Thursday, April 30, 2009

With Apologies to Wyclef Jean...

...I'll be gone til September.

For reasons related to my summer employment, I am prohibited from posting anything on the Internet from May 1-August 31. So this is the last RwH post until after the summer.

That means there's a lot I won't be able to comment on, at least not publicly, starting with Saturday's Game 7 with Chicago, continuing perhaps with a second-round series with Orlando and who-knows-what from there. In addition to the draft in June and Summer League in Las Vegas in July, I also won't be able to post about the aftermath of Kevin Garnett's knee surgery, or what the team decides to do with Glen Davis and Leon Powe (I hope they bring them both back), and what happens with Mikki Moore, Stephon Marbury, and Brian Scalabrine (whose contract is finally valuable, as it expires next season). It's unfortunate, but I'm really excited about my summer job and it's a sacrifice I'm happy to make.

I noticed the other day that I had over 100 posts this season, which surprised me. My audience is small, but I wouldn't keep writing if I didn't think anyone was reading. So thanks to those of you who have checked in from time to time. Most of you have my email address, so we can talk about this stuff using that medium. If I've somehow acquired a readership beyond people I've met in real life and you want to rap about the C's, I can be reached at hayden (dot) alfano (at) gmail (dot) com.

Chicago 128, Boston 127 (Triple Overtime)

Doc Rivers would be a heckuva basketball coach if he knew anything about basketball.

[box score] [recap]

For a guy who enjoyed a moderately successful 13-season NBA career as a point guard, Rivers' basketball instincts on the sideline often lead to some very curious decisions. He's been great in some respects with these Celtics, managing three star players, turning the defense over to assistant Tom Thibodeau. And he did many things right Thursday night, keeping Boston's head in the right place after Rajon Rondo whipped Kirk Hinrich into the scorers' table, pro-wrestling style, in the first quarter, and having the "we can win this if we want it" attitude even when the team fell behind 12 points with ten minutes to play. But when the team responded, proving him right, going on an 18-0 to take a 99-91 lead with 3:38 to go, he let them down.

Chicago cut it to 99-96 in the next 90 seconds, and that's when Rivers panicked. Reacting to a couple of good Chicago possessions, he inserted Tony Allen for Glen Davis to match up against Chicago's small lineup. It was a peculiar time for the move, since the Celtics were about to go on offense -- where the Davis/Salmons matchup favored them. Boston scored on that trip down the floor, but it was the next two possessions that killed them.

A Rondo-Tony-Ray Allen-Paul Pierce-Kendrick Perkins unit allows the opposition to devote two help defenders to stopping Pierce and Ray. With the Bulls giving those two no room, Boston's next two possessions ended in a contested layup and a very difficult runner by Tony at the end of the shot clock. Both missed. Chicago hit the shots they needed, and bingo -- overtime.

The NBA is all about matchups, it's true, and Davis-Salmons, as I said in my last post, favors Chicago. But in that situation, up five points with that little time on the clock, Boston has the advantage of not needing to play matchups. They were in the driver's seat. Another bucket or two seals the game, while Chicago needed to be almost perfect on both ends of the floor. That's the time to put the hammer down and put your best five out there.

Fast-forwarding, now, past a seemingly an endless string of big shots, to the end of the third overtime. Boston had the ball down one with less than a shot clock left, the beneficiaries of a shocking missed layup by Hinrich on the other end. Other relevant details include the fact that Pierce had fouled out, and that Ray Allen had, at the time, 51 points.

The play Rivers ended up calling was an isolation for Rondo at the top of the key. Rondo drove left on Derrick Rose and faked, only Rose didn't bite. Rondo went up for a difficult fallaway, which the much larger Rose blocked rather easily.

I can at least understand the rationale. Especially with Pierce watching from the bench, the Bulls would have surely run a second defender at Ray, willing to take their chances on a jumper from Stephon Marbury, Brian Scalabrine, Rondo, or even the uncharacteristically cold Eddie House. And Rondo has been to able to get to the rim against Rose throughout this series...

...with the exception of this game. While Rondo put up another gaudy stat line in a series during which he had been averaging a triple-double -- nine rebounds and 19 assists, with no turnovers -- he had been quiet scoring, with only eight points. Rondo has nights when he isn't aggressive, and on those nights, I don't think putting the ball in his hands is the right play. And by not running anything for Ray, there was no opportunity to make the Bulls blow a defensive assignment and let somebody slip a screen and roll to the basket. And, finally, Ray was video-game hot, hitting jumpers from all over the place no matter who was in his face. When Ray is going like that, anything he throws up has a good chance to go in.

Look, Boston could have done a million little things to win this game. Perkins left Brad Miller open for a three in regulation and an easy layup off an inbounds play in overtime (the first one). Pierce had a great look at the game-winner at the end of regulation and just missed it. Both Ray and House hit jumpers in overtime with a toe on the line, which my father has been telling me since I was old enough to listen is the worst shot in basketball. Pierce's turnover at 123-123 with 40 seconds left in triple OT was bad, and committing his sixth foul on the ensuing Joakim Noah dunk was worse. But Rivers' curious use of his bench and refusal to ride Ray has been a theme for the last two seasons, a theme easily recognized by any semi-serious fan of the team.

Whatever. This incredible series -- if not the best all-time, certainly the most entertaining -- goes back to Boston for Game 7, and I'll admit that for the first time, I'm afraid of the Bulls. I wasn't worried down 11 in the fourth quarter of Game 5 or down 12 in the fourth in game 6. But this series now has had seven extra periods, and Ray played 59 minutes in Game 6, Pierce 51. Chicago had to play those minutes too, of course, but they are younger, and deeper. And Game 7 is less than 48 hours away.

