I've been in DC since last week, spending time with friends and family over the holidays. I've been too busy to blog, but I haven't been too busy to catch Boston in their season-opening games -- a 106-104 loss in New York on Christmas Day, and a 115-107 defeat in Miami Tuesday night.
In both games, Boston started out very slowly, digging a double-digit hole for themselves in the first half. In both games they clawed back to have a realistic shot at winning, taking the lead into the fourth quarter against the Knicks and getting to within three of the Heat late in the fourth.
It's a disappointing start to the season, and yet we should take it with a grain of salt -- the same grain of salt, I should point out, that would accompany our gloating over a 2-0 start, had the ball bounced that way.
The first way to put these losses in perspective is to remember that Paul Pierce hasn't seen the floor yet due to a sore heel. Boston badly missed his offense in a stagnant fourth quarter against the Knicks, and his presence on the defensive end of the floor could have meant a Boston win in either game (or perhaps in both).
The second is to remember that we just played the Knicks and the Heat, two of the better teams in the league. Miami is the odds-on favorite to win the title this year and are in great form (they absolutely took apart Dallas in a Finals rematch on Christmas Day) and New York just might be the third-best team in the East. Even if the Knicks aren't quite as good as some think they are, it's indisputable that Boston's first two opponents are two of the tougher teams in the league to guard. So the fact that we've surrendered 110.5 points per game -- normally a very alarming number -- is tempered by the fact that we've done so against two of the league's best offensive outfits (teams that play at a fast pace, to boot). If New Orleans lights us up Wednesday night, then I'll start to worry about the D.
Honestly, we're not that far from 2-0. We didn't deserve to win either game, really, not with the way we played in the first half, but we hung around, like we always seem to. Carmelo Anthony got hot in the fourth quarter in New York and a rookie named Norris Cole beat our zone (!) in the fourth quarter in Miami -- if not for those guys, we really could have opened with two wins. Two road wins, without the Captain.
That's probably stretching it. My point is, I'm not too concerned. The season ahead is lockout-shortened, but it's still long. Losing on the road to the Knicks and Heat was likely to happen.
Here's what I do hate: Ray Allen has played 38 and 40 minutes, respectively, in the first two games. Allen is, as always, in outstanding physical condition, but that's just too many minutes. Way too many. I'm going to give Doc a little bit of a pass because of the bodies he's missing (Pierce and the newly-signed Mickael Pietrus play the wing), but given Doc's tendencies, I'm expecting that I'll be complaining about the minutes situation all year. Doc did do a nice job limiting Kevin Garnett to 33 minutes Tuesday after KG played 37 in the opener, and this despite the fact that Chris Wilcox sat the whole second half with some sort of (hopefully minor) injury. But Rajon R-ndo can't play 40-plus minutes a game, either, if we're going to make a deep playoff run after what will be a very grueling season.
Save for one absolutely critical turnover in the waning moments against Miami, by the way, R-ndo has been almost flawless. He followed up a 31/5/13 performance against New York with a 22/8/12. Even better: He hit nine of 12 free throws against New York and seven of 11 against Miami. Seventy percent from the line from your point guard isn't normally something to get excited about, but normally your point guard didn't shoot under 60 percent from the stripe last season. What's more, I think this improvement could be permanent; he's slowed his pace at the line way down and everything about the shot looks smoother. A somewhat reliable free throw stroke should give him the confidence to go to the bucket more this year, which we're going to need.
Another bright spot, offensively, has been the bench. Brandon Bass had 20 points and 11 rebounds against the Knicks, while Keyon Dooling did the heavy lifting with 18 off the bench against the Heat. I'm more confident in Bass' ability to contribute regularly than Dooling's; Dooling will rarely shoot as well as he did Tuesday night, and the confidence these strong evenings brings may end up doing more harm than good if it convinces him to play outside his rather modest offensive abilities. Put another way, I'm going to need to see several more games of solid shooting from Dooling before I get comfortable watching him cock the ball way back -- behind his shoulder, to the side of his head -- truly one of the more bizarre shooting strokes in the NBA.
