Not much to say about this one, as the Celtics put forth an impressive defensive effort in improving to 2-0. Chicago shot 29.8% from the field for the game. 'Nuff said.
[recap] [boxscore]
That being the case, I'll make a couple quick macro points, say something about the Bulls, and check out perhaps a little more briefly than usual. Or not.
-Tony Allen is my least favorite Celtic, in large part because I just don't think he understands the game of basketball very well. Tonight's exhibit: The chucking he did with the game well in hand. I think he took shots on three straight possessions at one point, with the crowd screaming to get the ball to Brian Scalabrine and with Gabe Pruitt and Patrick O'Bryant in the game. Tony is already a part of the rotation; he doesn't need to show his scoring ability (not that he did tonight, anyway, going 1-for-8). Get the other guys involved. Even Pruitt, who is trying to show that he deserves a spot in the rotation, deferred to Scal. I'm not saying that we desperately need to get Scalabrine a bucket, but Tony should know to play unselfishly with the bomb squad in the game.
-ESPN announcers Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy made a huge deal of how into the game Boston's starters were in the last few minutes. I didn't really understand that; watching the scrubs close out a win is one of the most enjoyable parts of being a star. And they shouldn't have been surprised, either; the Cs stars did it all last year, too. And because it will give me an excuse to post my favorite YouTube link (which I've posted here before, and which I'll surely post again), they did it this preseason, as well (check the bench).
-O'Bryant needs to work his way into the rotation, or we need to find someone else to play backup center. I like Powe, and I like Glen Davis, but those guys are both undersized fours. Playing one of them at five with the other at four is just too small. And I hope that the Scalabrine-Powe-Davis frontcourt that Doc put out in the second quarter was some sort of Halloween trick-or-treat stunt.
-I realize that it's only two games into his coaching career, but have no idea what Vinnie Del Negro is doing. Three of his four best players are guards, and yet only one of them is starting. Meanwhile, he's starting two power forwards (Tyrus Thomas and Drew Gooden), and at one point in tonight's game, subbed them both out for two centers (Joakim Noah and Aaron Gray) who are limited offensively. Del Negro may not yet know what his best lineup is -- Jackson was saying it's the three-guard lineup, which I don't think Chicago has even played yet this year -- but of all the possible combos, he's played some of the worst.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Scouting the Bulls
One of the great things about NBA League Pass Broadband -- which is complementary with a League Pass subscription but can also be bought separately -- is that it archives games for two days. So, at 1:30 a.m. last night, with my reading done for the week, I fired up my computer and watched Chicago's opening-night 108-95 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks.
Why? Because we play Chicago next (Friday night at 8 p.m. Eastern on ESPN), that's why. Yes, I'm scouting opponents for a team I follow.
New coach Vinnie Del Negro (!) ran out an unusual starting lineup. In the backcourt, top pick Derrick Rose played alongside Thabo Sefalosha, leaving Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon to come off the bench. Thabo played only twelve minutes overall -- Hinrich got him four minutes in to both halves -- and was pretty much a non-factor. The move doesn't make all that much sense to me, and it's insignificant enought that I'm not going to scour the Internet looking for reports on why Del Negro did it. Perhaps he wanted his star rookie to assert himself, rather than defer to Hinrich, the incumbent at point guard. Or perhaps he wanted the very long Sefalosha to start on Michael Redd. Either way, Rose and Hinrich were the effective starting guards.
Up front, Del Negro went small, with Luol Deng at the 3, Tyrus Thomas at the 4, and Drew Gooden at the 5. This despite the fact that the Bucks have seven-footer Andrew Bogut, and the Bulls have a couple young seven-foot bangers in Joakim Noah and Aaron Gray. We'll see who Del Negro trots out there tomorrow night.
The Bulls on Offense
Chicago is going to push the tempo this year. Make or miss, Del Negro wants the ball in the point guard's hands, moving up the court quickly. Rose seems to have bought into it more than Hinrich, darting upcourt with a purpose, probing the defense. Hinrich seemed to be doing it just to make his coach happy. It really looked that once he got across halfcourt, Kirk was thinking "Glad that's over with, time to run some offense."
That may be ultimately better for Chicago, at least in the early going as Rose becomes more comfortable with the pace of the NBA game. The Bulls were a little frenetic on offense, committing a bunch of silly turnovers just because they were moving too fast. You've got to shade Rose to one side of the court as he brings it up to keep him from going coast-to-coast, but if Chicago wants to play up and down, I say let them.
In the halfcourt, they ran a lot of ball screens with their fives, Gooden and Noah. Gooden will usually pop for the 17-footer after setting the screen; Noah, because he has one of the worst-jumpers of anyone in the Association, will roll to the bucket. Kendrick Perkins is pretty good at defending the screen and roll, and that's going to be a key to this game. One note of caution to Boston's help defenders: Rose sees the weak side of the floor extremely well. Anyone shading into the lane to help on these screen/rolls will need to be very aware of what their man is doing.
The one knock on Rose is his jumper, and he didn't seem at all interested in establishing it against the Bucks. Even so, if I was Rajon Rondo, I wouldn't sag on him too much. Rose is so quick, so elusive, and so strong that I wouldn't want him getting a running start at me.
They run more isos for Deng and Gordon. I think Pierce can handle Deng fine. Ray Allen might have some trouble with Gordon, but since Ben plays a lot with the second team, Tony Allen will probably log a lot of minutes against him. TA should be fine.
Kevin Garnett's going to have to pay attention to Thomas, who hit like three 15-foot jumpers against Milwaukee. He's not all that dangerous going one-on-one, but they found him a couple of times in the secondary break, and he's athletic enough to catch, take a dribble to change direction, and finish in the lane. KG will need to pick him up around the free throw line.
The Bulls on Defense
Chicago isn't very good on the other end of the floor. Their rotations were pretty bad against Milwaukee, so if we can knock down our open looks (I'm looking at you, Ray Allen and Eddie House) we should be fine. Thomas may just be long enough and athletic enough to bother KG's jumper, but Garnett has found a way to score against much tougher opponents throughout his career.