And the pressure is on the defending champs, too, to close it out at home after having squandered some good opportunities to have put the Bulls away. The Celtics have doggedly defended their title, and they will need that pride to carry them through.

Game 7 tips at 8 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, on TNT.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Boston 106, Chicago 104 (Overtime)

I hope you are watching this.

[recap] [box score]

Game 5 lacked the overall quality of some of the previous contests in this incredible series, but it ended up the same: A series of big plays from both teams down the stretch of regulation and into overtime, where the outcome was decided on effectively the last possession of the game.

Paul Pierce is going to grab the headlines, shaking off the torpor with which he seemed to be playing for much of the game to hit the game-tying basket at the end of regulation and three straight jumpers to win the game in overtime. But with Pierce struggling for much of the game and Ray Allen limited to just 26 minutes -- he fouled out midway through the fourth on two very dubious calls -- Boston wouldn't have even had a chance without the stellar play of Rajon Rondo, Glen Davis, and Kendrick Perkins. Rondo was only slightly less magnificent than he's been all series and Davis turned in another solid game, but Perkins played the best game I've ever seen him play Tuesday night.

The big fella played more than 48 minutes without committing a foul, two statistics that should blow the mind of anyone at all familiar with Perk or his game. He had his lapses, such as when he failed to stop Derrick Rose on a drive that put Chicago up four with less than two minutes in regulation, but immediately made up for it, blocking a John Salmons jumper after a Rondo drive to preserve the one-possession deficit. Perkins anchored the defense with seven blocked shots, and did a number of other Kevin Garnett-like things throughout the night, diving on the floor for an early loose ball and hitting Rondo with a nifty assist on the pinch post play. Sixteen points, 19 rebounds, seven blocks in 48 minutes -- and Boston needed every one of them.

Quick things:

-Chicago is kicking and screaming about the lack of a flagrant foul call on Rondo with two seconds left in overtime. They are almost surely right, but it didn't necessarily take the game away from them. Brad Miller would have gone to the line for two shots and Chicago would have had the ball on the side, but Boston was still up two. Assuming that Miller would have missed the first free throw (as he did on the shooting foul), Chicago would have only had a shot to win the game - and with no timeout left to draw something up, it would have been a difficult shot. Ben Gordon has specialized in making difficult shots in this series, but let's not act that Chicago would have won but for the lack of the flagrant. And besides, the failure to whistle Rondo for the Flagrant-1 isn't any weirder than fouling Ray Allen out on a double foul call after he got tangled up with Miller on a (moving) screen by Miller.

-Tony Allen played down the stretch in Ray's place, and in just a few minutes, showed why he doesn't play those kind of minutes very often. Doc doesn't trust him, and with good reason. I had just gotten done explaining to a friend that Tony has a low basketball IQ, when he grabbed a rebound in traffic and threw it to the first white jersey he saw -- Kendrick Perkins, running upcourt. Outlet passes to seven-footers at midcourt don't usually end well; thankfully, Perk was able to make the catch under control and get the ball to a guard. It wasn't long thereafter that Tony then fouled Gordon on a very difficult three-point shot, sending Gordon to the line for three free throws that temporarily tied the game.

-Chicago bailed Boston out by putting John Salmons on Pierce down the stretch. Salmons is closer to Pierce's size than Kirk Hinrich, but Hinrich has done a fantastic job on Pierce this whole series. Boston would have had a speed mismatch on whoever Salmons would have been guarding, but it's not like Boston was going anywhere other than Pierce down the stretch.

-I did like Chicago's four guard lineup, with Gordon, Hinrich, Salmons, and Rose playing around a big man. Boston's counter of the starting five sets up a Davis-Salmons matchup. When you create a mismatch on offense, you end up exposing yourself to the same mismatch on defense. But this clearly favored Chicago. Davis can't stay in front of Salmons, and while Salmons gave up a lot of size on the other end, Big Baby doesn't create for himself all that well. Put it this way: Who would you rather bet on in a one-on-one game? The answer is Salmons, and I expect Chicago to do this again in Game 6.

Speaking of Game 6, it's Thursday, back in Chicago, at 7 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Chicago 121, Boston 118 (Double Overtime)

That was a lot of fun.

[recap] [box score]

One of the nice things about having won a title last year is that the pressure is off, to a certain extent. I'm not insinuating that the Celtics are playing with less urgency than last year or that a second straight championship banner would be any less special than the first. But having that ring changes the perspective on this year. (There is, of course, another obvious reason why expectations are lower, but I pledged to be positive in these pages and not mention it.)

The upshot of this is that even in defeat, we as fans can enjoy an instant classic like Sunday's loss. Last year at this time, we were tied at 2-2 with Atlanta and so worried about the prospect of not even getting out of the first round that we couldn't appreciate the moxie with which the young Hawks were playing. This time around, it's easier to appreciate the way these Bulls haven't backed down from the defending champs.

There are similarities between the last season's Hawks and this season's Bulls: both teams are young; both have at least one player who seems to relish the role of heels (Atlanta's Zaza Pachulia and Chicago's Joakim Noah); both have crazy-athletic power forwards waiting to fulfill their potential (though Josh Smith is much further along in his development than Tyrus Thomas); and both have flammable shooting guards who are proving very difficult for Boston to check (Joe Johnson last year; Ben Gordon this year). Atlanta was much better defensively -- I can't emphasize enough how bad Chicago is on that end of the floor -- but Chicago has Derrick Rose, whose precocious play in Games 1 and 4 -- though upstaged throughout the series by the brilliance of his Boston counterpart (and RwH namesake) Rajon Rondo -- has really made this series a treat to watch.

