This Could Be a Very Important Week for the Celtics

Three games, four nights, three losses. After losing at home to the Bulls on Friday, in Indy to the Pacers on Saturday, and at home to the Thunder on Monday, the Celtics are now 4-8, having lost five straight for the first time in the Big Three era.

There were signs of life on Monday, to be sure, as Boston hung with a young Oklahoma City squad, currently the holders of the best record in the NBA. Paul Pierce looked more like his old self than he has at any point during this young season, and for the first time in a while, the Celtics put in a respectable performance on the glass and seemed to get most of the loose balls. Ultimately, turnovers and an inability to capitalize offensively down the stretch did the Celtics in, the same way they were done in against Chicago when they overcame a horrible-shooting first half to cut a 20-point lead to one, only to see their chance to take the lead rim out. Turnovers, an ability to score, and some lucky skillful...nah, let's go with lucky, three-point shooting from Russell Westbrook.

As the title of this post suggests, I think the next six days could dictate the future of the Celtics franchise. That may seem a bit strange, given that the next three teams on the schedule are the 4-10 Raptors, the 4-8 Suns, and the 1-12 Wizards. Here, however, is my completely unsubstantiated and probably untestable hypothesis.

Last week, after the loss to the Mavs, someone asked Danny Ainge if the Celtics were too old. His answer was non-committal, but he did throw this in: "I'm committed to the guys as long as they're going to perform, but they've got to perform. They've got to show they have an opportunity to win. Otherwise, I've got to at least make an effort to go in another direction."

Ainge certainly isn't the only person to give the Celtics a far-from-ringing endorsement -- something the players deserve with their performance thus far. In a post-game interview last Wednesday, Dallas' Jason Terry said, in so many words, that the Cs were too old to compete at a high level in the NBA. At halftime of the Bulls telecast on Friday, the EPSN studio crew wrote Boston off, announcing the physical decline of Pierce in the process. And there's been plenty of talk in the blogosphere about Ainge blowing it up -- selling off the veterans with an eye towards building a new contender.

What's this got to do with Toronto, Phoenix, and Washington?

It's just a hunch, but I think that if the Celtics can't win these upcoming games -- or at least two of the three -- Ainge will have his answer to whether his team has an opportunity to win. At least, he'll have that answer in his mind, and that's all that matters.

We can talk all we want about Pierce and Garnett playing themselves into shape and giving the new bench guys time to gel. By the end of this week, the season will be a month old, and all the other teams off to slow starts will have righted the ship. Boston's schedule isn't getting any easier -- seven of their games so far have been at home, and the games against the Raps and Suns are also on the parquet. Boston has also already had a four-day break, a rare luxury in this condensed season. In contrast, they've got a five-game road trip coming up in February, an eight-games-in-thirteen-nights roadie in March, and a road back-to-back-to-back looming in the middle of April. If the Celtics can't beat the Raptors, Suns, and Wizards, then the Celtics' ability to even make the playoffs would be in doubt -- and I guarantee that simply making the playoffs is not what Ainge had in mind when he talked about the "opportunity to win."

I'm not saying that "blowing it up" is necessarily the smart move. Kevin Garnett's physical decline and price tag for this year make it unlikely Ainge could fetch much of value for him -- he'd probably be more valuable as an expiring deal. Pierce's age and slow start to the season are likely to make potential buyers wary, as he's scheduled to make a combined $32 million in 2012-13 and 2013-2014 -- and trading the Captain would likely incite a riot among the team's fan base. And Boston's early struggles have only served to confirm what many have long asserted about Rajon R-ndo -- that's he's not a point guard you can build a team around. Ainge could get something for him, but he's not at the peak of his value at the moment. Ray Allen, an expiring contract who has performed well thus far, probably would bring in something, but nothing to build a dynasty around.

There's also a third option, an alternative to "put up or shut up," where Ainge patiently waits for the team to play better (this is going to happen, by the way; it's just not possible for us to continue to miss as many open shots as we have so far), then pulls the chair out from under everyone at the trade deadline by shipping out Rondo and the veterans. This possibility, rather unpleasant to stomach though it may be, is probably the smart play for Ainge -- wait for everyone's stock to bounce back, rather than sell low. But that's something to worry about in March.

For my part, I think the team is going to improve. We're going to start hitting some shots, Doc will (hopefully) settle on a bench rotation, and our conditioning will continue to improve. At this point, my expectations are low -- I want to make the playoffs and make a little noise there, though I reserve the right to later talk myself into how we can win a championship (one of the privileges of being a fan). But I can't argue with anyone who says the Celtics are done, and I don't think anyone will be able to convince Ainge otherwise, either, once he makes up his mind.

Here's hoping that's not this weekend.