Sunday afternoon, the Celtics beat the Miami Heat 100-98, hanging on at home in double overtime. In so doing, they snapped a horrific six-game losing streak that involved dropping three games to sub-.500 teams (including two blowouts), two tough-luck losses to playoff squads (the Bulls and Knicks), and, most recently, a blown 27-point lead in a double overtime loss to the Hawks. This stretch, which followed a six-game winning streak, left Boston at 20-23 heading into the game with Miami, their grip on the eighth and final playoff spot seemingly loosening every day.
Given the above, the cynic would read the title of this post and chide me for being a more than a little bit late.
As I've said before, however, I refused to write off Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, and Doc Rivers. I acknowledged that the team's chances of making any noise in the playoffs were slim, but after last season, I wasn't going to rule anything out. Even with Pierce's noticeable decline, Garnett's ever-limited minutes, Rondo's general moodiness, and the inability of the restructured supporting cast to provide any sort of consistent contribution, I thought that those four guys were capable of pulling it all together again and making a run.
The Big Three, of course, had morphed into the Big Four by the time Ray Allen left, and none of those guys is Bigger, in terms of Boston's success, than Rondo. So when news broke around halftime of the Miami game that the hyperextended knee keeping him on the sideline was actually a torn ACL, ending his season and probably ensuring that he wouldn't be ready for the start of the next one, whatever hope I had of something like last year repeating itself disappeared. Doc said after the game that he's not writing the obituary yet, but everyone outside that locker room is.
It's going to be an interesting, rumor-filled couple of weeks around the Celtics. With Rondo out, Boston probably isn't a favorite to even make the playoffs. And because of that, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce become expendable. Garnett has been terrific this year, but on even more limited minutes than last year, and Pierce has declined noticeably. (Even as Pierce, who has been mired in a terrible slump, nailed the game's biggest shot in double OT, he almost cost us the game with a late turnover and an inexplicably late contest on Lebron James' game-tying three at the end of regulation.) The revamped supporting cast, saddled with Jeff Green's albatross of a contract, has disappointed, and the lone bright spot among the new faces, Jared Sullinger, has been balanced out by the mysterious dropoff of Brandon Bass. Keeping Garnett and Pierce around makes very little basketball sense.
Whether Danny Ainge can get anything for either is an open question. Garnett apparently has a no-trade clause, and it wouldn't surprise me if he refused to be moved. (Maybe I'm being naive.) And Pierce shouldn't bring that much in a trade at his salary and level of performance, although I have been surprised at the trade ideas I have read from people I respect (perhaps I'm underestimating his value). Danny has to kick the tires on those guys, though.
Oddly, all of this made Sunday's win all the more satisfying. I've been fortunate to have learned about sports and life from a number of people who taught me to appreciate the fight as much as the success. That's why I'm as proud of Game 7 of the 2010 Finals and the whole Miami series last year as I am of the championship run in 2008. Watching those guys -- who apparently didn't know of the severity of Rondo's injury until after the game -- fight to pull out the win against a better team was made that much more important by the fact that it may be the last time we see them do exactly that.
There's a part of me -- and it's not the rational part of me -- that doesn't want to see Danny do what undoubtedly should be done. There's a part of me that wants to see Pierce and KG retire as Celtics even though it'll likely set any rebuilding we try to do back a bit.
The reality is that only a few teams each season legitimately playing for a championship. For the first time in a while, we're not one of them -- and it's likely to be a while before we are again. The stakes, undoubtedly, have changed. But it's the same game. And so if Doc and Danny and Paul and Kevin decide they want to put up the same fight, I won't be too mad.
Showing posts with label Danny Ainge. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Danny Ainge. Show all posts
Monday, January 28, 2013
Monday, January 16, 2012
This Could Be a Very Important Week for the Celtics
Three games, four nights, three losses. After losing at home to the Bulls on Friday, in Indy to the Pacers on Saturday, and at home to the Thunder on Monday, the Celtics are now 4-8, having lost five straight for the first time in the Big Three era.
There were signs of life on Monday, to be sure, as Boston hung with a young Oklahoma City squad, currently the holders of the best record in the NBA. Paul Pierce looked more like his old self than he has at any point during this young season, and for the first time in a while, the Celtics put in a respectable performance on the glass and seemed to get most of the loose balls. Ultimately, turnovers and an inability to capitalize offensively down the stretch did the Celtics in, the same way they were done in against Chicago when they overcame a horrible-shooting first half to cut a 20-point lead to one, only to see their chance to take the lead rim out. Turnovers, an ability to score, and somelucky skillful...nah, let's go with lucky, three-point shooting from Russell Westbrook.
As the title of this post suggests, I think the next six days could dictate the future of the Celtics franchise. That may seem a bit strange, given that the next three teams on the schedule are the 4-10 Raptors, the 4-8 Suns, and the 1-12 Wizards. Here, however, is my completely unsubstantiated and probably untestable hypothesis.
Last week, after the loss to the Mavs, someone asked Danny Ainge if the Celtics were too old. His answer was non-committal, but he did throw this in: "I'm committed to the guys as long as they're going to perform, but they've got to perform. They've got to show they have an opportunity to win. Otherwise, I've got to at least make an effort to go in another direction."