Two things I noticed in the Milwaukee game regarding help defense that the Celtics need to exploit. First, the Bulls didn't help well when the Bucks penetrated. That means that Rondo needs to drive to score, not to dish, something he seems to do more at home than on the road (this game is in Boston). How many times last year did we see Rondo go up for what appeared to be a wide-open layup, only to kick it out to somebody 20 feet from the bucket? If the Bulls aren't going to help, Rondo needs to finish those plays himself.
On the other hand, the Chicago's young bigs, Thomas and Noah, are more than happy to double team the post, recklessly looking for blocked shots. That's to our favor when the ball is in Garnett's hand, as there's no four in the game who passes finds the open man under the basket as well as he does. It will be up to Kendrick Perkins to make himself available (which he usually does), catch the pass (he's not so bad at this), and finish (this is where it gets dicey).
Remember, Friday night, ESPN, 8 p.m. Eastern. Should be a fun one to watch.
Why? Because we play Chicago next (Friday night at 8 p.m. Eastern on ESPN), that's why. Yes, I'm scouting opponents for a team I follow.
New coach Vinnie Del Negro (!) ran out an unusual starting lineup. In the backcourt, top pick Derrick Rose played alongside Thabo Sefalosha, leaving Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon to come off the bench. Thabo played only twelve minutes overall -- Hinrich got him four minutes in to both halves -- and was pretty much a non-factor. The move doesn't make all that much sense to me, and it's insignificant enought that I'm not going to scour the Internet looking for reports on why Del Negro did it. Perhaps he wanted his star rookie to assert himself, rather than defer to Hinrich, the incumbent at point guard. Or perhaps he wanted the very long Sefalosha to start on Michael Redd. Either way, Rose and Hinrich were the effective starting guards.
Up front, Del Negro went small, with Luol Deng at the 3, Tyrus Thomas at the 4, and Drew Gooden at the 5. This despite the fact that the Bucks have seven-footer Andrew Bogut, and the Bulls have a couple young seven-foot bangers in Joakim Noah and Aaron Gray. We'll see who Del Negro trots out there tomorrow night.
The Bulls on Offense
Chicago is going to push the tempo this year. Make or miss, Del Negro wants the ball in the point guard's hands, moving up the court quickly. Rose seems to have bought into it more than Hinrich, darting upcourt with a purpose, probing the defense. Hinrich seemed to be doing it just to make his coach happy. It really looked that once he got across halfcourt, Kirk was thinking "Glad that's over with, time to run some offense."
That may be ultimately better for Chicago, at least in the early going as Rose becomes more comfortable with the pace of the NBA game. The Bulls were a little frenetic on offense, committing a bunch of silly turnovers just because they were moving too fast. You've got to shade Rose to one side of the court as he brings it up to keep him from going coast-to-coast, but if Chicago wants to play up and down, I say let them.
In the halfcourt, they ran a lot of ball screens with their fives, Gooden and Noah. Gooden will usually pop for the 17-footer after setting the screen; Noah, because he has one of the worst-jumpers of anyone in the Association, will roll to the bucket. Kendrick Perkins is pretty good at defending the screen and roll, and that's going to be a key to this game. One note of caution to Boston's help defenders: Rose sees the weak side of the floor extremely well. Anyone shading into the lane to help on these screen/rolls will need to be very aware of what their man is doing.
The one knock on Rose is his jumper, and he didn't seem at all interested in establishing it against the Bucks. Even so, if I was Rajon Rondo, I wouldn't sag on him too much. Rose is so quick, so elusive, and so strong that I wouldn't want him getting a running start at me.
They run more isos for Deng and Gordon. I think Pierce can handle Deng fine. Ray Allen might have some trouble with Gordon, but since Ben plays a lot with the second team, Tony Allen will probably log a lot of minutes against him. TA should be fine.
Kevin Garnett's going to have to pay attention to Thomas, who hit like three 15-foot jumpers against Milwaukee. He's not all that dangerous going one-on-one, but they found him a couple of times in the secondary break, and he's athletic enough to catch, take a dribble to change direction, and finish in the lane. KG will need to pick him up around the free throw line.
The Bulls on Defense
Chicago isn't very good on the other end of the floor. Their rotations were pretty bad against Milwaukee, so if we can knock down our open looks (I'm looking at you, Ray Allen and Eddie House) we should be fine. Thomas may just be long enough and athletic enough to bother KG's jumper, but Garnett has found a way to score against much tougher opponents throughout his career.
Two things I noticed in the Milwaukee game regarding help defense that the Celtics need to exploit. First, the Bulls didn't help well when the Bucks penetrated. That means that Rondo needs to drive to score, not to dish, something he seems to do more at home than on the road (this game is in Boston). How many times last year did we see Rondo go up for what appeared to be a wide-open layup, only to kick it out to somebody 20 feet from the bucket? If the Bulls aren't going to help, Rondo needs to finish those plays himself.
On the other hand, the Chicago's young bigs, Thomas and Noah, are more than happy to double team the post, recklessly looking for blocked shots. That's to our favor when the ball is in Garnett's hand, as there's no four in the game who passes finds the open man under the basket as well as he does. It will be up to Kendrick Perkins to make himself available (which he usually does), catch the pass (he's not so bad at this), and finish (this is where it gets dicey).
Remember, Friday night, ESPN, 8 p.m. Eastern. Should be a fun one to watch.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Boston 90, Cleveland 85
Hot-footed it home after Legal Writing class today to catch the final 39 minutes of the season-opener. (Damn these early starts on the West Coast! I really would have liked to see the ring ceremony. Oh well, I'll be getting my Tivo soon.)
