Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Celtics Drop Two to Start Season

I've been in DC since last week, spending time with friends and family over the holidays. I've been too busy to blog, but I haven't been too busy to catch Boston in their season-opening games -- a 106-104 loss in New York on Christmas Day, and a 115-107 defeat in Miami Tuesday night.

In both games, Boston started out very slowly, digging a double-digit hole for themselves in the first half. In both games they clawed back to have a realistic shot at winning, taking the lead into the fourth quarter against the Knicks and getting to within three of the Heat late in the fourth.

It's a disappointing start to the season, and yet we should take it with a grain of salt -- the same grain of salt, I should point out, that would accompany our gloating over a 2-0 start, had the ball bounced that way.

The first way to put these losses in perspective is to remember that Paul Pierce hasn't seen the floor yet due to a sore heel. Boston badly missed his offense in a stagnant fourth quarter against the Knicks, and his presence on the defensive end of the floor could have meant a Boston win in either game (or perhaps in both).

The second is to remember that we just played the Knicks and the Heat, two of the better teams in the league. Miami is the odds-on favorite to win the title this year and are in great form (they absolutely took apart Dallas in a Finals rematch on Christmas Day) and New York just might be the third-best team in the East. Even if the Knicks aren't quite as good as some think they are, it's indisputable that Boston's first two opponents are two of the tougher teams in the league to guard. So the fact that we've surrendered 110.5 points per game -- normally a very alarming number -- is tempered by the fact that we've done so against two of the league's best offensive outfits (teams that play at a fast pace, to boot). If New Orleans lights us up Wednesday night, then I'll start to worry about the D.

Honestly, we're not that far from 2-0. We didn't deserve to win either game, really, not with the way we played in the first half, but we hung around, like we always seem to. Carmelo Anthony got hot in the fourth quarter in New York and a rookie named Norris Cole beat our zone (!) in the fourth quarter in Miami -- if not for those guys, we really could have opened with two wins. Two road wins, without the Captain.

That's probably stretching it. My point is, I'm not too concerned. The season ahead is lockout-shortened, but it's still long. Losing on the road to the Knicks and Heat was likely to happen.

Here's what I do hate: Ray Allen has played 38 and 40 minutes, respectively, in the first two games. Allen is, as always, in outstanding physical condition, but that's just too many minutes. Way too many. I'm going to give Doc a little bit of a pass because of the bodies he's missing (Pierce and the newly-signed Mickael Pietrus play the wing), but given Doc's tendencies, I'm expecting that I'll be complaining about the minutes situation all year. Doc did do a nice job limiting Kevin Garnett to 33 minutes Tuesday after KG played 37 in the opener, and this despite the fact that Chris Wilcox sat the whole second half with some sort of (hopefully minor) injury. But Rajon R-ndo can't play 40-plus minutes a game, either, if we're going to make a deep playoff run after what will be a very grueling season.

Save for one absolutely critical turnover in the waning moments against Miami, by the way, R-ndo has been almost flawless. He followed up a 31/5/13 performance against New York with a 22/8/12. Even better: He hit nine of 12 free throws against New York and seven of 11 against Miami. Seventy percent from the line from your point guard isn't normally something to get excited about, but normally your point guard didn't shoot under 60 percent from the stripe last season. What's more, I think this improvement could be permanent; he's slowed his pace at the line way down and everything about the shot looks smoother. A somewhat reliable free throw stroke should give him the confidence to go to the bucket more this year, which we're going to need.

Another bright spot, offensively, has been the bench. Brandon Bass had 20 points and 11 rebounds against the Knicks, while Keyon Dooling did the heavy lifting with 18 off the bench against the Heat. I'm more confident in Bass' ability to contribute regularly than Dooling's; Dooling will rarely shoot as well as he did Tuesday night, and the confidence these strong evenings brings may end up doing more harm than good if it convinces him to play outside his rather modest offensive abilities. Put another way, I'm going to need to see several more games of solid shooting from Dooling before I get comfortable watching him cock the ball way back -- behind his shoulder, to the side of his head -- truly one of the more bizarre shooting strokes in the NBA.

A lot to improve on, but no need to panic just yet.

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