Ainge certainly isn't the only person to give the Celtics a far-from-ringing endorsement -- something the players deserve with their performance thus far. In a post-game interview last Wednesday, Dallas' Jason Terry said, in so many words, that the Cs were too old to compete at a high level in the NBA. At halftime of the Bulls telecast on Friday, the EPSN studio crew wrote Boston off, announcing the physical decline of Pierce in the process. And there's been plenty of talk in the blogosphere about Ainge blowing it up -- selling off the veterans with an eye towards building a new contender.
What's this got to do with Toronto, Phoenix, and Washington?
It's just a hunch, but I think that if the Celtics can't win these upcoming games -- or at least two of the three -- Ainge will have his answer to whether his team has an opportunity to win. At least, he'll have that answer in his mind, and that's all that matters.
We can talk all we want about Pierce and Garnett playing themselves into shape and giving the new bench guys time to gel. By the end of this week, the season will be a month old, and all the other teams off to slow starts will have righted the ship. Boston's schedule isn't getting any easier -- seven of their games so far have been at home, and the games against the Raps and Suns are also on the parquet. Boston has also already had a four-day break, a rare luxury in this condensed season. In contrast, they've got a five-game road trip coming up in February, an eight-games-in-thirteen-nights roadie in March, and a road back-to-back-to-back looming in the middle of April. If the Celtics can't beat the Raptors, Suns, and Wizards, then the Celtics' ability to even make the playoffs would be in doubt -- and I guarantee that simply making the playoffs is not what Ainge had in mind when he talked about the "opportunity to win."
I'm not saying that "blowing it up" is necessarily the smart move. Kevin Garnett's physical decline and price tag for this year make it unlikely Ainge could fetch much of value for him -- he'd probably be more valuable as an expiring deal. Pierce's age and slow start to the season are likely to make potential buyers wary, as he's scheduled to make a combined $32 million in 2012-13 and 2013-2014 -- and trading the Captain would likely incite a riot among the team's fan base. And Boston's early struggles have only served to confirm what many have long asserted about Rajon R-ndo -- that's he's not a point guard you can build a team around. Ainge could get something for him, but he's not at the peak of his value at the moment. Ray Allen, an expiring contract who has performed well thus far, probably would bring in something, but nothing to build a dynasty around.
There's also a third option, an alternative to "put up or shut up," where Ainge patiently waits for the team to play better (this is going to happen, by the way; it's just not possible for us to continue to miss as many open shots as we have so far), then pulls the chair out from under everyone at the trade deadline by shipping out Rondo and the veterans. This possibility, rather unpleasant to stomach though it may be, is probably the smart play for Ainge -- wait for everyone's stock to bounce back, rather than sell low. But that's something to worry about in March.
For my part, I think the team is going to improve. We're going to start hitting some shots, Doc will (hopefully) settle on a bench rotation, and our conditioning will continue to improve. At this point, my expectations are low -- I want to make the playoffs and make a little noise there, though I reserve the right to later talk myself into how we can win a championship (one of the privileges of being a fan). But I can't argue with anyone who says the Celtics are done, and I don't think anyone will be able to convince Ainge otherwise, either, once he makes up his mind.
Here's hoping that's not this weekend.
There were signs of life on Monday, to be sure, as Boston hung with a young Oklahoma City squad, currently the holders of the best record in the NBA. Paul Pierce looked more like his old self than he has at any point during this young season, and for the first time in a while, the Celtics put in a respectable performance on the glass and seemed to get most of the loose balls. Ultimately, turnovers and an inability to capitalize offensively down the stretch did the Celtics in, the same way they were done in against Chicago when they overcame a horrible-shooting first half to cut a 20-point lead to one, only to see their chance to take the lead rim out. Turnovers, an ability to score, and some
As the title of this post suggests, I think the next six days could dictate the future of the Celtics franchise. That may seem a bit strange, given that the next three teams on the schedule are the 4-10 Raptors, the 4-8 Suns, and the 1-12 Wizards. Here, however, is my completely unsubstantiated and probably untestable hypothesis.
Last week, after the loss to the Mavs, someone asked Danny Ainge if the Celtics were too old. His answer was non-committal, but he did throw this in: "I'm committed to the guys as long as they're going to perform, but they've got to perform. They've got to show they have an opportunity to win. Otherwise, I've got to at least make an effort to go in another direction."
Ainge certainly isn't the only person to give the Celtics a far-from-ringing endorsement -- something the players deserve with their performance thus far. In a post-game interview last Wednesday, Dallas' Jason Terry said, in so many words, that the Cs were too old to compete at a high level in the NBA. At halftime of the Bulls telecast on Friday, the EPSN studio crew wrote Boston off, announcing the physical decline of Pierce in the process. And there's been plenty of talk in the blogosphere about Ainge blowing it up -- selling off the veterans with an eye towards building a new contender.
What's this got to do with Toronto, Phoenix, and Washington?
It's just a hunch, but I think that if the Celtics can't win these upcoming games -- or at least two of the three -- Ainge will have his answer to whether his team has an opportunity to win. At least, he'll have that answer in his mind, and that's all that matters.
We can talk all we want about Pierce and Garnett playing themselves into shape and giving the new bench guys time to gel. By the end of this week, the season will be a month old, and all the other teams off to slow starts will have righted the ship. Boston's schedule isn't getting any easier -- seven of their games so far have been at home, and the games against the Raps and Suns are also on the parquet. Boston has also already had a four-day break, a rare luxury in this condensed season. In contrast, they've got a five-game road trip coming up in February, an eight-games-in-thirteen-nights roadie in March, and a road back-to-back-to-back looming in the middle of April. If the Celtics can't beat the Raptors, Suns, and Wizards, then the Celtics' ability to even make the playoffs would be in doubt -- and I guarantee that simply making the playoffs is not what Ainge had in mind when he talked about the "opportunity to win."