[recap] [box score]
Things I liked:
-Bench play from Tony Allen and Leon Powe. These guys came out and showed they were ready to replace James Posey's scoring on the second team. A buddy of mine who lives in Jersey who had caught preseason games against the Nets and Knicks had said that Powe looked comfortable creating his own shot, and that was apparent when he caught the ball in the post against Cleveland and faced up. I liked Tony's aggressiveness, too, even though he didn't really get going until seven big points in the fourth quarter (including two impressive and-ones over Lorenzen Wright). On a night when Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett were off (their shots will fall soon enough), they rescued us.
-Good defense on LeBron James carrying over from last year's Eastern Conference semifinals. Any time you can hold King James to 22 points on 9-for-21 and only eight free throw attempts, you have a good chance to beat the Cavs.
-Paul Pierce's crossover and pullup jumper on LeBron. Can't find a video of it, but that was sweet.
-Our 24-13 third quarter. We were a third quarter team last year, and we really took it to the Cavs tonight after halftime.
Things I didn't like:
-Our end of quarter execution. This has long been a problem for us under Doc, although less so last year now that we have more playmakers.
At the end of the first half tonight, we ran a 1-4 flex set for Rajon Rondo, who penetrated and then found KG in the corner. Garnett had a good look that didn't go down. I don't mind the set, but what's KG doing 20 feet from the basket? That's a bit out of his range, and he's not going to get any offensive rebounds that far from the hoop.
Then, up three points late with a chance to ice it, we ran the screen and roll with Pierce and KG. Cleveland switched, but Pierce could only get a tough 17-foot fallaway off over Anderson Varejao. Paul needs to do a better job exploiting the mismatch there. Sideshow Anderson is a good defender, but if Pierce can't get the space to squeeze off a better shot, he needs to go to the bucket and try to get a call.
-Kendrick Perkins. Last year, Perk didn't play much late. Without Posey to play our small lineup, we'll likely be counting on fourth quarter minutes from Perk. There's absolutely no reason for Perk to foul out against the Cavs like he did tonight; Zydrunas Ilgauskas is essentially a jumpshooter and the rest of Cleveland's bigs aren't good enough to commit fouls against.
-Rondo's dumb foul on LeBron up four with less than ten seconds to go. We missed a free throw and Rondo tried to steal the rebound from LeBron and got the whistle. I thought Rondo played a very good game overall, but this was just a dumb basketball play. I joked that Rondo was trying to further shatter LeBron's confidence at the line (he had just missed the first of a pair the last time downcourt, and he missed the front end this time, as well), but it was just a bad play.
Can't complain with 1-0, though, particularly when the 1 came against what most consider to be the main competition for the East title.
[recap] [box score]
Things I liked:
-Bench play from Tony Allen and Leon Powe. These guys came out and showed they were ready to replace James Posey's scoring on the second team. A buddy of mine who lives in Jersey who had caught preseason games against the Nets and Knicks had said that Powe looked comfortable creating his own shot, and that was apparent when he caught the ball in the post against Cleveland and faced up. I liked Tony's aggressiveness, too, even though he didn't really get going until seven big points in the fourth quarter (including two impressive and-ones over Lorenzen Wright). On a night when Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett were off (their shots will fall soon enough), they rescued us.
-Good defense on LeBron James carrying over from last year's Eastern Conference semifinals. Any time you can hold King James to 22 points on 9-for-21 and only eight free throw attempts, you have a good chance to beat the Cavs.
-Paul Pierce's crossover and pullup jumper on LeBron. Can't find a video of it, but that was sweet.
-Our 24-13 third quarter. We were a third quarter team last year, and we really took it to the Cavs tonight after halftime.
Things I didn't like:
-Our end of quarter execution. This has long been a problem for us under Doc, although less so last year now that we have more playmakers.
At the end of the first half tonight, we ran a 1-4 flex set for Rajon Rondo, who penetrated and then found KG in the corner. Garnett had a good look that didn't go down. I don't mind the set, but what's KG doing 20 feet from the basket? That's a bit out of his range, and he's not going to get any offensive rebounds that far from the hoop.
Then, up three points late with a chance to ice it, we ran the screen and roll with Pierce and KG. Cleveland switched, but Pierce could only get a tough 17-foot fallaway off over Anderson Varejao. Paul needs to do a better job exploiting the mismatch there. Sideshow Anderson is a good defender, but if Pierce can't get the space to squeeze off a better shot, he needs to go to the bucket and try to get a call.
-Kendrick Perkins. Last year, Perk didn't play much late. Without Posey to play our small lineup, we'll likely be counting on fourth quarter minutes from Perk. There's absolutely no reason for Perk to foul out against the Cavs like he did tonight; Zydrunas Ilgauskas is essentially a jumpshooter and the rest of Cleveland's bigs aren't good enough to commit fouls against.
-Rondo's dumb foul on LeBron up four with less than ten seconds to go. We missed a free throw and Rondo tried to steal the rebound from LeBron and got the whistle. I thought Rondo played a very good game overall, but this was just a dumb basketball play. I joked that Rondo was trying to further shatter LeBron's confidence at the line (he had just missed the first of a pair the last time downcourt, and he missed the front end this time, as well), but it was just a bad play.
Can't complain with 1-0, though, particularly when the 1 came against what most consider to be the main competition for the East title.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Finally!
The title defense begins tonight in Boston against the Cavs. It's a national TV game -- 8 p.m. on TNT. It's the first of 25 national TV dates for us, and we've got another seven on NBATV. Almost makes buying NBA League Pass not worth it.
Almost.
About the Cavs: They're obviously on the short list of championship contenders from the Eastern Conference. We split four regular-season matchups with them last year, winning 80-70 and 92-87 at home, and losing 109-104 and 114-113 in Cleveland. And, of course, they took us to seven games in the Eastern Conference semis.
One of our regular-season wins came when they were without LeBron due to injury; one of theirs came when we were without KG due to injury. Of the two regular-season games the two teams played at full-strength last year, one was played before the Cavs sent Drew Gooden to the Bulls, one after.