Just because this series has been fun, however, does not prevent some things from irriating me, and here I return to a familiar theme: This team relies far too much on Paul Pierce in the fourth quarter.

Trailining 96-93 with 16 seconds left, Doc Rivers drew up a play for Ray Allen, just as he did in Game 2 with the score tied at 115. And Allen, just as he did in Game 2, calmly knocked down the crucial shot.

Allen is one of the top two or three best three-point shooters in the history of the NBA. Having spent the majority of his career as his team's number-one offensive option, he is accustomed to taking big shots. Doc clearly trusts him with the ball with the game -- and as evinced by the isolation play called for Allen in the closing moments of Game 4 of last year's Finals, the season -- on the line. Why, then, can't we call Allen's number when the situation is anything less than urgent? A basket with five minutes left counts for just as many points as a basket with five seconds left.

Instead of looking for Allen, and instead of letting Rondo penetrate and get to the rim like he did over the first three quarters, Boston, throughout the fourth quarter and the bulk of the two overtimes, instead went back to isolating Pierce at the foul line. Four things made this play particularly inadvisable in this situation:

1) As early as the first few minutes of the third quarter, Pierce looked out of gas. He did end up scoring 11 points in that period, but that probably served to tire him out even more. Pierce has logged a ton of minutes this year, and one explanation for his average -- by his standards -- play thus far in the playoffs is that he's just running fumes.

2) Pierce was cold. He finished 9-of-24. I'd call it going to the well one too many times, but the expression doesn't seem apt when you come up empty more often than not.

3) Pierce wasn't getting any calls. In a very oddly officiated game that saw the refs all but swallow the whistles for the two extra periods, the officials seemed loathe to send last year's Finals MVP to the line more than was absolutely necessary. Several Pierce drives resulted in no-calls that you'd expect a player of his caliber to get, playoffs be damned. When Pierce isn't getting to the line, he isn't as effective.

4) Kirk Hinrich really did a phenomenal job making life difficult for Pierce. The play is predicated on setting up a mismatch for Pierce, but the Bulls seemed to have no qualms about leaving the smaller Hinrich on an island against him, and Hinrich responded with some really gritty D.

This loss is frustrating, because much like Game 1, this one was squarely within Boston's reach. The Celtics could have completed the sweep already, and could be sitting at home awaiting the winner of the Philadelphia-Orlando series (which, with three last-second finishes in four games, is giving Chicago-Boston a run for its money as the most compelling series of this playoff season). At the same time, however, Boston could be down 3-1, having needed some late-game heroics to win Game 2.

It's now a best-of-three. The two teams have already treated us to everything we could possibly ask for, but let's see if they have anything left for an encore.

Game 5 is Tuesday at 7 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Boston 107, Chicago 86

For the time being, all is right in the basketball universe.

[recap] [box score]

Boston regained homecourt advantage in its first-round series with Chicago in convincing fashion Thursday night, in a game that wasn't as close as even the 21-point margin indicates. There isn't much to say about a game like this, except that it revealed something we already knew: Boston is a better defensive team than they showed in the first two games of this series, and Chicago isn't. It's really as simple as that.

Quick notes: Rajon Rondo was carried off the floor by Bill Walker after the buzzer, but says it was just that the bottoms of his feet were sore; Brian Scalabrine returned to action; and there was heightened security in Chicago because of a death threat to Tony Allen.

Next game is Sunday at 1 pm Eastern on ABC.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

More Injury News: Rondo likely for Game 3; Scal back?

I'll let the Globe do the talking.

Coincidence that news that Scalabrine might be back soon comes the same day that we find out Powe is done for the year?

Leon Done

Torn ACL for Leon Powe.

The injuries to the frontcourt are becoming a huge problem. You may have heard that Kevin Garnett is out for the playoffs. And Brian Scalabrine still hasn't recovered from post-concussion syndrome. Losing Powe leaves Boston with three post players - Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis, and Mikki Moore. All three are extremely foul prone.

I still think Boston can beat Chicago with that group, because the Bulls just don't use their bigs very often. Orlando, of course, would be a different story.

Boston 118, Chicago 115

I'll admit, a little shamefully, that whiile I wasn't ready to give up, I was feeling pretty despondent at halftime of tonight's game.

[recap] [box score]

Boston was only down three, but consider what the Celtics had already lost: Kevin Garnett to a knee injury suffered before the playoffs; home court advantage in the series with Chicago in Game 1; Leon Powe to a knee injury early in the second quarter; and Rajon Rondo for the final five minutes of the first half, to an ankle injury that looked pretty bad. Ray Allen still hadn't broken out of his slump, Boston's already paper-thin front line had been reduced by one, and Rondo, the team's best offensive player through three halves of playoff basketball, wasn't sure to return.

But over the next 24 minutes, in stops and starts, the Celtics showed that if they weren't the same team that won the NBA title last year, they were still the defending champs -- defending champs that weren't going to go down without a fight. Allen caught fire, scoring 28 of his 30 points in the second half, including the game-winning three-pointer with two seconds left. Rondo gamely hobbled around on his bad wheel, a shadow of the player he was in the first quarter (when he helped send both Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich to the bench with foul trouble), finishing with 19 points, 12 rebounds, 16 assists, and five steals. Glen Davis and Kendrick Perkins contributed huge games of 26/9 and 16/12, respectively. And so, despite giving up 42 points to Ben Gordon and having 14 shots blocked on the other end, Boston pulled out a crucial victory.