I'm not saying that "blowing it up" is necessarily the smart move. Kevin Garnett's physical decline and price tag for this year make it unlikely Ainge could fetch much of value for him -- he'd probably be more valuable as an expiring deal. Pierce's age and slow start to the season are likely to make potential buyers wary, as he's scheduled to make a combined $32 million in 2012-13 and 2013-2014 -- and trading the Captain would likely incite a riot among the team's fan base. And Boston's early struggles have only served to confirm what many have long asserted about Rajon R-ndo -- that's he's not a point guard you can build a team around. Ainge could get something for him, but he's not at the peak of his value at the moment. Ray Allen, an expiring contract who has performed well thus far, probably would bring in something, but nothing to build a dynasty around.
There's also a third option, an alternative to "put up or shut up," where Ainge patiently waits for the team to play better (this is going to happen, by the way; it's just not possible for us to continue to miss as many open shots as we have so far), then pulls the chair out from under everyone at the trade deadline by shipping out Rondo and the veterans. This possibility, rather unpleasant to stomach though it may be, is probably the smart play for Ainge -- wait for everyone's stock to bounce back, rather than sell low. But that's something to worry about in March.
For my part, I think the team is going to improve. We're going to start hitting some shots, Doc will (hopefully) settle on a bench rotation, and our conditioning will continue to improve. At this point, my expectations are low -- I want to make the playoffs and make a little noise there, though I reserve the right to later talk myself into how we can win a championship (one of the privileges of being a fan). But I can't argue with anyone who says the Celtics are done, and I don't think anyone will be able to convince Ainge otherwise, either, once he makes up his mind.
Here's hoping that's not this weekend.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Why the Trade Rumors Don't Worry Me
As I'm sure you've heard, the NBA is back, baby, with the season set to open on Christmas Day. And no sooner than we digested that news along with our Thanksgiving leftovers did we receive the first real indication of basketball season: The annual Rajon Rondo trade rumor mill.
This year's iteration is Rondo for New Orleans' Chris Paul, a free agent next summer who is looking to join his own super-team to compete with the Unholy Trinity in Miami. And although those talks seem more or less dead as of this writing (Paul reportedly won't agree to sign an extension with the Celtics), enough has been made of it over the past 24 hours that it's worth a discussion.
Given my overall opinion of the guy, what I'm about to say borders on heresy, but here goes: Rondo for Paul is a no-brainer, slam dunk for the Cs. This isn't a novel statement -- you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who disagrees. As much as I love Rondo and think Paul is kind of a punk, there's no question that CP3 opens up more possibilities for a franchise, both this year and moving forward, than #9 does.
Danny Ainge knows this. That's why he proposed the deal. And whoever the hell is running things for the Hornets (the franchise is owned by the NBA) knows it, too. That's why he declined it.
I heard these trade rumors last night and thought little of them, but awoke this morning to a couple of semi-hysterical emails and texts messages. I started searching the deep recesses of my brain to try to retrieve who the past Rondo trade rumors had swirled around. Finding nothing there, I turned to the Internet, and quickly came across this article by Sean Deveney of The Sporting News. It's not Deveney's main thesis, but the below quote from that article illustrates the point I want to make rather nicely:
I don't necessarily agree with Deveny's main argument, that Ainge throws Rondo's name out in trade rumors as a motivational tactic. (It's certainly a possibility, but I think it's more likely that Ainge simply thinks that it's possible that one day, an opposing NBA GM will make a dumb decision and overpay for Rondo. It certainly wouldn't be the first time an NBA GM made such a decision.) But Deveney is right when he says that the vast majority of rumored trades involving Rondo would have been seen as major coups for the Celtics.
(I would have to agree with that assessment, with the possible exception of a proposal that Ainge is rumored to have proposed after the playoffs last year, a proposal that just became public knowledge yesterday: Rondo and Jeff Green to Oklahoma City for Russell Westbrook and Kendrick Perkins. I wonder how that conversation went: "Hi Sam, it's Danny. Remember when we had the best team in the East and then traded you our center and defensive anchor for your overrated combo forward? Yeah, I can't believe Shaq and Jermaine got injured, either! Anyway, Sam, we screwed up, and we'd like our center back. Can we swap again? No? What if we gave you Rondo, too, and you gave us that athletic kid who can't shoot, either -- Westbrook, I think his name is. No? But Sam ... Wait, hello? Sam????" In seriousness, I probably reacted as poorly as I did to hearing that proposal because it would have been a sneaky admission by Ainge that he messed up by dealing Perkins for Green in the first place, instead of an outright one, and because it would make me sad to have the band back together, sans Rondo, knowing that we easily could have kept all five together and not thrown away a chance at last season's title. I'm also not that high on Westbrook, though a lot of people are and would rather have him than Rondo.)
The point is that at least while our team is built to win now, any Rondo trade is very likely to overwhelmingly benefit us. It'd be something to be nostalgic over -- I'd probably even shed a few tears -- but our favorite franchise would almost certainly be in better shape because of it.
