Celts Tie Sixers Atop the Atlantic

Since I last posted:

Philadelphia 99, Boston 86
Boston 88, Washington 76
Boston 102, Charlotte 95

A lot's happened in those three games, but what's most important is really what hasn't happened: Ray Allen hasn't played. The veteran shooting guard has a sore right ankle, which he reportedly injured back on March 12, even though he didn't sit out til last Friday. I haven't seen any sort of timetable for Allen's return, but I take the fact that he was able to play with the injury for a while as a good sign, though there is of course the chance that in doing so, he injured it more seriously. Hopefully, the team and Allen are just being cautious.

Allen's absence from the lineup got even more serious in the second quarter of the Philly game, as his replacement, Mickael Pietrus, took a nasty spill and banged his head on the court, eventually being carried off on a stretcher as a precaution. (Side note: I was watching the NCAAs at the time and flipped over to ESPN to check on the Celtics game at pretty much the exact second that ESPN went to commercial. Because the medical personnel tending to Pietrus blocked much of the view, all I saw before the cameras cut away was an unidentifiable Celtic wearing a jersey with a last name that started "P-I-E". I'll cop to being a bit relieved when I found out that it was Pietrus, not Paul Pierce -- and then guilty, and then relieved -- both for Pietrus and for myself, for karma purposes -- when I learned that Pietrus had escaped serious injury and should return to action soon.)

All of this sets the stage as to why Avery Bradley has been in the starting lineup the last two games, playing 40 minutes a night. The second-year guard announced his presence in a big way against the Wizards, hitting his first seven shots on the way to a career-high 23 points. (Weird fact: the Celtics were up 19 at halftime against the Wizards, and Bradley and Greg Stiemsma were the team's leading scorers.) Bradley added 11 points against the Bobcats on Monday, and he's developed into a decent rotation player. His jumper still needs a lot of work, but one thing he's done well all year is move well without the basketball. I first noticed it when played in place of Rajon R-ndo for a few games in late January, and Pierce seemed to find him a lot on cuts to the basket. Bradley knocked down a couple of jumpers against the Wizards, but a lot of his points in the last couple of games have come on layups.

What else? Center Ryan Hollins made his Celtics debut in one of the weirdest ways I can imagine: as the bench player elected by Philly coach Doug Collins to take the free throws in place of Pietrus, who was fouled on the play he was injured. (Hollins missed the first and made the second.) The long, athletic Hollins hasn't contributed much in limited court time over his first three games, but while Stiemsma has been playing his best ball of the season of late, I expect he'll have a larger role as the season wears on, now that Jermaine O'Neal and Chris Wilcox are both done for the season.

Finally, Monday in Charlotte, Pierce put the team on his back, leading all scorers with 36 points and helping the Cs hold off the Bobcats after blowing most of yet another big first-quarter lead. The Captain is now averaging 25.5 ppg and nine boards over the last four games.

Thanks to Philly's loss to Tim Duncan-less San Antonio on Sunday, Monday's win over Charlotte puts Boston into a tie atop the Atlantic Division. Whichever team can break the tie will be rewarded with the fourth seed in the East and a likely playoff matchup with Indiana or Atlanta, rather than the seventh and a first-round battle with Miami or Chicago. While it's true that the path to the Finals will probably run through the Heat or Bulls anyway, you never know when a big upset or an untimely injury might change the playoff landscape. (Last year, for instance, #8 Memphis beat #1 San Antonio in the first round of the West playoffs.) So Boston would like to earn the Atlantic title, if possible.

So how likely is it that the Celtics can capture their fifth straight division crown? I wish I had some scientific, math-based approach that could spit out a probability, but I don't. But as the brief analysis below shows, the reality is that Boston probably is an underdog, at this point, to beat out Philadelphia.

Let's start, though, with the things that do line up in Boston's favor. First, the game on April 8th between the two teams (the third and final meeting of the season), will be played in Boston. Philly won the first two matchups, which gives them the tiebreaker, so this opportunity to pick up a full game on them will be very important. Second, while both teams have 17 games remaining, Philly has just six home games, while Boston has eight. And the Sixers (10-12 away from home so far this season), like the Celts (10-14), haven't been that great on the road.

When you dig a little deeper, though, you find things starting to swing in Philly's favor. Both teams have four back-to-backs as well as one back-to-back-to-back. Each team will be on the second night of a back-to-back when they play each other on the 8th, so advantage Boston there. But the Celtics have three tough games on the second night of their other back-to-backs -- at Chicago, vs. Atlanta, and vs. Orlando. The Sixers get Atlanta in Philly and then Toronto twice (one home, one road) on the second night of their other back-to-backs, a significantly easier configuration than Boston's. And the Cs' back-to-back-to-back also puts them at a disadvantage, I think, even though traveling to Toronto, New Jersey, and Charlotte is less daunting than at Orlando, vs. Indiana, then at Cleveland; having three of your most winnable games in a back-to-back-to-back increases the probability of a "bad" loss, something the Celtics can't afford.


The teams have six games in common: they both host Atlanta and Orlando and travel to Indiana, Miami, Toronto, and New Jersey. The teams share a seventh common opponent, Milwaukee, though Boston gets the Bucks at home and Philly has them on the road. Subtract those seven games and the one between Boston and Philadelphia, and you have nine remaining games.

Boston: Home against Utah, Miami (twice), and San Antonio; at Minnesota, Chicago, Charlotte, New York, and Atlanta.
Philadelphia: Home against Cleveland, Toronto, New Jersey, and Indiana; at Washington, Orlando, Cleveland, New Jersey, and Detroit.

To put a point on it, the combined win-loss record of the nine teams in Boston's list is currently 256-185, a winning percentage of .580. Philly's list is a combined 171-269, a winning percentage of .389. Two of the Sixers' nine opponents have a winning record; two of Boston's have a losing record.

Finally, these two teams are about to play 17 basketball games in 31 days, one final push at the end of an already grueling season. Deep and youthful, less injury prone and more able to survive injuries, Philadelphia is built far better than Boston for a a run like the one that's upcoming. Indeed, should the teams remain close, Doc Rivers may have to decide between going all-out for the division and resting the veterans, with the second alternative quite possibly being the correct one. The Celtics are still in the running, but it's going to take something remarkable -- a remarkable stretch of basketball for Boston, or a remarkable choke job by Philly -- for it to happen.