Where the team goes from here is still up in the air. There's no word yet on Powe, but TNT reporter (and former RwH sports journalism professor) David Aldridge hinted from the sideline that it could be more than just a one-night thing. And while Rondo seemed to gain mobility as the second half wore on, that's not all that uncommon with ankle injuries. It's often easier to play on a sprained ankle the night you sprain it than it is a day or two later, when you've cooled down and it's had time to swell up.

Losing Powe would be a blow to an already thin frontline, but losing Rondo would be the death knell. He's been the team's best player in the first two games of the series, by a fairly wide margin.

A few tactical notes:

-Boston did a much better job of containing Rose tonight on the pick and roll. Rose is a bit easier to stop on this play than he will be a bit later in his career, for two reasons: 1) he'll probably develop a more consistent jumper; and 2) he's still kind of a reluctant scorer, which he'll presumably grow out of. He's not quite as bad as Rondo was his first couple of years, but he still wants to defer to his teammates. So the man hedging the pick and roll needn't necessarily "sell out" the way he might against a player who looks for his own shot. A quick show is often enough to spook Rose into picking up his dribble, or slow down just long enough for his defender to recover. The day will come when this won't work. Hopefully that day is sometime after this series.

-Fourteen blocked shots for Chicago, and 21 offensive rebounds for Boston. These statistics are related. The Bulls' young bigs, Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas, are so eager to register the highlight-reel rejection that they vacate their posts recklessly. Any shot they don't get has a great chance of being rebounded by Celtics on the weak side.

-Allen had a very tough time guarding Gordon, evoking memories of similar struggles checking Joe Johnson during last year's first-round series with Atlanta. While Gordon is a terrifyingly streaky shooter, in the mold of Vinnie "The Microwave" Johnson, his heating up isn't necessarily a bad thing. It's better, I think, than having Rose play the way he did in Game 1, for the simple reason that Gordon has never met a shot he didn't like, and no matter how hot he is, he can't hit everything. The shot he made to tie the game at 115 came over Allen and Davis, who had committed to the double and left a man open. It was a very tough shot, one Gordon should get all the credit for making, but it's also one I don't think Boston minds him taking.

-Tonight marked the second time in as many games that Bulls had the ball with under three seconds left needing a basket to either tie or win and didn't have a timeout to advance the ball to halfcourt. Rookie head coach Vinny Del Negro has come a long way in his first season on the bench, but in the NBA, unlike college, timeouts have a practical purpose other than resting players or drawing up plays. I'd be surprised if he gets caught without one in his back pocket again.

Game 3 is Thursday at 8 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Chicago 105, Boston 103 (Overtime)

Between his drive past Sasha Vujacic to cap the incredible Game 4 comeback and his seven three-pointers in the Finals clincher a few nights later, it's easy to forget what Ray Allen's postseason legacy last year might have been.

[recap] [box score]

After a decent series against Atlanta, Allen shot 20-for-61 in seven games against Cleveland. Had Paul Pierce not pulled the Celtics through with 41 points in his duel with LeBron James in Game 7 of that series, there might not have been any title, and the talk heading into this postseason would have focused on Allen looking to atone for his dismal shooting last May.

With Kevin Garnett probably out for the entirety of the postseason, Boston simply cannot afford a similarly prolonged slump during these playoffs. If the Celtics want to make it out of even the first round against Chicago, then Allen can't put up anything close to the 1-for-12 he had this afternoon. Allen's shots weren't even close today.

In fact, the only one of his eleven misses that looked good today was the last one, an 18-foot fadeaway from the right baseline that was just a touch long. It would have sent the game into double overtime, and you have to wonder about the play drawn up by the Celtics coaching staff. Inbounding underneath the basket with less than four seconds left, option one was Leon Powe cutting to the basket, and option two was Allen coming off a screen. There was no option three, as far as I could tell. Kendrick Perkins was the safety release, for Rajon Rondo inbounding the ball, and Pierce -- Paul Pierce! -- basically just stood at the top of the key.

The decision to leave Pierce completely out of the play -- he wasn't a "decoy" because in order to be a decoy, you need to at least make the defense respond to you -- is all the more puzzling considering that over the last eight minutes or so of game time, Boston apparently decided that the only way they were winning this game was on Pierce's back, despite Pierce being relatively cold from the field. Without Garnett, defenses can key on Pierce more, and Boston is going to have to get comfortable going to other sources of offense.

Heck, Chicago did it. After rookie point guard Derrick Rose dazzled for much of the game and sharpshooter Ben Gordon awoke for the fourth quarter, it was Tyrus Thomas who ultimately provided the biggest baskets. Thomas hit three jumpers of at least 14 feet in the overtime, missing a fourth that would have put the game away with about ten seconds left.

The Celtics had options besides Pierce, even with Allen struggling. Rondo was nearly as good as Rose all afternoon, and even Kendrick Perkins was 7-for-11, overpowering Joakim Noah inside. Is it easy to call Perk's number down the stretch? Does his name easily come to mind as the guy to get the ball to? No and no. But Boston is not long for these playoffs if Pierce has to win every game on his own.

Despite all of this, Boston had a real shot to win this game, if any one of a number of little things had gone their way:

-After Rondo put Boston up by one with 22 seconds left, Boston forced Gordon into an incredibly difficult shot. Rondo had a bead on the loose ball rebound, but couldn't corral it, and Chicago eventually scored on the possession. Coming up with that ball -- on a play that reminded me of Pierce's diving recovery and timeout against Cleveland in the closing seconds of Game 7 last year -- would have put Boston in a commanding position.