That caveat -- at least while our team is built to win now -- is important, though. Because, as fun as these last four seasons have been, we have to remember what we've gotten ourselves into. When we traded the 5th pick in the 2007 draft to Seattle for Ray Allen and Al Jefferson and a couple of future firsts to Minnesota for Kevin Garnett, we did so with an eye to a three-, maybe four-year championship window. Rondo's excellence and the surprising relative longevity of Paul Pierce and Allen have extended that window somewhat, but we're in year five now. It's going to end soon, my brothers and sisters in green, and when it does, it's going to end ugly.
Not necessarily ugly on the court or for the health of the franchise, in a basketball sense. When their run as alpha dogs is over, the veterans could bring in draft picks or promising players from franchises looking for something extra to put them over the top. Or Boston could use their cap room to sign a free agent stud. Rondo could be turned into a couple of pieces around which a playoff -- if not a championship -- squad could be built. The Celtics could be postseason mainstays again.
But emotionally, it's probably going to get ugly. The contract extension that Pierce signed in the summer of 2010 makes it likely that the Captain and the Truth retires a lifelong Celtic, and that's one drama-bomb I'll be happy to avoid. But Ray and KG are up after this year, and in all likelihood, they'll want to stay. And Pierce will want them to stay, and so will Rondo, and so will Doc Rivers, and so will I. So will you, and so will all the other Celtics fans in the world. And at some point -- maybe not this offseason, but sometime soon, and possibly even before this offseason -- Ainge is going to have to step in and be the bad guy, tell everyone it's over, and remind everyone of the Window and that it was fun while it lasted.
And then there's Rondo.
Rondo is the most unique player in the league today, if not in history. His peculiar blend of talent, athleticism, and disposition make him a once-in-a-lifetime performer on the basketball court. No player has brought me greater joy than he; it is likely that none ever will.
But Rondo is not, in all probability, a franchise point guard. He has more value to us than any NBA team, but the factors that make that true -- his chemistry with the Big Three and his ability and willingness to manage the three of them on the court -- dissipate when those guys are gone. I'm not interested in debating the degree to which he makes his teammates better and vice versa, but it's virtually uncontroverted that his effectiveness will be reduced when he suits up alongside lesser players and the opponent can focus their energies on stopping him. It is very likely that one winter night in the near future, Rondo will pull a jersey over that tiny head and onto those broad shoulders, and it won't say "Celtics" on the front. It will say "Hornets" or "Pacers" or, God forbid -- no, I don't want to even mention the unpleasant possibilities.
And to me, that's really what this play for CP3 is all about: the future. To sell Paul on signing long-term with Boston, Ainge has to sell him on the possibility of winning right away, going for a ring alongside Pierce, Garnett, and Allen. But from the very day that Ainge brought this team together, he's had at least one eye on the future. He structured the Big Three's contracts so that they would expire in staggered fashion; year-by-year, not all at once. The goal was to contend for championships during the Window, then slowly trade older pieces for younger ones, building the foundation so that the next title team can start from a much more solid base than this one did. Paul would be the bridge from the Big Three era to whatever era is next in Boston.
I say all this not to temper excitement for the season that is unexpectedly just a few weeks away, nor to cause you to monitor the upcoming campaign pensively, waiting for the hammer to drop. Rather, I say it to encourage you to appreciate what is immediately in front of us. As recently as last week, I was convinced that the labor dispute would claim the entire 2011-2012 season. I was faced not only with the loss of a prime season of my favorite player, but the likely closing of the Window and the end of the Big Three era.
And so, while the lockout made me as angry as it made any of you, it also made me appreciate the past and the newly-saved future that much more. On Christmas Day, when we rip the bow off the NBA season, I'll watch with a renewed sense of appreciation. I hope that when I flip on the TV at my grandmother's house, I'll see a familiar face playing point guard for the Celtics, zipping around the court, shooting passing lanes and dazzling the crowd with often spectacular assists.
But if he isn't, I'll know why. And I'll be okay with it.
I think.
This year's iteration is Rondo for New Orleans' Chris Paul, a free agent next summer who is looking to join his own super-team to compete with the Unholy Trinity in Miami. And although those talks seem more or less dead as of this writing (Paul reportedly won't agree to sign an extension with the Celtics), enough has been made of it over the past 24 hours that it's worth a discussion.
Given my overall opinion of the guy, what I'm about to say borders on heresy, but here goes: Rondo for Paul is a no-brainer, slam dunk for the Cs. This isn't a novel statement -- you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who disagrees. As much as I love Rondo and think Paul is kind of a punk, there's no question that CP3 opens up more possibilities for a franchise, both this year and moving forward, than #9 does.
Danny Ainge knows this. That's why he proposed the deal. And whoever the hell is running things for the Hornets (the franchise is owned by the NBA) knows it, too. That's why he declined it.
I heard these trade rumors last night and thought little of them, but awoke this morning to a couple of semi-hysterical emails and texts messages. I started searching the deep recesses of my brain to try to retrieve who the past Rondo trade rumors had swirled around. Finding nothing there, I turned to the Internet, and quickly came across this article by Sean Deveney of The Sporting News. It's not Deveney's main thesis, but the below quote from that article illustrates the point I want to make rather nicely:
After having spent the Celtics’ ’08 title march in the background, you might say Rondo’s star was born in those playoffs. And yet, a month later, Rondo was one of the most prominent names on the trading block. He was going to Detroit with Ray Allen in a package for the Pistons’ three best players—Tayshaun Prince, Richard Hamilton and Rodney Stuckey. Or he was going to Memphis with Brian Scalabrine for Rudy Gay, Mike Conley and the No. 2 pick in the draft. No, he was off to Phoenix with Allen for Amare Stoudemire, Leandro Barbosa and the No. 14 pick.