It seems weird to take a team that has LeBron James and say that Drew Gooden was the key difference between the two games, but the stats don't lie. Gooden got 24 against us in that 109-104 game at the end of November. After that, we beat them when they didn't have LeBron, nearly beat them when we didn't have KG, and beat them at full strength (after Gooden was shipped).
My theory is that Boston's defense is so dependent on Garnett's help D that a scoring power forward is a key to beating the Celtics. KG can surely guard Gooden one-on-one, but if he plays "honest," the Cs aren't going to be as good on defense (and, of course, it's hard to play straight up when the other team has LeBron James). Gooden killed us in that first game, hitting shots when KG wandered, thereby forcing Garnett to play more honest than usual. When Gooden was replaced in the starting lineup with Ben Wallace after the trade, Garnett could go back to his outstanding help defense without repercussion.
Cleveland hasn't solved that problem yet (although based on what I saw in the Vegas Summer League, rookie J.J. Hickson could be the answer sooner rather than later), but they did add an important piece in former Milwaukee point guard Mo Williams. LeBron has basically run the show throughout his entire career in Cleveland, and while Mo is something more of a scorer than an assist guy, he's easily the best playermaker James has ever called a teammate in the NBA. It will be interesting to see how LeBron adjusts to playing off the ball a bit more, and how Mo regulates his own shot totals in the presence of a true superstar.
I think it's going to take a little time for that chemistry to work itself out, and the TD Banknorth Garden will be rocking on opening night. It's always a risk to pick against LeBron, and I'm not going to get into the habit of picking games, but I see a relatively comfortable Boston victory. I expect the margin to be double digits, but that won't be a true representation of how good Cleveland is and how close the teams really are.
Almost.
About the Cavs: They're obviously on the short list of championship contenders from the Eastern Conference. We split four regular-season matchups with them last year, winning 80-70 and 92-87 at home, and losing 109-104 and 114-113 in Cleveland. And, of course, they took us to seven games in the Eastern Conference semis.
One of our regular-season wins came when they were without LeBron due to injury; one of theirs came when we were without KG due to injury. Of the two regular-season games the two teams played at full-strength last year, one was played before the Cavs sent Drew Gooden to the Bulls, one after.
It seems weird to take a team that has LeBron James and say that Drew Gooden was the key difference between the two games, but the stats don't lie. Gooden got 24 against us in that 109-104 game at the end of November. After that, we beat them when they didn't have LeBron, nearly beat them when we didn't have KG, and beat them at full strength (after Gooden was shipped).
My theory is that Boston's defense is so dependent on Garnett's help D that a scoring power forward is a key to beating the Celtics. KG can surely guard Gooden one-on-one, but if he plays "honest," the Cs aren't going to be as good on defense (and, of course, it's hard to play straight up when the other team has LeBron James). Gooden killed us in that first game, hitting shots when KG wandered, thereby forcing Garnett to play more honest than usual. When Gooden was replaced in the starting lineup with Ben Wallace after the trade, Garnett could go back to his outstanding help defense without repercussion.
Cleveland hasn't solved that problem yet (although based on what I saw in the Vegas Summer League, rookie J.J. Hickson could be the answer sooner rather than later), but they did add an important piece in former Milwaukee point guard Mo Williams. LeBron has basically run the show throughout his entire career in Cleveland, and while Mo is something more of a scorer than an assist guy, he's easily the best playermaker James has ever called a teammate in the NBA. It will be interesting to see how LeBron adjusts to playing off the ball a bit more, and how Mo regulates his own shot totals in the presence of a true superstar.
I think it's going to take a little time for that chemistry to work itself out, and the TD Banknorth Garden will be rocking on opening night. It's always a risk to pick against LeBron, and I'm not going to get into the habit of picking games, but I see a relatively comfortable Boston victory. I expect the margin to be double digits, but that won't be a true representation of how good Cleveland is and how close the teams really are.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Season Outlook
Even those of us who thought the Celtics would be good last year -- those who thought 60 wins was a real possibility -- couldn't have anticipated they'd be as good as they were. Not many teams have won 66 regular season games.
It'd be foolish to expect it again.
First, the Celtics didn't add anybody particularly noteworthy this offseason, and lost someone very noteworthy, James Posey. I have only a cursory understanding of this newfangled "win shares" statistic, but some brief research on Wikipedia and Basketball Reference shows (I think) that Posey was worth about two wins to the Cs last year. I'm not sure there's anyone on the roster to pick up that slack.
Second, quite a few teams have gotten better. New Orleans added Posey. The Lakers have a full season of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol in the post. Houston added Ron Artest. Portland -- with Greg Oden and another year of experience -- should be better. We only play 30 games a year against the West, but we went 25-5 in those games last year, including a remarkable road trip where we swept San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas in the span of four days. I'd expect a couple more losses against the West this season.
The East also has several teams that have gotten better. Cleveland finally has a point guard (Mo Williams). Philadelphia added Elton Brand and suddenly became a real contender in the conference. Miami has a presumably healthy Dwyane Wade, a full season (if he isn't traded) of Shawn Marion, and Michael Beasley. Toronto has finally turned the reins over to Jose Calderon, and added Jermaine O'Neal to the fold. Chicago now has Derrick Rose, and frankly shouldn't have been as bad as their 33-49 record last year. A couple of more losses against improved East foes seems reasonable as well.
Wait, you're saying. If all these teams got better by adding players, surely there are teams got worse because they lost players. That's true, of course. But in the course of an 82-game season, a team is always going to lose a couple of games to a team they "shouldn't" lose to. Even the 95-96 Bulls -- who hold the NBA record with 72 regular season wins -- lost to the 35-57 Denver Nuggets, and, of all teams, the 21-61 Toronto Raptors.