-On the next trip down, Pierce dribbled right off of a screen and went up for the game-winner from about 17 feet, only to have Noah clobber him, an incredibly silly and aggressive foul at that stage. Pierce drained the first free throw to tie it, but got unlucky on the second, the ball going in and out. There were 2.6 seconds left and the Bulls had no timeouts remaining and therefore couldn't have advanced the ball to midcourt. A make would have almost certainly equaled victory.

-After Glen Davis put Boston up two to start the overtime, Gordon came up well short on a jumper, and Perkins fired a long pass to Allen breaking toward the basket. Instead of a layup or at least a trip to the free throw line, Allen lost the ball out of bounds. There was plenty of time left, but a two-possession lead in overtime is huge, both psychologically and on the scoreboard.

-Thomas hit a jumper after that turnover, and then Rose picked up his fifth foul on the next Boston possession. After a Pierce miss and a John Salmons bucket that gave Chicago the lead, Pierce ran a pick-and-roll with Rondo, leaving Rose matched up with Pierce. Pierce worked his way into the lane and pumpfaked, getting Rose in the air. This is a classic Pierce move, and all he needed to do was go up for the shot, leaning in ever so slightly, and Rose would have clobbered him, his sixth and disqualifying foul. Instead, Pierce passed to Perkins. Perk made the layup, but it might have been a different outcome if Rose had had to sit. Rose didn't go crazy in the last few minutes, but Thomas was able to get open for his jumpers in large part because the Celtics' defense was so focused on Rose.

-Rose eventually did foul out, on Boston's last possession. He got whistled for grabbing Rondo on a nifty misdirection play that Doc drew up. Chicago had one to give (Pierce would later drive and have it knocked out of bounds, leading to the Allen miss on the inbounds play), but Rose wasn't trying to give it, it was kind of a ticky-tack call, and Rondo had an open layup. Would have rather had the bucket there.

Anyway, Monday at 7 p.m. Eastern on TNT becomes a must-win. Objectives: Find a way to slow Rose; get Ray going; and play Powe more and Davis less (wishful thinking).

Friday, April 17, 2009

NBA Playoff Predictions

My buddy Kevin, one of several great Lakers fans I've met since moving out here (they get a bad rap as a group, but my experience has been that the true fans of the Lakers are just as good as those of the Celtics -- they just can't afford to go to games), issued me a challenge today: Predict the results of each playoff series, from the first round to the Finals, including the number of games each series will last. Here are his picks. He knows the West a lot better than I do, and in contrast to me, he's taking the chalk.

EAST

First Round
-#1 Cleveland over #8 Detroit (4-0) - It feels wrong to predict that the Pistons, who have made the Eastern Conference finals in each of the last six years, will be swept in the first round, but this is Detroit squad is a skeleton of recent vintages.
-#5 Miami over #4 Atlanta (4-2) - It takes a lot to beat Dwyane Wade in a playoff series. The Hawks have a lot of talent, but they also have a lot of issues: attitude, focus, defense.
-#2 Boston over #7 Chicago (4-1) - Boston comes out inspired to win without Garnett; Chicago's defensive shortcomings will be their undoing.
-#3 Orlando over #6 Philadelphia (4-3) - Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis are banged up; it's hard to trust jump-shooting teams in a seven-game series; and the Sixers have been here before.

Eastern Conference Semifinals
-#1 Cleveland over #5 Miami (4-1) - This could easily be a sweep, or it could go seven games if the league decides it wants two weeks of LeBron vs. Wade (just kidding). I'll split the difference and give the Heat one in Miami.
-#2 Boston over #3 Orlando (4-3) - Home court advantage makes the difference as the media and fans start to believe the Celtics can defend the title without KG...

Eastern Conference Finals
-#1 Cleveland over #2 Boston (4-1)...Uh, no.

WEST

First Round
-#1 Los Angeles over #8 Utah (4-1) - The Jazz are best where the Lakers are worst, but Deron Williams isn't enough to overcome LA's depth. Utah gets one at home, where they are very tough to beat.
-#5 Houston over #4 Portland (4-3) - Only because of the irony of the Rockets advancing without Tracy McGrady.
-#7 New Orleans over #2 Denver (4-2) - There's no way the Nuggets are the second-best team in the West.
-#6 Dallas over #3 San Antonio (4-3) - I'm really worried about picking the Spurs to lose at home in a Game 7, but Dallas is a sleeper and without Ginobili, aging San Antonio falls a little bit short.

Western Conference Semifinals
-#1 Los Angeles over #5 Houston (4-0) - Maybe I shouldn't have picked the Rockets over the Blazers after all.
-#7 New Orleans over #6 Dallas (4-2) - The postseason legend of Chris Paul, begun last season, picks up steam this year.

Western Conference Finals
-#1 Los Angeles over #7 New Orleans (4-1) - One, love, one on the way through the West should show just how good these Lakers are.

The NBA Finals
-#1b Los Angeles over #1a Cleveland (4-3) - A lot of people are treating this season as the coronation of King James, and winning a Game 7 in Cleveland, where the Cavs are 39-2 this year, is a big ask. But there's a certain order to the basketball universe, a cosmology that will be thrown out of balance if LeBron gets his first before Kobe gets his without Shaq.

(If you're not inclined to accept this metaphysical explanation, keep in mind that the only team to really beat the Cavs at home -- Philly did it in overtime on the last day of the season with James, Mo Williams, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas on the Cleveland bench -- was L.A.)