None of that came to pass. In fact, none of it even came close to happening. Each scenario, at the time, was considered ridiculously in favor of the Celtics (though that Pistons deal would have been a good one for Detroit) and served as little more than grist for the rumor mill.
I don't necessarily agree with Deveny's main argument, that Ainge throws Rondo's name out in trade rumors as a motivational tactic. (It's certainly a possibility, but I think it's more likely that Ainge simply thinks that it's possible that one day, an opposing NBA GM will make a dumb decision and overpay for Rondo. It certainly wouldn't be the first time an NBA GM made such a decision.) But Deveney is right when he says that the vast majority of rumored trades involving Rondo would have been seen as major coups for the Celtics.
(I would have to agree with that assessment, with the possible exception of a proposal that Ainge is rumored to have proposed after the playoffs last year, a proposal that just became public knowledge yesterday: Rondo and Jeff Green to Oklahoma City for Russell Westbrook and Kendrick Perkins. I wonder how that conversation went: "Hi Sam, it's Danny. Remember when we had the best team in the East and then traded you our center and defensive anchor for your overrated combo forward? Yeah, I can't believe Shaq and Jermaine got injured, either! Anyway, Sam, we screwed up, and we'd like our center back. Can we swap again? No? What if we gave you Rondo, too, and you gave us that athletic kid who can't shoot, either -- Westbrook, I think his name is. No? But Sam ... Wait, hello? Sam????" In seriousness, I probably reacted as poorly as I did to hearing that proposal because it would have been a sneaky admission by Ainge that he messed up by dealing Perkins for Green in the first place, instead of an outright one, and because it would make me sad to have the band back together, sans Rondo, knowing that we easily could have kept all five together and not thrown away a chance at last season's title. I'm also not that high on Westbrook, though a lot of people are and would rather have him than Rondo.)
The point is that at least while our team is built to win now, any Rondo trade is very likely to overwhelmingly benefit us. It'd be something to be nostalgic over -- I'd probably even shed a few tears -- but our favorite franchise would almost certainly be in better shape because of it.
That caveat -- at least while our team is built to win now -- is important, though. Because, as fun as these last four seasons have been, we have to remember what we've gotten ourselves into. When we traded the 5th pick in the 2007 draft to Seattle for Ray Allen and Al Jefferson and a couple of future firsts to Minnesota for Kevin Garnett, we did so with an eye to a three-, maybe four-year championship window. Rondo's excellence and the surprising relative longevity of Paul Pierce and Allen have extended that window somewhat, but we're in year five now. It's going to end soon, my brothers and sisters in green, and when it does, it's going to end ugly.
Not necessarily ugly on the court or for the health of the franchise, in a basketball sense. When their run as alpha dogs is over, the veterans could bring in draft picks or promising players from franchises looking for something extra to put them over the top. Or Boston could use their cap room to sign a free agent stud. Rondo could be turned into a couple of pieces around which a playoff -- if not a championship -- squad could be built. The Celtics could be postseason mainstays again.
But emotionally, it's probably going to get ugly. The contract extension that Pierce signed in the summer of 2010 makes it likely that the Captain and the Truth retires a lifelong Celtic, and that's one drama-bomb I'll be happy to avoid. But Ray and KG are up after this year, and in all likelihood, they'll want to stay. And Pierce will want them to stay, and so will Rondo, and so will Doc Rivers, and so will I. So will you, and so will all the other Celtics fans in the world. And at some point -- maybe not this offseason, but sometime soon, and possibly even before this offseason -- Ainge is going to have to step in and be the bad guy, tell everyone it's over, and remind everyone of the Window and that it was fun while it lasted.
And then there's Rondo.
Rondo is the most unique player in the league today, if not in history. His peculiar blend of talent, athleticism, and disposition make him a once-in-a-lifetime performer on the basketball court. No player has brought me greater joy than he; it is likely that none ever will.
But Rondo is not, in all probability, a franchise point guard. He has more value to us than any NBA team, but the factors that make that true -- his chemistry with the Big Three and his ability and willingness to manage the three of them on the court -- dissipate when those guys are gone. I'm not interested in debating the degree to which he makes his teammates better and vice versa, but it's virtually uncontroverted that his effectiveness will be reduced when he suits up alongside lesser players and the opponent can focus their energies on stopping him. It is very likely that one winter night in the near future, Rondo will pull a jersey over that tiny head and onto those broad shoulders, and it won't say "Celtics" on the front. It will say "Hornets" or "Pacers" or, God forbid -- no, I don't want to even mention the unpleasant possibilities.
And to me, that's really what this play for CP3 is all about: the future. To sell Paul on signing long-term with Boston, Ainge has to sell him on the possibility of winning right away, going for a ring alongside Pierce, Garnett, and Allen. But from the very day that Ainge brought this team together, he's had at least one eye on the future. He structured the Big Three's contracts so that they would expire in staggered fashion; year-by-year, not all at once. The goal was to contend for championships during the Window, then slowly trade older pieces for younger ones, building the foundation so that the next title team can start from a much more solid base than this one did. Paul would be the bridge from the Big Three era to whatever era is next in Boston.