For Boston last year, it was the Charlotte Bobcats, a fairly miserable franchise that got one of its 32 wins last year against the Cs (and was this improbable Eddie House steal and Ray Allen three away from winning another against the eventual champs). Minnesota (they of the 22-60 record last season) had a possession to beat us at the Garden in January, and we needed a steal and subsequent Leon Powe buzzer-beater to beat the T-Wolves in Minneapolis a couple weeks later. So while I don't expect us to go 1-3 against the Wizards again like we did last year, I would once again expect a defeat or two against non-playoff teams.
Finally, we stayed pretty damn healthy last year. Paul Pierce played 80 games; Ray Allen played 73; and Kevin Garnett played 71. Unless you're talking about Yao Ming or Marcus Camby, injuries are impossible to predict, but players tend to have more health problems as they age (Zydrunas Ilgauskas excepted). We went 7-2 without KG when he was hampered by an ab injury, but the loss of Posey depletes our frontcourt in such a way that we can't expect to do as well should KG or Pierce miss any significant time this year. Ray is a little more replaceable, given that Tony Allen appears to be back in form.
The win total over/under opened in Vegas at 56.5. I think that's a bit low, but I wouldn't go too much higher. My non-scientific prediction: 60-22.
It'd be foolish to expect it again.
First, the Celtics didn't add anybody particularly noteworthy this offseason, and lost someone very noteworthy, James Posey. I have only a cursory understanding of this newfangled "win shares" statistic, but some brief research on Wikipedia and Basketball Reference shows (I think) that Posey was worth about two wins to the Cs last year. I'm not sure there's anyone on the roster to pick up that slack.
Second, quite a few teams have gotten better. New Orleans added Posey. The Lakers have a full season of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol in the post. Houston added Ron Artest. Portland -- with Greg Oden and another year of experience -- should be better. We only play 30 games a year against the West, but we went 25-5 in those games last year, including a remarkable road trip where we swept San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas in the span of four days. I'd expect a couple more losses against the West this season.
The East also has several teams that have gotten better. Cleveland finally has a point guard (Mo Williams). Philadelphia added Elton Brand and suddenly became a real contender in the conference. Miami has a presumably healthy Dwyane Wade, a full season (if he isn't traded) of Shawn Marion, and Michael Beasley. Toronto has finally turned the reins over to Jose Calderon, and added Jermaine O'Neal to the fold. Chicago now has Derrick Rose, and frankly shouldn't have been as bad as their 33-49 record last year. A couple of more losses against improved East foes seems reasonable as well.
Wait, you're saying. If all these teams got better by adding players, surely there are teams got worse because they lost players. That's true, of course. But in the course of an 82-game season, a team is always going to lose a couple of games to a team they "shouldn't" lose to. Even the 95-96 Bulls -- who hold the NBA record with 72 regular season wins -- lost to the 35-57 Denver Nuggets, and, of all teams, the 21-61 Toronto Raptors.
For Boston last year, it was the Charlotte Bobcats, a fairly miserable franchise that got one of its 32 wins last year against the Cs (and was this improbable Eddie House steal and Ray Allen three away from winning another against the eventual champs). Minnesota (they of the 22-60 record last season) had a possession to beat us at the Garden in January, and we needed a steal and subsequent Leon Powe buzzer-beater to beat the T-Wolves in Minneapolis a couple weeks later. So while I don't expect us to go 1-3 against the Wizards again like we did last year, I would once again expect a defeat or two against non-playoff teams.
Finally, we stayed pretty damn healthy last year. Paul Pierce played 80 games; Ray Allen played 73; and Kevin Garnett played 71. Unless you're talking about Yao Ming or Marcus Camby, injuries are impossible to predict, but players tend to have more health problems as they age (Zydrunas Ilgauskas excepted). We went 7-2 without KG when he was hampered by an ab injury, but the loss of Posey depletes our frontcourt in such a way that we can't expect to do as well should KG or Pierce miss any significant time this year. Ray is a little more replaceable, given that Tony Allen appears to be back in form.
The win total over/under opened in Vegas at 56.5. I think that's a bit low, but I wouldn't go too much higher. My non-scientific prediction: 60-22.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Preseason: Celtics 101, Knicks 90
Didn't watch the final preseason tuneup, either, but some things from the boxscore point to interesting and encouraging trends.
First, the most obvious stuff: 20 points from Eddie House against the Knicks; 19 from Leon Powe. In the eight preseason games, Eddie averaged 14.1 and Powe 10.6. I wouldn't expect that much from House during the regular season, but I do think Powe can give us something close to that, provided he doesn't split minutes with Glen Davis like he did last year. Preliminary indications are that the backup 4 spot is Powe's to lose, so he'll have the chance to prove himself.
Either way, that these two pick up their scoring is vital to the team's success this year, now that James Posey is gone. You've never had to twist House's arm to get him to try and score, but with Posey gone we need some guys on the second team to assert themselves offensively.
A finally healthy Tony Allen might also be the answer. He had two monster games in the preseason, going for 25 against the Cavaliers and hanging 32 on the nets. However, he was in double figures only two other times. I think I'd prefer a less prolific, more consistent effort from him in the regular season, but we do need him to have the year he was having in 2006-2007 before he blew out his knee.
Bill Walker and Patrick O'Bryant each had two games at the start of the preseason, then contributed little statistically the rest of the way. That's fine, particularly if House, Powe, and Allen can pick up the scoring load on the second team. Walker and O'Bryant will be useful to the team if they can steal minutes of rest for the regulars, chipping in with solid defense, rebounding, and a bucket or two. The key is that when they're out there, they don't hurt the team.
Finally, Sam Cassell as a DNP again, meaning he didn't play during the preseason. Halfway down this article from The Boston Globe there's an item about Sam. I'll quote it, to make it easy:
"Sam Cassell did not play in the preseason, contributing as an unofficial assistant coach. 'If my number is called, I'm ready,' Cassell said. 'I am keeping [the other players] sharp. I've been doing this for a while, it's not something that just started.' Cassell's advice for Pruitt? 'Play the game,' Cassell said. 'He'll be all right. They have been grooming him the whole year. He took his lumps last year and now he's ready to perform and make a statement for himself. He understands he belongs out there. This year he has a swagger and he's ready.'"