The KG Post

(I'm a day late in posting this. I was busy when I found out about KG's injury, despondent when I became less busy, and into my third hour at a bar in Santa Monica when I became less despondent.)

Last June 5, I stood in relative silence in Section 327 of the TD Banknorth Boston Garden. It was the third quarter of Game 1 of the NBA Finals, and moments earlier, Paul Pierce had been carried off the court with an apparent knee injury. I turned to my friend standing next to me and asked, even though I already knew the answer, "We can't win without him, can we?" -- meaning the series, not necessarily the game. My friend just shook his head. Seconds later, I received a text message from another friend, this one watching at home, with information from the telecast we couldn't get in person: "Pierce in wheelchair in tunnel." I held my phone out so that my buddies in attendance could read the bad news, then snapped it shut.

My mood was, essentially, disbelief. I remember thinking, though I can't recall if I said it out loud, "I can't believe we came this far only to have this happen." I have only spotty recollection of the 1980s championship teams, and the franchise had what could be most charitably described as intermittent success during my formative years as a basketball fan. This was supposed to be a different year thanks to the arrival of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, a chain of events set off by the Celtics getting "unlucky" in the draft lottery that was supposed to land them Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. From that moment, Boston had traded for a couple of All-Stars just starting to lose their footing at the peak of their careers, mortgaging the future for a three-year window to get get as many rings as possible.

Four wins away from that first ring, and Pierce goes down.

Of course, that story had a happy ending. Pierce came back just a few minutes later, hit two big three-pointers, and Boston won that game and the series in six.

I bring this up because, if not for last year, that's the feeling I would have had when I woke up Thursday morning and saw the news of Garnett's injury in my inbox. It still stings a lot to know that our title defense is basically over, but it's a little bit easier because of the championship banner hanging in the rafters from last year.

And yes, I said that our title defense is over. I'm going to say this once, then get into rah-rah mode for the rest of the playoffs and try to find a reason why I'm wrong. Here it is, though: Absent injuries to LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, we have no chance of beating Cleveland or Los Angeles in a seven-game series without Kevin Garnett. None.

I'm disappointed, but I don't feel blindsided. I've hinted here that I was worried about Garnett's knee, and I think deep down I was more worried than I let on, that I knew this was a real possibility even if I wouldn't admit it to myself. It was just too weird, the way KG sat and then came back briefly, then sat again. Doc Rivers used the phrase "shut down" in announcing that Garnett wouldn't play for a while, and while it may have been poor word choice, it may have been a little bit of the truth leaking out. Then came the announcement that Garnett would practice this past Monday, not play Tuesday against Philadelphia, but play the season finale on Wednesday against Washington, followed quickly by another story that said he wouldn't play in either game.

I actually noticed something during the Philly game that maybe hinted at this. During the TNT broadcast, they showed Pierce ripping into the reserves for lack of focus and lackluster play, a role filled by Garnett since his arrival in Boston. It's not really in Pierce's nature to do that -- though it's more his nature than it is Ray Allen's -- but he did it, even in a game that was essentially meaningless for the team.

I haven't had a chance to read all the stories, so I can't say for sure, but I haven't heard anything that suggests the players had known about this and kept quiet. It's certainly possible, though. It also could be that Garnett had confided in Pierce that his recovery wasn't going smoothly. Or maybe Pierce just had a hunch.

Either way, if the Celtics are going to win the title, they'll almost certainly have to do it without Garnett. (It's theoretically possible that he could come back. Information from the team about the injury has been scarce throughout this ordeal, and the current report is that he's actually suffering from two injuries: a bone spur that will be likely be surgically removed in the offseason; and a strained tendon that will only heal with rest. Rivers says it's the tendon that's keeping Garnett out, so if that heals, he could come back -- though Rivers was quick to caution that KG's return this season is unlikely). Boston should still be able to handle Chicago in the first round without too much difficulty, and I still think they can squeeze by Orlando in the second round if it comes to that, no surprise given I've been down on the Magic all year. (ESPN's John Hollinger's statistical analysis agrees with these prospects.)

Ironically for a team that finds itself very thin heading into a grueling postseason that potentially will last about two months, it may be that the longer their playoff series', the better. More games means more time for KG to get healthy, or healthyish, which is the only shot at a repeat.

The playoffs start tomorrow, at 12:30 Eastern on ESPN, with Game 1 against Chicago in Boston.

RwH extends our best wishes to Celtics GM Danny Ainge, who suffered a mild heart attack on Thursday. Reports are that Ainge should be fine, though he'll miss at least the first and probably the second game of the Chicago series. Thank goodness. Get well soon, Danny.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Boston 100, Philadelphia 98

[recap] [box score]

Last time I posted, I gave a couple of reasons why I'd rather play Chicago than Philadelphia in the first round of the playoffs: Philly's playoff experience, and Chicago's lack of defense. Watching tonight's win over the Sixers, I thought of three more:

1. I hate the Sixers. Reggie Evans is one of my two or three least favorite NBA players, and rookie Marreese Speights seems to be following in his footsteps as a first-rate punk. Throw in Philadelphia sports fans, as a group the most obnoxious of any city, and there's not a whole lot to like. Any loss to them is liable to ruin my evening.

2. I want to watch Derrick Rose. I'm in law school, and final exams are coming up, and I only have time to watch the Celtics' playoff games, at least until exams are over. Watching Rose over a best-of-seven series would be great. But I'm not going to get that chance, at least not this year, because...