I say all this not to temper excitement for the season that is unexpectedly just a few weeks away, nor to cause you to monitor the upcoming campaign pensively, waiting for the hammer to drop. Rather, I say it to encourage you to appreciate what is immediately in front of us. As recently as last week, I was convinced that the labor dispute would claim the entire 2011-2012 season. I was faced not only with the loss of a prime season of my favorite player, but the likely closing of the Window and the end of the Big Three era.
And so, while the lockout made me as angry as it made any of you, it also made me appreciate the past and the newly-saved future that much more. On Christmas Day, when we rip the bow off the NBA season, I'll watch with a renewed sense of appreciation. I hope that when I flip on the TV at my grandmother's house, I'll see a familiar face playing point guard for the Celtics, zipping around the court, shooting passing lanes and dazzling the crowd with often spectacular assists.
But if he isn't, I'll know why. And I'll be okay with it.
I think.
Friday, April 17, 2009
The KG Post
(I'm a day late in posting this. I was busy when I found out about KG's injury, despondent when I became less busy, and into my third hour at a bar in Santa Monica when I became less despondent.)
Last June 5, I stood in relative silence in Section 327 of the TD Banknorth Boston Garden. It was the third quarter of Game 1 of the NBA Finals, and moments earlier, Paul Pierce had been carried off the court with an apparent knee injury. I turned to my friend standing next to me and asked, even though I already knew the answer, "We can't win without him, can we?" -- meaning the series, not necessarily the game. My friend just shook his head. Seconds later, I received a text message from another friend, this one watching at home, with information from the telecast we couldn't get in person: "Pierce in wheelchair in tunnel." I held my phone out so that my buddies in attendance could read the bad news, then snapped it shut.
My mood was, essentially, disbelief. I remember thinking, though I can't recall if I said it out loud, "I can't believe we came this far only to have this happen." I have only spotty recollection of the 1980s championship teams, and the franchise had what could be most charitably described as intermittent success during my formative years as a basketball fan. This was supposed to be a different year thanks to the arrival of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, a chain of events set off by the Celtics getting "unlucky" in the draft lottery that was supposed to land them Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. From that moment, Boston had traded for a couple of All-Stars just starting to lose their footing at the peak of their careers, mortgaging the future for a three-year window to get get as many rings as possible.
Four wins away from that first ring, and Pierce goes down.
Of course, that story had a happy ending. Pierce came back just a few minutes later, hit two big three-pointers, and Boston won that game and the series in six.
I bring this up because, if not for last year, that's the feeling I would have had when I woke up Thursday morning and saw the news of Garnett's injury in my inbox. It still stings a lot to know that our title defense is basically over, but it's a little bit easier because of the championship banner hanging in the rafters from last year.
And yes, I said that our title defense is over. I'm going to say this once, then get into rah-rah mode for the rest of the playoffs and try to find a reason why I'm wrong. Here it is, though: Absent injuries to LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, we have no chance of beating Cleveland or Los Angeles in a seven-game series without Kevin Garnett. None.
I'm disappointed, but I don't feel blindsided. I've hinted here that I was worried about Garnett's knee, and I think deep down I was more worried than I let on, that I knew this was a real possibility even if I wouldn't admit it to myself. It was just too weird, the way KG sat and then came back briefly, then sat again. Doc Rivers used the phrase "shut down" in announcing that Garnett wouldn't play for a while, and while it may have been poor word choice, it may have been a little bit of the truth leaking out. Then came the announcement that Garnett would practice this past Monday, not play Tuesday against Philadelphia, but play the season finale on Wednesday against Washington, followed quickly by another story that said he wouldn't play in either game.
I actually noticed something during the Philly game that maybe hinted at this. During the TNT broadcast, they showed Pierce ripping into the reserves for lack of focus and lackluster play, a role filled by Garnett since his arrival in Boston. It's not really in Pierce's nature to do that -- though it's more his nature than it is Ray Allen's -- but he did it, even in a game that was essentially meaningless for the team.
I haven't had a chance to read all the stories, so I can't say for sure, but I haven't heard anything that suggests the players had known about this and kept quiet. It's certainly possible, though. It also could be that Garnett had confided in Pierce that his recovery wasn't going smoothly. Or maybe Pierce just had a hunch.
Either way, if the Celtics are going to win the title, they'll almost certainly have to do it without Garnett. (It's theoretically possible that he could come back. Information from the team about the injury has been scarce throughout this ordeal, and the current report is that he's actually suffering from two injuries: a bone spur that will be likely be surgically removed in the offseason; and a strained tendon that will only heal with rest. Rivers says it's the tendon that's keeping Garnett out, so if that heals, he could come back -- though Rivers was quick to caution that KG's return this season is unlikely). Boston should still be able to handle Chicago in the first round without too much difficulty, and I still think they can squeeze by Orlando in the second round if it comes to that, no surprise given I've been down on the Magic all year. (ESPN's John Hollinger's statistical analysis agrees with these prospects.)
Ironically for a team that finds itself very thin heading into a grueling postseason that potentially will last about two months, it may be that the longer their playoff series', the better. More games means more time for KG to get healthy, or healthyish, which is the only shot at a repeat.
The playoffs start tomorrow, at 12:30 Eastern on ESPN, with Game 1 against Chicago in Boston.
RwH extends our best wishes to Celtics GM Danny Ainge, who suffered a mild heart attack on Thursday. Reports are that Ainge should be fine, though he'll miss at least the first and probably the second game of the Chicago series. Thank goodness. Get well soon, Danny.
