Playoffs Begin

Sorry for abandoning the blog for a couple of weeks; the end of the NBA season, especially for teams with no playoff spot or seeding to play for, can be kind of dull and not really indicative of anything, as stars play reduced minutes and sit out entire games to nurse injuries and rest weary legs. I've been working my ass off the last couple of weeks in school, and I just haven't found the time to watch meaningless games against the Bucks.

So, the playoffs start on Saturday (we're playing at 8 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, part of ESPN and ABC's Saturday quadrupleheader and weekend octupleheader). We drew the fourth seed and the Miami Heat, who overtook the Milwaukee Bucks in the season's final few weeks after Bucks center Andrew Bogut was lost with injuries he suffered in a nasty fall from the rim in a game against Phoenix. Playing the Bogut-less Bucks would have been nice and may be the best argument for why the 3 seed is better than the 4 this year. Instead, we get Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat.

We went 3-0 against the Heat this year, though we haven't played this since February, and all three games were reasonably close. (We needed this miracle to win the game in January.) Wade is a dominating force, on the short list of the best players in the game today, capable of winning a game and perhaps an entire playoff series on his own. They have some other good players, but Wade is the Man.

But to me, for the purposes of this blog, anyway, this series isn't about the Heat. Miami's a fine basketball team, but they aren't good enough to beat the guys in green and white -- under normal circumstances. What we've seen for the second half of this season, however, is that Boston isn't playing under normal circumstances -- and by that admittedly clunky term, I mean that we aren't the team I thought we'd be and we certainly aren't the team we were when the year started. Whether we're capable of regaining that form is the big question. If we are, and we do, then Miami can't beat us.

But it's hard to be confident. Too much is going on right now. The team is basically .500 since the All-Star break. We're not guarding anyone. Marquis Daniels and Nate Robinson aren't playing regular minutes, but Rasheed Wallace and Michael Finley are. Boston's biggest homer not named Tommy Heinsohn has turned against the team, (rightfully) ripping 'sheed last week and authoritatively picking the Heat in 7 (necessarily predicting a Game 7 loss at home). There are rumors that Doc Rivers is considering leaving after the season, an indication of just how bad things must be in the locker room.

What's my pick? A very tepid Celtics in seven. But nothing - literally, no outcome from a Miami sweep to a Boston sweep - would surprise me.