3. ...Chicago can't beat Orlando in a playoff series. Philly can, but Chicago can't. Although Orlando doesn't scare me too much, it'd be nice to not have to worry about them.

I probably won't get my wish, however, because tonight's win means that Chicago only has to beat Toronto Wednesday night in order to get the #6 seed. (A Philly loss at Cleveland would similarly do the trick).

On the other hand, I shouldn't be too disappointed, because the Celtics just beat the Sixers despite not having Kevin Garnett or Ray Allen. The only active member of the so-called Big Three, Paul Pierce, certainly led this victory, with 31 points in 31 minutes, but he didn't do it on his own. He got plenty of help, including ten points and four rebounds from Leon Powe in his return after missing 12 games with an injury. Tony Allen took over for Ray Allen and scored 18 points, and Glen Davis continued a recent stretch of big statistical games.

Final game of the regular season in Wednesday night, against Washington.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Cleveland A Lot, Boston A Little

I didn't even bother watching Sunday's bloodbath in Cleveland. A great final round of the Masters was underway, and with the score 31-9 after the first period, I couldn't justify it. The skirmish between Ray Allen and Anderson Varejao was of mild interest (and which will cost Allen one game), and it sounded like Cleveland did some flexing that wasn't unnoticed on the Boston bench. At any rate, it's not something I'm too worried about.

I'm still worried about Kevin Garnett, with the news that he won't play tonight vs. Philadelphia or Wednesday vs. Washington. The way his return has been aborted and then continually pushed back just makes me feel uneasy.

Speaking of tonight's game in Philly, the result could have serious implications for who Boston plays in the first round. The Sixers are currently a half-game back of Chicago for sixth place, meaning they'd face Boston if the playoffs started today. Should the Sixers and Bulls end up with the same record, however, Philadelphia has the tiebreaker by virture of a slightly better conference record (the teams split four matchups during the regular season). A Philly win tonight means they control their own destiny on Wednesday at Cleveland (the Cavs have already clinched homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs); a loss and Chicago can claim the #6 seed (and a first-round playoff series with the banged-up Orlando Magic).

As I've previously mentioned, I'd rather play Chicago in a first round series. The Sixers have some recent playoff experience and actually play a little defense, two things that don't describe the Bulls. I'm not saying that we should or will go out and try to lose, but keeping the starters' minutes down at the expense of a loss tonight wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Celtics Clinch #2 Seed

Orlando, playing without Rashard Lewis, lost to Devin Harris-less New Jersey 103-93 Saturday night. The top four seeds are set: #1 Cleveland; #2 Boston; #3 Orlando; #4 Atlanta.

The bottom four seeds are not set, however. We know the four teams that will fill them, but just how Philadelphia, Miami, Chicago, and Detroit will shake out is still very much up in the air. The seventh seed is the one Boston cares most about, as that team will be the first-round opponent.

Through Saturday's games, Chicago held a one-game lead on that spot over Detroit, which hosts the Bulls on Monday night. But Philadelphia is just a half-game up on Chicago for the six, and the various permutations just aren't worth working through at this point. Of these four teams, though, Chicago is the one that worries me the least.

Boston 105, Miami 98

The Celtics were once again a little shaky in the fourth, but made the necessary plays in the final minutes and won their sixth straight.

[recap] [box score]

Cleveland's win over Philadelphia clinched home court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs (and LA's loss at Portland gives them a leg up on securing homecourt for the Finals, should they get there). However, Boston's win combined with Orlando's surprising loss to New York in the Magic Kingdom gave the Celtics a leg up on the second seed in the East. Boston leads Orlando by two games, and if I understand my tiebreakers correctly, the "magic number" is one: Any Boston win or Orlando loss in the season's final three games gives Boston the #2.

Next game is Sunday, Cleveland, at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC. I have a feeling that Doc Rivers is going to play this game down, as he has with any "big" matchup all year -- for Doc, all regular season games are worth the same. I think that's probably the smart play, particularly in this case. The Celtics likely won't need the game for seeding purposes. It's best not to over-extend this late in the season, and there's some psychological risk in going all-out in this game and not quite getting there. On the other hand, a victory, on Cleveland's home floor, without Kevin Garnett, could be damaging to the Cavs, especially if the Celtics are treating it like any other game. The Cavs have been nearly invincible at home, losing only to the Lakers so far, and realizing their own basketball mortality might have a negative impact.

Or it might not. I'm grasping at straws a bit. Cleveland's really good this year.

Speaking of Garnett, the word is that he'll play in the season finale on Wednesday.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Boston 106, New Jersey 104

A little slow posting this one from Wednesday night because I've been really busy this week.

[recap] [box score]

Beating the Nets is no great accomplishment, but it is an important one, as Orlando is still hot on Boston's heels for the second spot in the East as the season's final week approaches.

The good: 31/5/9 from Rajon Rondo; 15 bench points from Eddie House; nine and nine from Mikki Moore; four points and five assists from Stephon Marbury in his best all-around game as a Celtic.

The bad: A 31-point first quarter by the Nets; an inconsistent defensive effort all night; and two poor trips up-and-down in the final minute that gave the Nets a shot to win after having trailed 106-99.

Next game is Friday night, at home against Miami (no national TV).

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Boston 104, Atlanta 92

So much for the Hawks.

[recap] [box score]

After a young Atlanta took the eventual world champs to seven games in the first round of last year's playoffs, the Hawks were lauded as up-and-comers in the East. And while they still have a pretty good hold on the fourth seed and thus a first-round playoff series at home, they hardly seem like a team that can challenge any of the Eastern conference's best three teams when the playoffs begin in a couple weeks.