Last June 5, I stood in relative silence in Section 327 of the TD Banknorth Boston Garden. It was the third quarter of Game 1 of the NBA Finals, and moments earlier, Paul Pierce had been carried off the court with an apparent knee injury. I turned to my friend standing next to me and asked, even though I already knew the answer, "We can't win without him, can we?" -- meaning the series, not necessarily the game. My friend just shook his head. Seconds later, I received a text message from another friend, this one watching at home, with information from the telecast we couldn't get in person: "Pierce in wheelchair in tunnel." I held my phone out so that my buddies in attendance could read the bad news, then snapped it shut.
My mood was, essentially, disbelief. I remember thinking, though I can't recall if I said it out loud, "I can't believe we came this far only to have this happen." I have only spotty recollection of the 1980s championship teams, and the franchise had what could be most charitably described as intermittent success during my formative years as a basketball fan. This was supposed to be a different year thanks to the arrival of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, a chain of events set off by the Celtics getting "unlucky" in the draft lottery that was supposed to land them Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. From that moment, Boston had traded for a couple of All-Stars just starting to lose their footing at the peak of their careers, mortgaging the future for a three-year window to get get as many rings as possible.
Four wins away from that first ring, and Pierce goes down.
Of course, that story had a happy ending. Pierce came back just a few minutes later, hit two big three-pointers, and Boston won that game and the series in six.
I bring this up because, if not for last year, that's the feeling I would have had when I woke up Thursday morning and saw the news of Garnett's injury in my inbox. It still stings a lot to know that our title defense is basically over, but it's a little bit easier because of the championship banner hanging in the rafters from last year.
And yes, I said that our title defense is over. I'm going to say this once, then get into rah-rah mode for the rest of the playoffs and try to find a reason why I'm wrong. Here it is, though: Absent injuries to LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, we have no chance of beating Cleveland or Los Angeles in a seven-game series without Kevin Garnett. None.
I'm disappointed, but I don't feel blindsided. I've hinted here that I was worried about Garnett's knee, and I think deep down I was more worried than I let on, that I knew this was a real possibility even if I wouldn't admit it to myself. It was just too weird, the way KG sat and then came back briefly, then sat again. Doc Rivers used the phrase "shut down" in announcing that Garnett wouldn't play for a while, and while it may have been poor word choice, it may have been a little bit of the truth leaking out. Then came the announcement that Garnett would practice this past Monday, not play Tuesday against Philadelphia, but play the season finale on Wednesday against Washington, followed quickly by another story that said he wouldn't play in either game.
I actually noticed something during the Philly game that maybe hinted at this. During the TNT broadcast, they showed Pierce ripping into the reserves for lack of focus and lackluster play, a role filled by Garnett since his arrival in Boston. It's not really in Pierce's nature to do that -- though it's more his nature than it is Ray Allen's -- but he did it, even in a game that was essentially meaningless for the team.
I haven't had a chance to read all the stories, so I can't say for sure, but I haven't heard anything that suggests the players had known about this and kept quiet. It's certainly possible, though. It also could be that Garnett had confided in Pierce that his recovery wasn't going smoothly. Or maybe Pierce just had a hunch.
Either way, if the Celtics are going to win the title, they'll almost certainly have to do it without Garnett. (It's theoretically possible that he could come back. Information from the team about the injury has been scarce throughout this ordeal, and the current report is that he's actually suffering from two injuries: a bone spur that will be likely be surgically removed in the offseason; and a strained tendon that will only heal with rest. Rivers says it's the tendon that's keeping Garnett out, so if that heals, he could come back -- though Rivers was quick to caution that KG's return this season is unlikely). Boston should still be able to handle Chicago in the first round without too much difficulty, and I still think they can squeeze by Orlando in the second round if it comes to that, no surprise given I've been down on the Magic all year. (ESPN's John Hollinger's statistical analysis agrees with these prospects.)
Ironically for a team that finds itself very thin heading into a grueling postseason that potentially will last about two months, it may be that the longer their playoff series', the better. More games means more time for KG to get healthy, or healthyish, which is the only shot at a repeat.
The playoffs start tomorrow, at 12:30 Eastern on ESPN, with Game 1 against Chicago in Boston.
RwH extends our best wishes to Celtics GM Danny Ainge, who suffered a mild heart attack on Thursday. Reports are that Ainge should be fine, though he'll miss at least the first and probably the second game of the Chicago series. Thank goodness. Get well soon, Danny.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Boston 111, Charlotte 109 (2OT)
Strange game.
[recap] [box score] [I'm no longer linking highlights because the Yahoo! stories now have a highlights link]
I've been trying to come up with a real-life analogy for this victory, something I could point to help those who didn't see the game relate to it, but all I could come up with is "Have you ever won a basketball game you had no business winning?" and I'm not sure that's very applicable to the RwH audience.
The Celtics did almost nothing right against the Bobcats. They essentially mailed in the first and third quarters. They committed 24 turnovers, a big chunk of those coming in regulation. They allowed 20 offensive rebounds, including three in a row in the first overtime, which resulted in an 85-second possession and three-point lead for the Bobcats. I don't know how Boston won this game.
I really don't, actually, because I was watching online, and my Internet connection kicked out for a bit with us down 93-87 with around two minutes to go. By the time I got it back, Rajon Rondo was headed to the line with 27 seconds left down 93-91. The 64 percent free throw shooter drained them both.
