're safely in the playoffs, I'm not going to start freaking out if we don't show up on random nights throughout the season.

Doc's most important job is managing minutes. There's a caveat to my above promise, and that is if that we lose games in March and April while Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett are playing 38 minutes per. Most of the things I criticized Doc for in past years have gotten a lot better, but he still rides the horses too hard. Allen is 36 and played 36 minutes per game last year (just one off his career average); Pierce is 34 and played 34 per last season; KG is 35 and played 31. I don't have a number in mind for each of these guys; I just know it needs to be lower. Playing 66 games instead of 82 theoretically means fresher legs in the postseason, a good thing for an older team like ours, but Boston's legs won't be fresh if the studs are playing huge minutes night after night after night, with fewer days off in between.

The rookies better be ready. To that end, there's some opportunity here for Boston's two draft picks, JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore. It depends on what Boston does in free agency, but it's quite possible that the former Purdue teammates will be asked to play significant minutes during the regular season. (The same goes for second-year point guard Avery Bradley.) I'm excited by this prospect -- Doc hasn't done a great job breaking in rookies over the last four years, and so this is a good opportunity to get them some playing time in advance of the rebuilding period that will follow the Big Three era in Boston. The abbreviated preseason makes it harder on these guys because they won't have as much time to prepare, but Johnson and Moore are probably better-prepared to handle it then some other members of their draft class, because they -- unlike their peers -- have four years of college playing experience.