Friday night's win over the brooding Hawks marked a season sweep for the Celtics, and came (again) without the services of Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe. The final margin was only 12 points, but it got to 20 in the fourth quarter, and it was the kind of game where the outcome never seemed in doubt in the second half.

Major credit goes to our undermanned frontcourt. Our three frontcourt players had great games: 12 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 blocks for Kendrick Perkins; 19 points for Glen Davis; 9 points and 6 boards off the bench for Mikki Moore. These guys played Al Horford and Josh Smith to a stalemate, and Perk anchored a defense that held Atlanta to 35.6 percent shooting. Defensively, let's also give some credit to Ray Allen, who did a great job of checking Joe Johnson. Johnson, you may recall, gave the Celtics all sorts of problems in last year's postseason.

Four days off now until our next game on Wednesday against New Jersey. The peculiarities of the NBA schedule give us a very light slate the rest of the way. So while the other teams are beating each other up, we can rest a little bit and try to get everyone healthy.

Speaking of "beating each other up," third-place Orlando clobbered first-place Cleveland on national TV last night, the kind of loss that made the Cavs, now losers of two straight after a franchise-best 13 consectuive wins, seem mortal in a way they hadn't before. The Cavs still have a vise grip on the Eastern Conference's top seed, so Boston would actually like to see Orlando losing more down the stretch than Cleveland.

Speaking of the playoffs, I've been thinking for a while now that with Detroit's struggles this season, the Celtics might have to go through Detroit, Orlando, and Cleveland to reach the Finals, quite a gauntlet. This group of Pistons have a championship ring, have gone to six consecutive Eastern Conference finals, and now have Allen Iverson, the kind of player you never want to go against in a playoff series.

Or, I should say, had Allen Iverson. The Pistons announced yesterday that Iverson would miss the rest of the season with his back injury, though there's plenty of speculation that The Answer's discontent at coming off of the bench played a role in this decision. Whatever the reason, Detroit now induces less fear, and Boston may not even have to worry about them; Saturday's loss to Philadelphia (in which the Sixers clinched a playoff spot) put the Pistons in eighth place in the East, half a game back of Chicago and two ahead of Charlotte.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Boston 111, Charlotte 109 (2OT)

Strange game.

[recap] [box score] [I'm no longer linking highlights because the Yahoo! stories now have a highlights link]

I've been trying to come up with a real-life analogy for this victory, something I could point to help those who didn't see the game relate to it, but all I could come up with is "Have you ever won a basketball game you had no business winning?" and I'm not sure that's very applicable to the RwH audience.

The Celtics did almost nothing right against the Bobcats. They essentially mailed in the first and third quarters. They committed 24 turnovers, a big chunk of those coming in regulation. They allowed 20 offensive rebounds, including three in a row in the first overtime, which resulted in an 85-second possession and three-point lead for the Bobcats. I don't know how Boston won this game.

I really don't, actually, because I was watching online, and my Internet connection kicked out for a bit with us down 93-87 with around two minutes to go. By the time I got it back, Rajon Rondo was headed to the line with 27 seconds left down 93-91. The 64 percent free throw shooter drained them both.

Overtime belonged to Ray Allen, who hit three three-pointers in the two extra periods, including one that tied it up at the end of the first OT after that long Charlotte possession, and the game-winner with two seconds left in the second OT. Both those shots came right in the eyes of Charlotte's Gerald Wallace, a player I generally like but who was getting on my nerves last night because of his acting on the defensive end, drawing offensive fouls away from the ball.

Even to the very end, Boston tried to lose this game. Charlotte's Raja Bell had a great look at the game-winner, mainly because Allen, who was guarding Bell, the inbounder, turned his head to look at the pass, then got his clock cleaned by a screen as the ball was kicked back out to Bell. Every basketball fan knows that the most dangerous guy on the floor in those spots is the inbounder, and Allen temporarily forgot that.

Anyway, a win is a win, and there are a couple of additional good things to take out of this win in particular. For starters, it did not come on the back of Paul Pierce, as so many of Boston's comeback wins do. Pierce was oustanding through three quarters, scoring 28 points, and made a great pass on Allen's game-winner, but he only had four points in the final 22 minutes of game time. Kevin Garnett is fond of referring to Pierce as Superman, but this game was won by a bunch of Robins in green-and-white.

I know that Robin is Batman's sidekick, but Superman, as far as I can remember, didn't have one.

The second good thing to come out of yesterday is that Boston's back in second place in the East, thanks to Orlando's 99-95 home loss to Toronto, and therefore back to homecourt advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

On to more pressing matters. You've probably heard this, but Garnett didn't play last night, and won't for the rest of the homestand. His knee is still sore and isn't responding the way they thought it would. Doc Rivers has spoken of "shutting him down," causing all Celtics' fans hearts to skip a beat, but it's just unfortunate word choice and they expect him to be back and healthy for the first game of the playoffs.

At one point during last night's telecast, they interviewed Danny Ainge, and Ainge made the point that when Garnett came back briefly, he played well, and that resting him now is more about making sure Garnett is healthy than it is about Garnett being able to contribute. The implication, it seems, is that if this were the playoffs, KG would be out there.

Still, this makes me uneasy. I'm getting tired of Adrian Wojnarowski's constant pot-stirring (he's been in the news recently for alleging recruiting violations at UConn and the general tenor of many columns this season seems designed to drum up controversy), but this, minus the overly dramatic language, sums up how I feel. I'm very nervous.