It certainly doesn't sound like Sam plans on playing much this year. I had thought that Pruitt was getting minutes just for the sake of getting him some run, but could he have Sam's spot in the rotation?
First, the most obvious stuff: 20 points from Eddie House against the Knicks; 19 from Leon Powe. In the eight preseason games, Eddie averaged 14.1 and Powe 10.6. I wouldn't expect that much from House during the regular season, but I do think Powe can give us something close to that, provided he doesn't split minutes with Glen Davis like he did last year. Preliminary indications are that the backup 4 spot is Powe's to lose, so he'll have the chance to prove himself.
Either way, that these two pick up their scoring is vital to the team's success this year, now that James Posey is gone. You've never had to twist House's arm to get him to try and score, but with Posey gone we need some guys on the second team to assert themselves offensively.
A finally healthy Tony Allen might also be the answer. He had two monster games in the preseason, going for 25 against the Cavaliers and hanging 32 on the nets. However, he was in double figures only two other times. I think I'd prefer a less prolific, more consistent effort from him in the regular season, but we do need him to have the year he was having in 2006-2007 before he blew out his knee.
Bill Walker and Patrick O'Bryant each had two games at the start of the preseason, then contributed little statistically the rest of the way. That's fine, particularly if House, Powe, and Allen can pick up the scoring load on the second team. Walker and O'Bryant will be useful to the team if they can steal minutes of rest for the regulars, chipping in with solid defense, rebounding, and a bucket or two. The key is that when they're out there, they don't hurt the team.
Finally, Sam Cassell as a DNP again, meaning he didn't play during the preseason. Halfway down this article from The Boston Globe there's an item about Sam. I'll quote it, to make it easy:
"Sam Cassell did not play in the preseason, contributing as an unofficial assistant coach. 'If my number is called, I'm ready,' Cassell said. 'I am keeping [the other players] sharp. I've been doing this for a while, it's not something that just started.' Cassell's advice for Pruitt? 'Play the game,' Cassell said. 'He'll be all right. They have been grooming him the whole year. He took his lumps last year and now he's ready to perform and make a statement for himself. He understands he belongs out there. This year he has a swagger and he's ready.'"
It certainly doesn't sound like Sam plans on playing much this year. I had thought that Pruitt was getting minutes just for the sake of getting him some run, but could he have Sam's spot in the rotation?
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Miles the Odd Man Out
If you hadn't heard, the Celtics trimmed their roster down to the maximum of 15 players by waiving Darius Miles.
I was hoping Miles was going to step in and contribute for us this year, but everything I've seen just suggests that he didn't have it in him. So I'm not upset that he got cut. But this does put us in an interesting spot at small forward.
Cutting Miles underscores, however, how important it was that we re-sign James Posey. Paul Pierce's only backup right now is Bill Walker, an explosive rookie who I've taken to calling Billy Sky. I'm high on Walker, but he's a first-year player with a history of injures. Not the best insurance policy. Tony Allen will probably take some minutes backing up Pierce, but he's a little small to guard some NBA threes.
Frankly, I think Posey's contributons, while no doubt crucial to our success last year, were a little overrated by the offseason. It was Pierce, not Posey, who did most of the heavy lifting in effectively corralling LeBron James and Kobe Bryant in the playoffs last year.
However, Posey could play both forward spots, and our most effective crunch-time lineup last year had Kevin Garnett sliding over to the 5, with Posey playing four. If we want to do that this year, Leon Powe will have to come in to play the 4. While there probably aren't too many people who are bigger Powe fans than I am, we can all agree that Powe doesn't bring the same defensive reputation and offensive diversity that Posey did.
So while Posey objectively may not have been worth the four-year, $25 million deal he ultimately got from the New Orleans Hornets, he may have been worth that to us.
What bothers me most about why we didn't re-sign Posey is the fact that the argument wasn't about money, but years; Posey wanted four years, we were reluctant to give him more than three. While I recognize that Cs ownership is trying to ease the transition from the Pierce-Garnett-Ray Allen era to whatever era is next -- they've staggered those deals so that Allen is up in 2010, Pierce in 2011, and Garnett in 2012 -- realistically, we're only going to contend for two more years before we take a year or two to reload. By the time Posey's deal became onerous, our window would be closed. And expiring contracts of veterans are valuable trade chips in the NBA. That's why Brian Scalabrine, whose $3.4 million comes off our books next year, still has a job even though he won't contribute and probably won't have a job after his current deal is done -- his contract can be traded to a team looking to rebuild in free agency.
When we traded for KG and Ray, we traded our future for the present. We should have been consistent with that and re-signed Posey.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Preseason: Celtics 83, Nets 66
I obviously didn't see this one, but one thing strikes me as I look through the boxscore:
Gabe Pruitt had 11 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists.
It's only preseason. And I'm sure they are skeptics who say that Pruitt's line is proof of the NBA maxim that minutes=stats (Gabe played 44 last night). But I liked what I saw out of Pruitt when he did get in the games in garbage time in his rookie year, and I'm taking this as another sign that he can play in this league.
Pruitt's a 6'4" point guard who can play D and shoot it a little bit. I really like his midrange game, and he hit three of six three-pointers last night.
It's hard to see where Pruitt might fit into the rotation this year. Rajon Rondo will once again log the majority of the minutes at point guard, and Pruitt's behind Eddie House and Sam Cassell on the depth chart, with Tony Allen backing up Ray Allen at the 2. However, TA will likely spend time as Paul Pierce's understudy, since the only other small forward on the roster is explosive rookie Bill Walker. And Cassell was hardly a world-beater after joining the Celtics late in the season. If Cassell really is washed up, Pruitt could prove valuable this year. While he's not really strong, his height means he could play alongside Rondo against some teams. And looking forward, even though he's not a House-caliber sniper, he could be a cheap, serviceable replacement when Eddie's contract is up after the 2009-10 season.
