Bring on the Lakers!

Before I get to the long overdue Finals preview post, a few personal messages:

• First, I want to welcome into the world one of the newest Celtics fans, Harrison Budd Tinger, born on the morning of the Eastern Conference clincher to my good friends Brian and Mariah (Titlow) Tinger. Harrison, my man, you have two wonderful parents, and that gives you a head start in life. Since you're their son, I know you won't look back.
• Second, congratulations to Dave and Carissa (Jobe) Clark, who graciously accomodated us Celtics fans during their wedding reception two weekends ago by making sure there was a TV present for Game 3 against the Magic. Thanks, guys; I haven't been to a party like that in quite some time.
• Last, but certainly not least, congratulations to my dear friends Dave and Anna (Rack) Roberts, not the least bit because Friday's clincher mercifully kept them from having to deal with Celtics fans periodically running out of their wedding reception to watch a Game 7. I couldn't be happier for both of you.

Let's analyze basketball a little bit. Game 1 tips at 9 p.m. Eastern on Thursday night on ABC.

• I've been saying since Game 1 of the conference finals that LA would struggle in Game 1 of the Finals against whoever they played. The Celtics and Magic play far more physically than Phoenix does; it's bound to be a shock to the Lakers. I'm not saying they can't handle it -- though it was the main X-factor in 2008 and it's up to the Lakers to prove things are different this time around -- just that it's going to take some adjusting. It's for this reason that I think Game 1 is our best opportunity to take one of the first two on the road -- which I think is crucial in this 2-3-2 format.
• Speaking of the 2-3-2 format, the explanation I've always heard for it (recall that previous playoff rounds follow a 2-2-1-1-1 format) is that it cuts down on the coast-to-coast travel. That makes it curious to me that after Game 2 on Sunday, the teams will have fewer than 48 hours to fly from LA to Boston for Game 3 on Tuesday night. Given that the Celtics are older and a bit more banged up than the Lakers, the quick turnaround in theory works against Boston. This makes at least a split in LA all the more important, in my opinion.
• Word is that Kobe Bryant will guard Rajon Rondo and Derek Fisher will check Ray Allen. The thinking on the Lakers side is that this saves Kobe from chasing Ray all over the court, and that Fisher, who can't stay in front of Rondo, can at least bother Ray by being physical. From a Boston perspective, Rondo will need to punish Kobe if he helps, not necessarily by knocking down open jumpers, but by attacking before Kobe can get back to him. The Kobe-on-Rondo strategy worked for a couple games in the 2008 Finals, but Rondo is now used to having guys playing off of him. He needs to attack, not just for points, but to make Kobe expend some energy on defense and possibly get into foul trouble.
• Ray is going to be a key offensive player if Fisher guards him because it then becomes the best matchup we have (really, whoever Fisher is guarding is the best matchup we have). The offense we run for Ray is typically him coming off a maze of screens for a jumper, which won't fully take advantage of the mismatch. I'm interested to see if we'll run some of the same isolation plays for Ray that we often run for Paul Pierce.
• Speaking of Pierce, while we don't want to forget about him offensively, we need to recognize that Ron Artest always guards him very well -- something we refused to pay attention to in the regular season matchups. We can't count on leaning on Pierce the way we tend to, at least not from the beginning. We need to have a Plan B.
• Defensively, I expect we'll do what we typically do against the Lakers (and teams with players like Kobe): Dare them to beat us from the outside. Phoenix had a lot of success with a zone against LA in the Western finals, and while I don't expect a formal zone from us, forcing the Lakers to shoot 3s is certainly within our M.O. against them.
• Kendrick Perkins is one technical away from a suspension, and having watched the big fella for years now, it's hard to be confident that he'll go six games in a series of this intensity without getting hit with something. He needs to be very careful, because we need him to counter the Lakers' frontcourt size.

When we were playing our second-round series with Cleveland, I was in the middle of final exams and often found myself watching the game in a bar or restaurant -- usually wearing a shirt with "Rondo" or "Pierce" printed across the back. On those occasions, I would invariably run into Lakers fans -- I live in LA, after all -- who told me that they were rooting for us. Not, I feel, because they wanted revenge for 2008 or because they wanted to see yet another chapter of the NBA's greatest rivalry, but because they figured they had a better chance of beating us than the Cavs -- an understandable sentiment, I guess, given that Cleveland had the best record in the league and Boston underwhelmed for most of the regular season.

Now that the Celtics have dispatched not only the Cavs but also the Magic in relatively convincing fashion, I suspect their tune has changed. And just in observing the talk around town, I detect just a bit of insecurity from the team and their fans. Some of it has to do with Boston's unexpected, inspired play over the past several weeks, and some of it, I'm sure, is because another Finals defeat to their bitter rival would be too much to bear, all but erasing last year's success.

You wanted us, LA.

You got us.