A lot to improve on, but no need to panic just yet.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Jeff Green Out for Season
Jeff Green will not play basketball this season, due to an aortic aneurysm. He's having heart surgery next month.
This certainly comes as a surprise, though we've known for a little while now that Green was having some sort of health issue. He had been held out of the team's early practices because he hadn't yet passed his physical.
The temptation is to tack this on to the list of reasons that the Green-for-Kendrick-Perkins trade last February was a disaster, but that's not fair to Danny and it distracts from the more important issue, Green's health. While heart surgery is a serious matter, it sounds like Green's long-term outlook is good and that the condition, when treated, doesn't even threaten his career, let alone his life.
From a basketball perspective, this obviously puts the Celtics in a tough spot. When action is taken to try and replace Green in the rotation, I'll let you know.
This certainly comes as a surprise, though we've known for a little while now that Green was having some sort of health issue. He had been held out of the team's early practices because he hadn't yet passed his physical.
The temptation is to tack this on to the list of reasons that the Green-for-Kendrick-Perkins trade last February was a disaster, but that's not fair to Danny and it distracts from the more important issue, Green's health. While heart surgery is a serious matter, it sounds like Green's long-term outlook is good and that the condition, when treated, doesn't even threaten his career, let alone his life.
From a basketball perspective, this obviously puts the Celtics in a tough spot. When action is taken to try and replace Green in the rotation, I'll let you know.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Catching Up On The Preseason Moves
I generally don't like to post about rumored moves, because I can't keep up with the news and you're better off getting your information somewhere else. This year, especially, has been difficult to follow, with the whole offseason and preseason condensed into like three weeks. I think the below information is accurate, but I'm seeing all sorts of conflicting reports and can't be sure.
Let me start with the moves we didn't make:
We didn't trade for Chris Paul. I laid out how I felt about trading Rajon Rondo for Paul in this post, but it really turned out to be a moot point: If what the Lakers and Clippers were willing to give up wasn't enough to satisfy David Stern, then no package the Celtics put together would have. Rondo reportedly has been upbeat at camp thus far, so it appears we've avoided the whole mess and kept everyone reasonably happy.
We didn't trade for David West. Before he signed with the Pacers, we were rumored to be sending Jermaine O'Neal and an unnamed player to the Hornets in a sign-and-trade for West. It ultimately fell through, and I know a few people are a little bummed out that it did. I'm glad we couldn't get it to work, though. I've always liked West, but he's 31 and had ACL surgery in April, and his preferred mid-range game doesn't make him a good fit alongside Kevin Garnett. That meant that at best, we would have been getting a sixth-starter type who poses some lineup challenges for Doc. At worst, we'd have been getting a veteran who needed more than eight months to recover from a knee injury and was more or less useless in perhaps our last push for a championship. Not the kind of guy you want to throw $20 million at, especially at the expense of the only decent center on our roster, as unreliable as his health may be.
We didn't sign Delonte West. This is the one that bugs me a little bit. A wrist injury derailed his return to Boston last season, but the guy is a proven combo guard who can help at both ends of the floor. I don't exactly know what went down, but I'm guessing Delonte wanted more money or more years than we were willing to give him. I'll be interested to see, when he does sign (the Lakers are a possibility, by the way), how much it's for, because I think we're going to regret not ponying up for him.
Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Jermaine O'Neal were under contract and are back, as is Avery Bradley. We also signed our two draft picks, JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore. Here's how we've filled out the rest of the roster:
We traded Glen Davis to Orlando for Brandon Bass. I like this move. Baby is a likable guy and a serviceable player, but his love affair with his inconsistent jumper was infuriating. In Bass, the Celtics get a similar player (Bass loves the mid-range game, too), but one who shoots a bit better and can score at the rim -- where Baby would get his shot blocked inside because he lacked the athleticism to get off the ground and explode through defenders, Bass should be able to finish those plays. Bass is also a more consistent offensive rebounder than Davis, and better on the defensive glass, as well. If I have one reservation about this trade, it's that Bass was highly-coveted by the Magic, who signed him to a four-year, $18 million contract in 2009, then almost immediately soured on him. He averaged just 13 minutes per game in his first year in Orlando, averaging twice that last year when the Magic shook up their team with various trades. Magic coach Stan Van Gundy is a defense-oriented guy, and so it's hard for me to imagine that he'd sign off on this swap if unless he thought he was getting an upgrade on that end of the floor. The defensive metrics seem to point to Bass being a downgrade from Davis, whose major contribution on defense was taking charges in help defense situations. So I guess we'll see how Bass holds up on D, though a good scheme can do a lot to hide deficiencies in that area.
We signed Jeff Green to a one-year deal. Jeff Clark over at Celtics Blog has some good insight as to what this specific contract means for Boston's financial future (though I don't know where he gets the $9 million figure -- I haven't seen it confirmed anywhere), but here's what it means to me: Danny blew up the core of the 2008 title team, the team with the best record in the East at the time, for a guy who is going to be an unrestricted free agent after this season. I know I shouldn't live in the past and that you shouldn't throw good money after bad, but it just doesn't make sense to me. What could Danny have seen during Green's three-month tenure with Boston last season that made him second-guess his opinion? Don't get me wrong; I'm not a huge fan of Green's. But it's unreasonable to expect a guy to come to Doc River's Celtics in the middle of the season and expect him to integrate in right away. It hasn't happened at all in the past four seasons. Either you believe in the guy or you don't. To me, this contract is just another sign of how bad the Perk trade was, even if the contract is actually fine for the Celtics.
We signed Chris Wilcox, Marquis Daniels, Sasha Pavlovic, Keyon Dooling, and Greg Stiemsma. Along with Bass and Green, this is the crew that's going to make up the second unit. Wilcox is a journeyman center who is capable of decent numbers when he's healthy, but his 57 games with Detroit last year were the most he's played in a season since 2007-08. In his prime, he was putting up like a 13/7, but it's unlikely he's capable of that now. Daniels was finding his rhythm as a Celtic last year before a spine injury in early February ended his season and led to a trade to Sacramento. Especially with Delonte gone, it'll be good to have him back to spell Ray Allen. Pavlovic signed at the trade deadline last year to fill one of the roster spots left open by Daniels' move to the Kings. He played 17 games for the Celtics last year, and through the first 16, he made exactly four shots. In the 17th, the regular season finale against the Knicks, with all of Boston's starters resting, he came off the bench to make seven of ten shots (including four of five threes). I wouldn't expect him to play a lot of minutes, but he's the best shooter on the bench. Dooling is another journeyman, a point guard who excels on the defensive end but shoots too much, given how bad he is at it. His career three-point percentage is decent (35 percent), but his overall shooting percentage has been below 40 in each of the last two seasons. He's also the one new guy I know I'm going to have trouble rooting for, and that's especially true since we apparently chose him over Delonte. Stiemsma is a big body who was the D League defensive player of the year last season. I saw him on the USA team that won a bronze medal at the Pan-Am Games in October, and he did little to stand out.
Let me start with the moves we didn't make:
We didn't trade for Chris Paul. I laid out how I felt about trading Rajon Rondo for Paul in this post, but it really turned out to be a moot point: If what the Lakers and Clippers were willing to give up wasn't enough to satisfy David Stern, then no package the Celtics put together would have. Rondo reportedly has been upbeat at camp thus far, so it appears we've avoided the whole mess and kept everyone reasonably happy.