There was some thought that he'd be the one cut before the season.* I'm glad that's not the case.
*I'll have a column about the Celtics waiving Darius Miles in the next day or so.
-Saw this article while reading about the game. Said Doc Rivers of the Nets, who project to be in the bottom quartile of NBA teams this year: "I love what they're doing, I really do."
"What they're doing," by the way, is clearing cap room to make a run at LeBron James when the King becomes a free agent in two years. They're doing it smartly, trading vets like Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson for young guys like Devin Harris and Yi Jianlian, in the hopes that these guys will be ready to blossom if and when they land LeBron.
Anyway, the reason I bring it up is because the article mentions that Doc is impressed with Nets rookie shooting guard Chris Douglas-Roberts. CDR was one of two players I wanted with the 30th overall pick in June's draft. (Bill Walker, who Boston bought from Washington after the Wizards drafted him 47th overall, was the other.) Instead we took J.R. Giddens, and Douglas-Roberts went 40th to New Jersey.
Why the front office liked Giddens more than Douglas-Roberts is a mystery to me. Giddens was essentially kicked off the team at Kansas and was suspended for a spell after transferring to New Mexico. I didn't see him at New Mexico, but what I remember of him at Kansas is that he's an athletic, one-dimensional chucker.
Douglas-Roberts, on the other hand, is a smooth wing with a great mid-range game and the ability to create his own shot. He's also 6'7" to Giddens' 6'5". CDR isn't as athletic as Giddens, and so there may have been some concerns about his defense.
Still, when faced with two similar players, why not take the one who is two inches taller and isn't a headcase?
Gabe Pruitt had 11 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists.
It's only preseason. And I'm sure they are skeptics who say that Pruitt's line is proof of the NBA maxim that minutes=stats (Gabe played 44 last night). But I liked what I saw out of Pruitt when he did get in the games in garbage time in his rookie year, and I'm taking this as another sign that he can play in this league.
Pruitt's a 6'4" point guard who can play D and shoot it a little bit. I really like his midrange game, and he hit three of six three-pointers last night.
It's hard to see where Pruitt might fit into the rotation this year. Rajon Rondo will once again log the majority of the minutes at point guard, and Pruitt's behind Eddie House and Sam Cassell on the depth chart, with Tony Allen backing up Ray Allen at the 2. However, TA will likely spend time as Paul Pierce's understudy, since the only other small forward on the roster is explosive rookie Bill Walker. And Cassell was hardly a world-beater after joining the Celtics late in the season. If Cassell really is washed up, Pruitt could prove valuable this year. While he's not really strong, his height means he could play alongside Rondo against some teams. And looking forward, even though he's not a House-caliber sniper, he could be a cheap, serviceable replacement when Eddie's contract is up after the 2009-10 season.
There was some thought that he'd be the one cut before the season.* I'm glad that's not the case.
*I'll have a column about the Celtics waiving Darius Miles in the next day or so.
-Saw this article while reading about the game. Said Doc Rivers of the Nets, who project to be in the bottom quartile of NBA teams this year: "I love what they're doing, I really do."
"What they're doing," by the way, is clearing cap room to make a run at LeBron James when the King becomes a free agent in two years. They're doing it smartly, trading vets like Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson for young guys like Devin Harris and Yi Jianlian, in the hopes that these guys will be ready to blossom if and when they land LeBron.
Anyway, the reason I bring it up is because the article mentions that Doc is impressed with Nets rookie shooting guard Chris Douglas-Roberts. CDR was one of two players I wanted with the 30th overall pick in June's draft. (Bill Walker, who Boston bought from Washington after the Wizards drafted him 47th overall, was the other.) Instead we took J.R. Giddens, and Douglas-Roberts went 40th to New Jersey.
Why the front office liked Giddens more than Douglas-Roberts is a mystery to me. Giddens was essentially kicked off the team at Kansas and was suspended for a spell after transferring to New Mexico. I didn't see him at New Mexico, but what I remember of him at Kansas is that he's an athletic, one-dimensional chucker.
Douglas-Roberts, on the other hand, is a smooth wing with a great mid-range game and the ability to create his own shot. He's also 6'7" to Giddens' 6'5". CDR isn't as athletic as Giddens, and so there may have been some concerns about his defense.
Still, when faced with two similar players, why not take the one who is two inches taller and isn't a headcase?
Hello, Internet
Background
I'm a life-long Celtics fan. I grew up in New England (Vermont, to be specific), and so most of my friends are Celtics fans as well. I recently moved across the country to Los Angeles, California, to go to law school at USC. With the three-hour difference and the fact that I'm no longer sitting in front of a computer all day, I figure it'll be hard to talk about all things green-and-white with my friends back east. This blog is an attempt to facilitate that kind of conversation, as well as to continue writing (I was a journalism major and worked as a trade journalist for five years after school) and to have a place to record my observations about the Celtics and the NBA. If I get some new readers and friends along the way, all the better.
I'm not sure how often I'll post. I plan on buying NBA League Pass and watching Celtics games over the Internet, and I'll try to post about every game. I don't spend a ton of time reading the other Celtics sites -- some of which I have added or will be adding to the links on the right hand side of the page. I suggest you visit those for Celtics news. CelticsBlog has a daily links entry that is quite useful.
I'm also not sure if I'll get around to sprucing this sucker up with graphics and features. We'll see what time allows.
Finally, I'm going to use "us" and "we" in this space to describe the Celtics. No, I don't play for the team. Deal with it.