Overtime belonged to Ray Allen, who hit three three-pointers in the two extra periods, including one that tied it up at the end of the first OT after that long Charlotte possession, and the game-winner with two seconds left in the second OT. Both those shots came right in the eyes of Charlotte's Gerald Wallace, a player I generally like but who was getting on my nerves last night because of his acting on the defensive end, drawing offensive fouls away from the ball.
Even to the very end, Boston tried to lose this game. Charlotte's Raja Bell had a great look at the game-winner, mainly because Allen, who was guarding Bell, the inbounder, turned his head to look at the pass, then got his clock cleaned by a screen as the ball was kicked back out to Bell. Every basketball fan knows that the most dangerous guy on the floor in those spots is the inbounder, and Allen temporarily forgot that.
Anyway, a win is a win, and there are a couple of additional good things to take out of this win in particular. For starters, it did not come on the back of Paul Pierce, as so many of Boston's comeback wins do. Pierce was oustanding through three quarters, scoring 28 points, and made a great pass on Allen's game-winner, but he only had four points in the final 22 minutes of game time. Kevin Garnett is fond of referring to Pierce as Superman, but this game was won by a bunch of Robins in green-and-white.
I know that Robin is Batman's sidekick, but Superman, as far as I can remember, didn't have one.
The second good thing to come out of yesterday is that Boston's back in second place in the East, thanks to Orlando's 99-95 home loss to Toronto, and therefore back to homecourt advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
On to more pressing matters. You've probably heard this, but Garnett didn't play last night, and won't for the rest of the homestand. His knee is still sore and isn't responding the way they thought it would. Doc Rivers has spoken of "shutting him down," causing all Celtics' fans hearts to skip a beat, but it's just unfortunate word choice and they expect him to be back and healthy for the first game of the playoffs.
At one point during last night's telecast, they interviewed Danny Ainge, and Ainge made the point that when Garnett came back briefly, he played well, and that resting him now is more about making sure Garnett is healthy than it is about Garnett being able to contribute. The implication, it seems, is that if this were the playoffs, KG would be out there.
Still, this makes me uneasy. I'm getting tired of Adrian Wojnarowski's constant pot-stirring (he's been in the news recently for alleging recruiting violations at UConn and the general tenor of many columns this season seems designed to drum up controversy), but this, minus the overly dramatic language, sums up how I feel. I'm very nervous.
[recap] [box score] [I'm no longer linking highlights because the Yahoo! stories now have a highlights link]
I've been trying to come up with a real-life analogy for this victory, something I could point to help those who didn't see the game relate to it, but all I could come up with is "Have you ever won a basketball game you had no business winning?" and I'm not sure that's very applicable to the RwH audience.
The Celtics did almost nothing right against the Bobcats. They essentially mailed in the first and third quarters. They committed 24 turnovers, a big chunk of those coming in regulation. They allowed 20 offensive rebounds, including three in a row in the first overtime, which resulted in an 85-second possession and three-point lead for the Bobcats. I don't know how Boston won this game.
I really don't, actually, because I was watching online, and my Internet connection kicked out for a bit with us down 93-87 with around two minutes to go. By the time I got it back, Rajon Rondo was headed to the line with 27 seconds left down 93-91. The 64 percent free throw shooter drained them both.
Overtime belonged to Ray Allen, who hit three three-pointers in the two extra periods, including one that tied it up at the end of the first OT after that long Charlotte possession, and the game-winner with two seconds left in the second OT. Both those shots came right in the eyes of Charlotte's Gerald Wallace, a player I generally like but who was getting on my nerves last night because of his acting on the defensive end, drawing offensive fouls away from the ball.
Even to the very end, Boston tried to lose this game. Charlotte's Raja Bell had a great look at the game-winner, mainly because Allen, who was guarding Bell, the inbounder, turned his head to look at the pass, then got his clock cleaned by a screen as the ball was kicked back out to Bell. Every basketball fan knows that the most dangerous guy on the floor in those spots is the inbounder, and Allen temporarily forgot that.
Anyway, a win is a win, and there are a couple of additional good things to take out of this win in particular. For starters, it did not come on the back of Paul Pierce, as so many of Boston's comeback wins do. Pierce was oustanding through three quarters, scoring 28 points, and made a great pass on Allen's game-winner, but he only had four points in the final 22 minutes of game time. Kevin Garnett is fond of referring to Pierce as Superman, but this game was won by a bunch of Robins in green-and-white.
I know that Robin is Batman's sidekick, but Superman, as far as I can remember, didn't have one.
The second good thing to come out of yesterday is that Boston's back in second place in the East, thanks to Orlando's 99-95 home loss to Toronto, and therefore back to homecourt advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
On to more pressing matters. You've probably heard this, but Garnett didn't play last night, and won't for the rest of the homestand. His knee is still sore and isn't responding the way they thought it would. Doc Rivers has spoken of "shutting him down," causing all Celtics' fans hearts to skip a beat, but it's just unfortunate word choice and they expect him to be back and healthy for the first game of the playoffs.
At one point during last night's telecast, they interviewed Danny Ainge, and Ainge made the point that when Garnett came back briefly, he played well, and that resting him now is more about making sure Garnett is healthy than it is about Garnett being able to contribute. The implication, it seems, is that if this were the playoffs, KG would be out there.
Still, this makes me uneasy. I'm getting tired of Adrian Wojnarowski's constant pot-stirring (he's been in the news recently for alleging recruiting violations at UConn and the general tenor of many columns this season seems designed to drum up controversy), but this, minus the overly dramatic language, sums up how I feel. I'm very nervous.
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