We didn't trade for David West. Before he signed with the Pacers, we were rumored to be sending Jermaine O'Neal and an unnamed player to the Hornets in a sign-and-trade for West. It ultimately fell through, and I know a few people are a little bummed out that it did. I'm glad we couldn't get it to work, though. I've always liked West, but he's 31 and had ACL surgery in April, and his preferred mid-range game doesn't make him a good fit alongside Kevin Garnett. That meant that at best, we would have been getting a sixth-starter type who poses some lineup challenges for Doc. At worst, we'd have been getting a veteran who needed more than eight months to recover from a knee injury and was more or less useless in perhaps our last push for a championship. Not the kind of guy you want to throw $20 million at, especially at the expense of the only decent center on our roster, as unreliable as his health may be.
We didn't sign Delonte West. This is the one that bugs me a little bit. A wrist injury derailed his return to Boston last season, but the guy is a proven combo guard who can help at both ends of the floor. I don't exactly know what went down, but I'm guessing Delonte wanted more money or more years than we were willing to give him. I'll be interested to see, when he does sign (the Lakers are a possibility, by the way), how much it's for, because I think we're going to regret not ponying up for him.
Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Jermaine O'Neal were under contract and are back, as is Avery Bradley. We also signed our two draft picks, JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore. Here's how we've filled out the rest of the roster:
We traded Glen Davis to Orlando for Brandon Bass. I like this move. Baby is a likable guy and a serviceable player, but his love affair with his inconsistent jumper was infuriating. In Bass, the Celtics get a similar player (Bass loves the mid-range game, too), but one who shoots a bit better and can score at the rim -- where Baby would get his shot blocked inside because he lacked the athleticism to get off the ground and explode through defenders, Bass should be able to finish those plays. Bass is also a more consistent offensive rebounder than Davis, and better on the defensive glass, as well. If I have one reservation about this trade, it's that Bass was highly-coveted by the Magic, who signed him to a four-year, $18 million contract in 2009, then almost immediately soured on him. He averaged just 13 minutes per game in his first year in Orlando, averaging twice that last year when the Magic shook up their team with various trades. Magic coach Stan Van Gundy is a defense-oriented guy, and so it's hard for me to imagine that he'd sign off on this swap if unless he thought he was getting an upgrade on that end of the floor. The defensive metrics seem to point to Bass being a downgrade from Davis, whose major contribution on defense was taking charges in help defense situations. So I guess we'll see how Bass holds up on D, though a good scheme can do a lot to hide deficiencies in that area.
We signed Jeff Green to a one-year deal. Jeff Clark over at Celtics Blog has some good insight as to what this specific contract means for Boston's financial future (though I don't know where he gets the $9 million figure -- I haven't seen it confirmed anywhere), but here's what it means to me: Danny blew up the core of the 2008 title team, the team with the best record in the East at the time, for a guy who is going to be an unrestricted free agent after this season. I know I shouldn't live in the past and that you shouldn't throw good money after bad, but it just doesn't make sense to me. What could Danny have seen during Green's three-month tenure with Boston last season that made him second-guess his opinion? Don't get me wrong; I'm not a huge fan of Green's. But it's unreasonable to expect a guy to come to Doc River's Celtics in the middle of the season and expect him to integrate in right away. It hasn't happened at all in the past four seasons. Either you believe in the guy or you don't. To me, this contract is just another sign of how bad the Perk trade was, even if the contract is actually fine for the Celtics.
