At Atlanta: Friday, April 20, 7 p.m. Eastern, ESPN.
Friday's game in Atlanta could be huge, or it could be totally meaningless. It all depends on Doc Rivers' tack in the final week of the season, and, to a lesser extent, whether we win or lose.
I should explain. The NBA's somewhat unique playoff seeding rules mandate that no division winner can be seeded any worse than fourth, regardless of regular season record. As the champions of the Atlantic Division, then, the Celtics cannot be any worse than the four seed in the East.
However, home-court advantage during a playoff series is determined by overall record. And so if Boston, the four seed, has a regular season record that it worse than their opponent's, that opponent will have home court advantage in the first-round playoff series.
Currently, the 37-26 Celtics are a half-game behind the 37-25 Hawks in the standings, which means that if the season ended right now, Boston would be opening the playoffs in Atlanta. The Celtics control their own destiny, however; they already have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Hawks, and a win over Atlanta plus victories in their final two games against Miami and Milwaukee would make whatever the Hawks do after Friday's game irrelevant for purposes of home-court in the first round.
There's another major consideration, of course, one that comes up every season, but is of particular concern in this abridged season: rest. Doc has to decide whether to go all out for home-court advantage or give the guys some time off to ensure that they're relatively fresh for the playoffs. I haven't seen anything that indicates which way he's leaning.
We probably won't know by how he approaches Friday's game, either. Rajon R-ndo, Ray Allen, and Mickael Pietrus all stayed back in Boston with injuries, which means that Doc has little choice but to play the rest of the guys at least regular minutes. And if Boston loses, I think Doc will lean towards rest, if he wasn't already: Boston would be a game and a half back with two to play, meaning they'd have to beat the Heat and Bucks and hope Atlanta loses to two of the Knicks, Clippers, and Mavericks next week, all at home.
But if Boston can pull out a win on Friday night, things get interesting. The other issue is that while some guys undoubtedly could use the rest, others -- like Allen, assuming he's available -- could use a game or two to get back up to speed.
Or, it might not matter; Doc may decide to rest guys no matter what, and it'd be hard to blame him. But if you're searching for a storyline with the division wrapped up, this is it.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
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