Banner 17
Like it was for many Celtics fans, the summer of 2007 was a roller-coaster. I had grown quite attached to the idea of getting Greg Oden or Kevin Durant in the draft, and was left to stare at the screen in shock when we fell to the fifth pick. I was intrigued by the rumors of trading for Kevin Garnett, but ultimately against it, since I thought Al Jefferson was too big a price to pay for a guy who wasn't going to put us over the top. I was fully behind the deal, however, once we traded the five and spare parts for Ray Allen. The moment I heard we shipped Jefferson et al to Minnesota for Garnett, I began thinking that we had a real shot at the title.
A buddy and I split NBA League Pass and I watched about 75 regular season games, and everything in the playoffs. A highlight was driving from DC to Boston with a couple of buddies to attend Game 1 of the Finals against the Lakers; my ticket cost me $350 on Stubhub and the experience was worth easily three times that amount.
I was born in 1980, and was not yet six years old the last time the Celtics won a title. My favorite Celtic ever is the late Dennis Johnson, but the truth is that I just don't remember all that much about the Cs in their heyday.
That made last year particularly special. While I am a fan of other sports teams that have had success -- the New York Giants are my favorite football team -- I don't care about the Giants the same way I do about the Celtics. Getting to spend a season following a team on their way to a championship was truly a life-changing experience for me.
Doc Rivers
I have been critical of Doc ever since we hired him, and for the most part, I continue to be. His rotations are terrible -- what he did with Eddie House and Leon Powe in last year's playoffs borders on criminal -- and I've watched too many Celtics games where the fourth-quarter offense consists of letting Paul Pierce go one-on-one to think that Rivers has any merit as an X-and-O coach.
That said, I've softened on him some. First of all, he is by all accounts a good guy, and the players like him. I actually stopped watching his pregame interviews because he's so damn likable, and it's hard for me to say the bad things I want to say about Doc when I know he's a nice guy.
Secondly, while I don't give Doc the credit some people do for getting the team to play together last year -- doing so doesn't give enough credit to the players, in my opinion -- he did coach us to a championship. While I once might have insisted that Boston won the title in spite of him, I won't say that now.
Finally, as pointed out in this uncharacteristically wordy piece (people in glass houses, I know, I know) from ESPN's John Hollinger, Doc had the sense and lack of ego to let Tom Thibodeau run the defense. As Hollinger says, "not many head coaches would be willing to cede this much control, but it couldn't possibly have worked any better."
***
So now you know a little bit about me and this blog. I look forward to reading your comments as we shoot for banner number 18.
I'm a life-long Celtics fan. I grew up in New England (Vermont, to be specific), and so most of my friends are Celtics fans as well. I recently moved across the country to Los Angeles, California, to go to law school at USC. With the three-hour difference and the fact that I'm no longer sitting in front of a computer all day, I figure it'll be hard to talk about all things green-and-white with my friends back east. This blog is an attempt to facilitate that kind of conversation, as well as to continue writing (I was a journalism major and worked as a trade journalist for five years after school) and to have a place to record my observations about the Celtics and the NBA. If I get some new readers and friends along the way, all the better.
I'm not sure how often I'll post. I plan on buying NBA League Pass and watching Celtics games over the Internet, and I'll try to post about every game. I don't spend a ton of time reading the other Celtics sites -- some of which I have added or will be adding to the links on the right hand side of the page. I suggest you visit those for Celtics news. CelticsBlog has a daily links entry that is quite useful.
I'm also not sure if I'll get around to sprucing this sucker up with graphics and features. We'll see what time allows.
Finally, I'm going to use "us" and "we" in this space to describe the Celtics. No, I don't play for the team. Deal with it.
Banner 17
Like it was for many Celtics fans, the summer of 2007 was a roller-coaster. I had grown quite attached to the idea of getting Greg Oden or Kevin Durant in the draft, and was left to stare at the screen in shock when we fell to the fifth pick. I was intrigued by the rumors of trading for Kevin Garnett, but ultimately against it, since I thought Al Jefferson was too big a price to pay for a guy who wasn't going to put us over the top. I was fully behind the deal, however, once we traded the five and spare parts for Ray Allen. The moment I heard we shipped Jefferson et al to Minnesota for Garnett, I began thinking that we had a real shot at the title.
A buddy and I split NBA League Pass and I watched about 75 regular season games, and everything in the playoffs. A highlight was driving from DC to Boston with a couple of buddies to attend Game 1 of the Finals against the Lakers; my ticket cost me $350 on Stubhub and the experience was worth easily three times that amount.
I was born in 1980, and was not yet six years old the last time the Celtics won a title. My favorite Celtic ever is the late Dennis Johnson, but the truth is that I just don't remember all that much about the Cs in their heyday.
That made last year particularly special. While I am a fan of other sports teams that have had success -- the New York Giants are my favorite football team -- I don't care about the Giants the same way I do about the Celtics. Getting to spend a season following a team on their way to a championship was truly a life-changing experience for me.
Doc Rivers
I have been critical of Doc ever since we hired him, and for the most part, I continue to be. His rotations are terrible -- what he did with Eddie House and Leon Powe in last year's playoffs borders on criminal -- and I've watched too many Celtics games where the fourth-quarter offense consists of letting Paul Pierce go one-on-one to think that Rivers has any merit as an X-and-O coach.
That said, I've softened on him some. First of all, he is by all accounts a good guy, and the players like him. I actually stopped watching his pregame interviews because he's so damn likable, and it's hard for me to say the bad things I want to say about Doc when I know he's a nice guy.
Secondly, while I don't give Doc the credit some people do for getting the team to play together last year -- doing so doesn't give enough credit to the players, in my opinion -- he did coach us to a championship. While I once might have insisted that Boston won the title in spite of him, I won't say that now.
Finally, as pointed out in this uncharacteristically wordy piece (people in glass houses, I know, I know) from ESPN's John Hollinger, Doc had the sense and lack of ego to let Tom Thibodeau run the defense. As Hollinger says, "not many head coaches would be willing to cede this much control, but it couldn't possibly have worked any better."
***
So now you know a little bit about me and this blog. I look forward to reading your comments as we shoot for banner number 18.
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