We signed Chris Wilcox, Marquis Daniels, Sasha Pavlovic, Keyon Dooling, and Greg Stiemsma. Along with Bass and Green, this is the crew that's going to make up the second unit. Wilcox is a journeyman center who is capable of decent numbers when he's healthy, but his 57 games with Detroit last year were the most he's played in a season since 2007-08. In his prime, he was putting up like a 13/7, but it's unlikely he's capable of that now. Daniels was finding his rhythm as a Celtic last year before a spine injury in early February ended his season and led to a trade to Sacramento. Especially with Delonte gone, it'll be good to have him back to spell Ray Allen. Pavlovic signed at the trade deadline last year to fill one of the roster spots left open by Daniels' move to the Kings. He played 17 games for the Celtics last year, and through the first 16, he made exactly four shots. In the 17th, the regular season finale against the Knicks, with all of Boston's starters resting, he came off the bench to make seven of ten shots (including four of five threes). I wouldn't expect him to play a lot of minutes, but he's the best shooter on the bench. Dooling is another journeyman, a point guard who excels on the defensive end but shoots too much, given how bad he is at it. His career three-point percentage is decent (35 percent), but his overall shooting percentage has been below 40 in each of the last two seasons. He's also the one new guy I know I'm going to have trouble rooting for, and that's especially true since we apparently chose him over Delonte. Stiemsma is a big body who was the D League defensive player of the year last season. I saw him on the USA team that won a bronze medal at the Pan-Am Games in October, and he did little to stand out.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
A Few Thoughts on the Schedule
The lockout-shortened NBA schedule was announced yesterday, with the league trying to cram 66 games for each team into a time period stretching from Christmas Day to April 26. The result of the labor dispute from a scheduling standpoint is a lot of stuff we're not used to seeing, from back-to-back-to-backs (each team has at least one) and ridiculous stretches like the Hawks playing nine games in the season's first 12 nights.
My first thought when I heard about all of this is that there's going to be some bad basketball played this year in the NBA. While I wasn't a night-to-night fan of the whole league in 1999, the last time a labor dispute shortened the season, I can't imagine that the product that season was up to our usual NBA standard.
I'm not going to spend much energy talking about the Celtics' schedule as compared to the rest of the league's, save a point I heard Jackie MacMullan make on "Around the Horn" this afternoon, which is that, because of TV, the marquee teams (like the Celtics) end up with tougher relative schedules than normal due to the league not wanting to lose premier matchups. Thus, while each team plays only 18 non-conference games (and therefore twice against only three non-conference opponents, Boston's home-and-home Western Conference foes are Dallas, Oklahoma City, and, of course, the Lakers.
Other than that, I'm not going to spend time arguing the league screwed Boston by giving them their back-to-back-to-back on the road in the middle of April during the season's stretch run, or analyzing whether we have more tough Western opponents on the road or at home. I abhor this phrase, but the schedule "is what it is," it sucks for everybody, and nothing can be done about it.
I'm also not going to go through the schedule and highlight the key games and stretches -- you can do that yourself by looking here. But there are a few things the schedule affects that I do want to discuss. (Good thing I have a blog, then!)
I have very low expectations for the regular season. Another point I heard MacMullan make today is that the shortened schedule favors veteran teams -- I have no way of verifying this, but she asserted that the top four teams in 1999 were also the four oldest. Boston certainly qualifies as one of the oldest. In some ways, this makes sense -- the lockout means a very abbreviated training camp and preseason schedule, which benefits veteran teams that have a lot of experience playing with each other. And, as MacMullan pointed out, older players tend to take better care of themselves in the offseason (out of necessity).
On the other hand, it's hard to imagine that playing 17 games a month for four month's is going to be easy on the Boston veterans' legs, well-conditioned though they may be. So as long as we're safely in the playoffs, I'm not going to start freaking out if we don't show up on random nights throughout the season.
Doc's most important job is managing minutes. There's a caveat to my above promise, and that is if that we lose games in March and April while Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett are playing 38 minutes per. Most of the things I criticized Doc for in past years have gotten a lot better, but he still rides the horses too hard. Allen is 36 and played 36 minutes per game last year (just one off his career average); Pierce is 34 and played 34 per last season; KG is 35 and played 31. I don't have a number in mind for each of these guys; I just know it needs to be lower. Playing 66 games instead of 82 theoretically means fresher legs in the postseason, a good thing for an older team like ours, but Boston's legs won't be fresh if the studs are playing huge minutes night after night after night, with fewer days off in between.
