Sunday, January 9, 2011

The Next Lamb: The Houston Rockets

Game 37: Houston (16-21) at Boston (28-8)
Monday, January 10
7:30 p.m. Eastern
NBA League Pass

As NBA injury stories go, the story of Yao Ming certainly rivals that of Portland's Greg Oden in terms of basketball tragedy. Yao missed all of last season with a foot injury, came back for the first few weeks of this season, then suffered a stress fracture in his foot while rehabbing a strained tendon in his leg. Another season gone, and there are very real concerns that he's played his last NBA game.

Trying to re-incorporate Yao into the offense at the beginning of the season (while dealing with his minutes cap and unavailability on the second night of back-to-backs) cost Houston at the start of the year, as the Rockets dropped their first five games. After Yao got hurt, the team struggled through the end of November, in part due to an ankle injury to point guard Aaron Brooks.

They seemed to be turning things around at the end of 2010, going 11-4 in December and winning five of their final six games of the calendar year. But a brutal schedule -- five games in seven days, all against current playoff teams -- combined with a more minor ankle injury to Brooks has the Rockets slumping, losers of their first five games of 2011.

When Brooks is healthy, he's the Rockets most dangerous offensive weapon, a true scorer with no fear and great range. He's not healthy, though; he never made it into the starting lineup after his injury (coming off the bench for 20-25 minutes per game in the six games he played before getting hurt again) and clearly isn't the same player yet. So even if he does play, Boston's defensive focus should be on shooting guard Kevin Martin, a wispy shooting guard with an uncanny knack for getting to the line, and Luis Scola, their terrific power forward. Kevin Garnett may be back for Boston, which would be a huge boost. I'm assuming the Rockets took notice of the way that Chicago's Carlos Boozer took advantage of Glen Davis in the post last night, and if KG is out of the lineup, I would expect a heavy dose of Scola.

In the absence of Yao, 6-6 Chuck Hayes was getting the majority of starts at center, but he's out until later in the month with an ankle injury of his own. Second-year player Jordan Hill has been getting the starts with Hayes out, but veteran Brad Miller -- an old favorite of coach Rick Adelman's from their glory days in Sacramento -- has been getting the majority of the minutes. Miller is a hard-nosed center with great passing ability and good range for a man his size, but his lack of mobility means that Shaquille O'Neal shouldn't have as much trouble with him as some other centers in the league. Hill might give Shaq more trouble, at least on the glass, but his lack of polish will hurt him, and he's not as aggressive as some of the other young bigs in the league. Rookie Patrick Patterson has made his way into the rotation due to the injuries and provides rebounding and a little bit of scoring.

Houston's starting point guard is Kyle Lowry, a brawny six-footer who isn't flashy but gets the job done on both ends of the court. He's a passable three-point shooter at 37.1 percent, but his overall field goal percentage is just 39.2 percent, so I imagine Boston will be more than willing to let him get his own shot rather than deal to Martin and Scola. The Rockets have a variety of effective perimeter players, including veteran Shane Battier and young guns Courtney Lee and Chase Budinger. Defending the three-point line will be a big key for Boston.

In conclusion, I love watching Houston because of how hard they play. There's no team in the league that brings it every night harder than the Rockets do. Boston's had a tendency to sleepwalk through games in past years. It's not as big a problem this year as it has been, but they better be ready to play from the beginning, or they might find themselves slapped with an unexpected home loss -- despite all of Houston's injuries.

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