The rookies better be ready. To that end, there's some opportunity here for Boston's two draft picks, JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore. It depends on what Boston does in free agency, but it's quite possible that the former Purdue teammates will be asked to play significant minutes during the regular season. (The same goes for second-year point guard Avery Bradley.) I'm excited by this prospect -- Doc hasn't done a great job breaking in rookies over the last four years, and so this is a good opportunity to get them some playing time in advance of the rebuilding period that will follow the Big Three era in Boston. The abbreviated preseason makes it harder on these guys because they won't have as much time to prepare, but Johnson and Moore are probably better-prepared to handle it then some other members of their draft class, because they -- unlike their peers -- have four years of college playing experience.
My first thought when I heard about all of this is that there's going to be some bad basketball played this year in the NBA. While I wasn't a night-to-night fan of the whole league in 1999, the last time a labor dispute shortened the season, I can't imagine that the product that season was up to our usual NBA standard.
I'm not going to spend much energy talking about the Celtics' schedule as compared to the rest of the league's, save a point I heard Jackie MacMullan make on "Around the Horn" this afternoon, which is that, because of TV, the marquee teams (like the Celtics) end up with tougher relative schedules than normal due to the league not wanting to lose premier matchups. Thus, while each team plays only 18 non-conference games (and therefore twice against only three non-conference opponents, Boston's home-and-home Western Conference foes are Dallas, Oklahoma City, and, of course, the Lakers.
Other than that, I'm not going to spend time arguing the league screwed Boston by giving them their back-to-back-to-back on the road in the middle of April during the season's stretch run, or analyzing whether we have more tough Western opponents on the road or at home. I abhor this phrase, but the schedule "is what it is," it sucks for everybody, and nothing can be done about it.
I'm also not going to go through the schedule and highlight the key games and stretches -- you can do that yourself by looking here. But there are a few things the schedule affects that I do want to discuss. (Good thing I have a blog, then!)
I have very low expectations for the regular season. Another point I heard MacMullan make today is that the shortened schedule favors veteran teams -- I have no way of verifying this, but she asserted that the top four teams in 1999 were also the four oldest. Boston certainly qualifies as one of the oldest. In some ways, this makes sense -- the lockout means a very abbreviated training camp and preseason schedule, which benefits veteran teams that have a lot of experience playing with each other. And, as MacMullan pointed out, older players tend to take better care of themselves in the offseason (out of necessity).
On the other hand, it's hard to imagine that playing 17 games a month for four month's is going to be easy on the Boston veterans' legs, well-conditioned though they may be. So as long as we're safely in the playoffs, I'm not going to start freaking out if we don't show up on random nights throughout the season.
Doc's most important job is managing minutes. There's a caveat to my above promise, and that is if that we lose games in March and April while Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett are playing 38 minutes per. Most of the things I criticized Doc for in past years have gotten a lot better, but he still rides the horses too hard. Allen is 36 and played 36 minutes per game last year (just one off his career average); Pierce is 34 and played 34 per last season; KG is 35 and played 31. I don't have a number in mind for each of these guys; I just know it needs to be lower. Playing 66 games instead of 82 theoretically means fresher legs in the postseason, a good thing for an older team like ours, but Boston's legs won't be fresh if the studs are playing huge minutes night after night after night, with fewer days off in between.
The rookies better be ready. To that end, there's some opportunity here for Boston's two draft picks, JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore. It depends on what Boston does in free agency, but it's quite possible that the former Purdue teammates will be asked to play significant minutes during the regular season. (The same goes for second-year point guard Avery Bradley.) I'm excited by this prospect -- Doc hasn't done a great job breaking in rookies over the last four years, and so this is a good opportunity to get them some playing time in advance of the rebuilding period that will follow the Big Three era in Boston. The abbreviated preseason makes it harder on these guys because they won't have as much time to prepare, but Johnson and Moore are probably better-prepared to handle it then some other members of their draft class, because they -- unlike their peers -- have four years of college playing experience.
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